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« Last edited by Joel on July 19, 2021, 01:49:19 AM »

Author Topic: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread  (Read 351388 times)

Offline ckmk47

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2280 on: May 01, 2020, 06:58:04 PM »
What about children whose parents are above 40
Lots of kids shouldn't be let free.
Those who live with 'at risk' individuals, for example.
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Offline ckmk47

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2281 on: May 01, 2020, 07:01:43 PM »
If you do this, there will be deaths. Deaths of the “statistically insignificant under 40s”, deaths of the slightly older parents of young children, deaths of the elderly who are cared for by aides and children. How many frum deaths will you take on your shoulders? I’d be hesitant to make such a bold statement.
Aren't we having deaths now from quarantine?  People at risk of loneliness and self harm when quarantined alone.  People who've lost their livelihood? etc.
Quarantine has a cost.


Is this true? Can you post a source?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2282 on: May 01, 2020, 07:02:57 PM »
Aren't we having deaths now from quarantine?  People at risk of loneliness and self harm when quarantined alone.  People who've lost their livelihood? etc.
Quarantine has a cost.
How are they every going to determine how many?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2283 on: May 01, 2020, 07:10:05 PM »
Aren't we having deaths now from quarantine?  People at risk of loneliness and self harm when quarantined alone.  People who've lost their livelihood? etc.
Quarantine has a cost.

A Hatzolo friend.
No, we’re not having deaths from quarantine. Please tell me someone you’ve heard of who’s died of quarantine. I can tell you more than a dozen I know very well personally including relatives who have died of COVID.

Where is this Hatzalah member located? Also, how significant has the uptick been?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2284 on: May 01, 2020, 07:16:33 PM »
No, we’re not having deaths from quarantine.
Really?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2285 on: May 01, 2020, 07:17:20 PM »
Really?
The Orthodox Jewish community has had no quarantine related deaths that I’m aware of. I asked him to let me know if we have. He implied that we already are
Aren't we having deaths now from quarantine?

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2286 on: May 01, 2020, 07:18:21 PM »
The Orthodox Jewish community has had no quarantine related deaths that I’m aware of. I asked him to let me know if we have.
...but you know there will be deaths related to the lockdown. It will be hard to document how many.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2287 on: May 01, 2020, 07:18:42 PM »
No, we’re not having deaths from quarantine. Please tell me someone you’ve heard of who’s died of quarantine. I can tell you more than a dozen I know very well personally including relatives who have died of COVID.

Where is this Hatzalah member located? Also, how significant has the uptick been?
You underestimate the long term effects of the quarantine.  emotionally and financially.
There is no way to get to ZERO covid deaths.  Just as we can't get to zero flu deaths, etc


BoroPark. 4 calls in the last 2 days, with 2 hospitalizations. Although I don't know what numbers he's comparing it to.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2288 on: May 01, 2020, 07:21:00 PM »
You underestimate the long term effects of the quarantine.  emotionally and financially.
There is no way to get to ZERO covid deaths.  Just as we can't get to zero flu deaths, etc


BoroPark. 4 calls in the last 2 days, with 2 hospitalizations. Although I don't know what numbers he's comparing it to.
That’s crazy, I didn’t know we are having new hospitalizations.

You said “aren’t we having deaths now”. I said no. Please point to an instance that you’re aware of. I’m not underestimating anything, I think you’re underestimating what LIFE is.

There is definitely a way to get to zero Covid deaths. Eliminate the illness.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2289 on: May 01, 2020, 07:22:17 PM »
...but you know there will be deaths related to the lockdown. It will be hard to document how many.
Correct, there will also be deaths as a result of COVID losses among family, friends, and students, though it’s hard to document how many. The charity thread can give you some inkling of the financial magnitude of some deaths, though.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2290 on: May 02, 2020, 09:32:19 PM »
PSA: the second wave of newly infected covid patients has started.  Hatzolo has seen an uptick in calls for covid.  We're all getting tired of this quarantine.  But those at risk must continue to be vigilant!
AFAIK, Hatzolah in Monsey has not taken anyone to the hospital due to covid, in a week (as of yesterday). 

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2291 on: May 02, 2020, 09:50:46 PM »
AFAIK, Hatzolah in Monsey has not taken anyone to the hospital due to covid, in a week (as of yesterday).

Look at the map of county doubling times. In Bergen county, the areas bordering NYC  and Lakewood it looks like it’s basically over while South Jersey which had almost no cases early on is now getting hit hard. All of NJ is under the same draconian social distancing guidelines. Why the discrepancy? Are the South Jersey folks worse at following social distancing rules, or is it that the virus basically hit enough people that it is approaching heard immunity in Bergen county and Lakewood? I think the latter is far more likely.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2292 on: May 02, 2020, 09:51:12 PM »
While everyone in my family had some symptoms. Only one of my daughters got a positive result in a recent antibody test. We are all fully recovered from whatever symptoms we had.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2293 on: May 02, 2020, 10:36:17 PM »
While everyone in my family had some symptoms. Only one of my daughters got a positive result in a recent antibody test. We are all fully recovered from whatever symptoms we had.
Did you all get tested while showing symptoms, and/or recently?

