COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread

[CountValentine]

These things take time , unless we we're to say there is a nefarious reason that they want us to believe we will never be immune.

You need x amount of subjects that were confirmed positive. You then just track them. Seems simple to me but what do I know.

[Kobe Bryant]

The answer to that is pretty simple, we don't add the number of those who tested positive to antibodies to the denominator,  so the CFR will never be adjusted properly in a place like NY,  if we were to have a new hotspot elsewhere in the country, with aggressive testing the CFR will drop precipitously.

Presumably the rate of infection is still outpacing the rate of testing.

Thank you! Finally an answer that at least makes sense.

[CountValentine]

Maybe rephrase the question answer to where us simpletons can understand.

[S209]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/07/politics/trump-valet-tests-positive-covid-19/index.html

Trump, Fauci, and Pence are all of at risk age, and they congregate often with this guy..

[Kobe Bryant]

You need x amount of subjects that were confirmed positive. You then just track them. Seems simple to me but what do I know.

So only if they're asymptomatic can they get reinfected?
wouldn't the same hold true if for example one tested positive in the beginning of march, had all the symptoms, fully recovered and tested positive again, and once again has all the symptoms? Why haven't we seen or heard of at least a few hundred cases across the country?
P.s if they test positive and are asymptomatic and test positive once again, we would likely say it was a false positive.

[Kobe Bryant]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/07/politics/trump-valet-tests-positive-covid-19/index.html

Trump, Fauci, and Pence are all of at risk age, and they congregate often with this guy..

 "The President and the Vice President have since tested negative for the virus and they remain in great health."

Maybe they will start testing daily those that are in the immediate circle of POTUS.

[Kobe Bryant]

Lol, i thought that was pretty simple and informative.

[CountValentine]

So only if they're asymptomatic can they get reinfected?
wouldn't the same hold true if for example one tested positive in the beginning of march, had all the symptoms, fully recovered and tested positive again, and once again has all the symptoms? Why haven't we seen or heard of at least a few hundred cases across the country?
P.s if they test positive and are asymptomatic and test positive once again, we would likely say it was a false positive.

You need a controlled study. This isn't rocket science. The big issue right now is the validity of all these different tests.

[CountValentine]

Lol, i thought that was pretty simple and informative.

As I thought my original question was. 

[Lurker]

I ask this question every week. Our testing capacity keeps going up and fatality rate has increased again. Why is that and when should we see the fatality rate go down. Don't give me the BS it is a lagging indicator.

I have a more puzzling question. In the last 32 days, the US has seen between 26k-31k new cases every day (same source you gave). Given the changes to testing availability, stay-at-home restrictions, social distancing implementation, and mask usage, amongst a myriad of other variables, how has that number not left that range once over that time frame?

[Afrages6]

"The President and the Vice President have since tested negative for the virus and they remain in great health."

Maybe they will start testing daily those that are in the immediate circle of POTUS.

They test everyone that walks into the White House every day with rapid tests.

[CountValentine]

I have a more puzzling question. In the last 32 days, the US has seen between 26k-31k new cases every day (same source you gave). Given the changes to testing availability, stay-at-home restrictions, social distancing implementation, and mask usage, amongst a myriad of other variables, how has that number not left that range once over that time frame?

I will give two possibilities out of many.
1 - This virus is way more contagious than we understand.
2 - It is just going to run its course no matter what we do.

[Afrages6]

I will give two possibilities out of many.
1 - This virus is way more contagious than we understand.
2 - It is just going to run its course no matter what we do.

I truly believe at this point there is literally nothing we can do anymore to control this virus. It’s running it’s course all over the country no matter what we do.

[Lurker]

I will give two possibilities out of many.
1 - This virus is way more contagious than we understand.
2 - It is just going to run its course no matter what we do.

If it's more contagious and testing has increased, why haven't the new cases increased? They are in the same range as they've been for the last 32 days.

[Kobe Bryant]

The deaths per 1Mp will only go up, the reason why the fatality rate is not changing, is because we aren't changing the denominator based on the millions who have had it and tested positive for antibodies (and millions who have had it and haven't gotten tested for antibodies). 
There is no question that the fatality rate is around 0.5% or less.

Lol, i thought that was pretty simple and informative.

As I thought my original question was. 

Didn't realize we were rehashing...

[Euclid]

I will give two possibilities out of many.
1 - This virus is way more contagious than we understand.
2 - It is just going to run its course no matter what we do.

Other (smaller) countries have seen a decline, while the US has plateaued. Though it's a bit more subtle, new parts of the US are going up while NY/NJ are going down - so the rate looks the same, however it's really just shifting from NY/NJ elsewhere and isn't a true plateau.

[Kobe Bryant]

They test everyone that walks into the White House every day with rapid tests.

"Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and the senior staffers who regularly interact with them are still being tested weekly for coronavirus, two people familiar told CNN"

[S209]

I truly believe at this point there is literally nothing we can do anymore to control this virus. It’s running it’s course all over the country no matter what we do.

At this point? Did you change your mind from an earlier position, or you believed all along that we shouldn’t be social distancing? I’m curious

[Kobe Bryant]

At this point? Did you change your mind from an earlier position, or you believed all along that we shouldn’t be social distancing? I’m curious

I will give two possibilities out of many.
1 - This virus is way more contagious than we understand.
2 - It is just going to run its course no matter what we do.

Curious as well

[Lurker]

Other (smaller) countries have seen a decline, while the US has plateaued. Though it's a bit more subtle, new parts of the US are going up while NY/NJ are going down - so the rate looks the same, however it's really just shifting from NY/NJ elsewhere and isn't a true plateau.

I'd buy that over a smaller sample size... one week, two weeks, maybe. 32 days, not a single variation, not a single outlier? I'm not a scientist or a statistician, but I'd think that would be highly improbable. (Assuming the source numbers are correct, of course.)