Look at the map of county doubling times. In Bergen county, the areas bordering NYC  and Lakewood it looks like it’s basically over while South Jersey which had almost no cases early on is now getting hit hard. All of NJ is under the same draconian social distancing guidelines. Why the discrepancy? Are the South Jersey folks worse at following social distancing rules, or is it that the virus basically hit enough people that it is approaching heard immunity in Bergen county and Lakewood? I think the latter is far more likely.
Where is this from? It’s definitely a strong possibility that there are enough infected that combined with the social distancing measures, they are bringing the R0 number way down (This does NOT mean herd immunity!!). This needs to be stressed very firmly: if the numbers are going down because of a large number of infected, that does NOT MEAN more won’t get sick if we lift distancing measures!! It just means there is resistance to spreading, and coupled with distancing, is keeping the virus at bay.

MANY many more (double? Triple?) can still get sick and die by “going back to normal”!

ETA: I’m not saying herd immunity isn’t a possibility. I’m just saying it’s highly improbable, and there certainly is no evidence of it as of yet, so acting upon that assumption would be very dangerous and foolish.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2020, 10:54:42 PM by S209 »
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2294 on: May 02, 2020, 10:43:53 PM »
Look at the map of county doubling times. In Bergen county, the areas bordering NYC  and Lakewood it looks like it’s basically over while South Jersey which had almost no cases early on is now getting hit hard. All of NJ is under the same draconian social distancing guidelines. Why the discrepancy? Are the South Jersey folks worse at following social distancing rules, or is it that the virus basically hit enough people that it is approaching heard immunity in Bergen county and Lakewood? I think the latter is far more likely.

I think the former is more likely. The areas that got hit hard earlier are far more likely to have taken social distancing measures much, much more more seriously over the last month. Areas like South Jersey are likely to have taken a lax approach, since they weren't as likely to have been personally affected.

I give this theory based on anecdotal evidence here in Florida, where it has been less hard hit than many other places. People with direct connections to Covid patients, both locally and in other parts of the country, are far more likely to take this seriously. Many here only know of this from the news, so they are pretty much living life as usual and looking at stay-at-home measures with annoyance.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2295 on: May 02, 2020, 10:52:26 PM »
Look at the map of county doubling times. In Bergen county, the areas bordering NYC  and Lakewood it looks like it’s basically over while South Jersey which had almost no cases early on is now getting hit hard. All of NJ is under the same draconian social distancing guidelines. Why the discrepancy? Are the South Jersey folks worse at following social distancing rules, or is it that the virus basically hit enough people that it is approaching heard immunity in Bergen county and Lakewood? I think the latter is far more likely.
By the way, Ocean County and Bergen County are 8th and 10th respectively out of 21 NJ Counties in new cases. Wouldn’t call that “basically over”. I also read that 6 out of 7 major hospitals in Central Jersey are on divert now, so that doesn’t sound great
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2296 on: May 02, 2020, 11:06:05 PM »
By the way, Ocean County and Bergen County are 8th and 10th respectively out of 21 NJ Counties in new cases. Wouldn’t call that “basically over”. I also read that 6 out of 7 major hospitals in Central Jersey are on divert now, so that doesn’t sound great
Could those be lagging indicators?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2297 on: May 02, 2020, 11:09:04 PM »
By the way, Ocean County and Bergen County are 8th and 10th respectively out of 21 NJ Counties in new cases. Wouldn’t call that “basically over”. I also read that 6 out of 7 major hospitals in Central Jersey are on divert now, so that doesn’t sound great

How do you square those numbers with 30 days plus doubling times vs single digit doubling times elsewhere? Doesn’t add up. Are they 8th and 10th in percentage or in absolute numbers which are a smaller percent than other less populated counties?

Hospitals are much better.
From today’s report:

“In all, the state’s hospitalized coronavirus patients have dropped by 1,000 over the last week, Gov. Phil Murphy said Saturday afternoon during his daily press briefing in Trenton.”

“Persichilli said hospitalizations have fallen 41% since April 14 in the state’s northern region and 26% in the central region. As the virus moves down the map, she said the state is seeing increased hospitalizations in the south, but with some “leveling off” over the past two days.”

My sister in law lost her sense of smell and taste 3.5 weeks ago. When she went to chemed for a throat culture this week they gave her a covid  test and she cane back positive for covid this Friday. That is now going to show as a brand new Lakewood infection when it is actually 3 weeks ago and is only showing up now because there are more tests available. If anything, true numbers of new onset are actually lower than indicated.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2020, 11:14:03 PM by Yard sale »

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2298 on: May 02, 2020, 11:17:51 PM »
Where is this from?
A tweet from Murphy today.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2299 on: May 02, 2020, 11:32:20 PM »
Someone I know is hosting people at their house, while also posting on social media thanking G-d that their family's symptoms have been mild. They are anti-vaxxers who think everyone's panic is overblown, and keep talking about antibody testing for herd immunity like we're already there..

Is there anything I can realistically do?