COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread

[S209]

Curious as well

?

[Euclid]

I'd buy that over a smaller sample size... one week, two weeks, maybe. 32 days, not a single variation, not a single outlier? I'm not a scientist or a statistician, but I'd think that would be highly improbable. (Assuming the source numbers are correct, of course.)

Which part is improbable? 

[Kobe Bryant]

?

I truly believe at this point there is literally nothing we can do anymore to control this virus. It’s running it’s course all over the country no matter what we do.

[Afrages6]

At this point? Did you change your mind from an earlier position, or you believed all along that we shouldn’t be social distancing? I’m curious

If we would have closed the borders in early February and had a tough contact tracing system we could have stopped the virus. At this point the virus is everywhere and tracing is impossible unless no one in this country leaves the house for three weeks and we reset. We have basically completely lost the fight and there is no way we will take the drastic steps at this point to try and reverse the tide. We are in for a long slow burn which will last for an extended period of time.

I personally am a skeptic on social distancing as some sort of long term cure for the virus nor do i think it helps that much. The only way to combat this is a full lockdown with closed borders. Anything else just delays the inevitable

[S209]

As in, you’re curious what he believes as well? By all means, join me in my quest to discover the answer

[Afrages6]

As in, you’re curious what he believes as well? By all means, join me in my quest to discover the answer

I have answered

[Lurker]

Which part is improbable?

If the virus just traveled and conditions were equal throughout the country, then the plateau theory makes some sense. But during that time, here are just a few variables that have changed, and how I would have expected them to impact the number of new cases:

Increased testing - huge increase of new cases
Social distancing measures by businesses - decrease of new cases, with an increasingly greater impact throughout the 32 days
Availability of PPE - decrease of new cases
Stay-at-home regs - unknown, different states rolled out and rolled back regs a different times, definitely wouldn't expect it to average out perfectly
Moving hotspots - unknown, but given differentials in climates, demographics, population density, local regs, and mass transit usage, again definitely wouldn't expect it to average out perfectly

The range is within 5k, every day, for over a month. That stands out to me.

[Lurker]

Anything else just delays the inevitable

What's the inevitable?

[S209]

If we would have closed the borders in early February and had a tough contact tracing system we could have stopped the virus. At this point the virus is everywhere and tracing is impossible unless no one in this country leaves the house for three weeks and we reset. We have basically completely lost the fight and there is no way we will take the drastic steps at this point to try and reverse the tide. We are in for a long slow burn which will last for an extended period of time.

I personally am a skeptic on social distancing as some sort of long term cure for the virus nor do i think it helps that much. The only way to combat this is a full lockdown with closed borders. Anything else just delays the inevitable

You said that you believe “at this point“ there’s nothing we can do anymore, indicating that you have changed your mind from a previous point in time. I suspect that you always believed we shouldn’t be social distancing, and now you realize that of course it was the right move in retrospect, but are shifting the goalposts to it being the wrong move now. You sort of lose your credibility by constantly sticking with the same agenda, just for different reasons. You need to have some sort of period where you concede or conceded your point was wrong before switching back if you’d like others to believe you came to your conclusion AFTER analyzing the evidence.

Please correct me if I’m wrong, and there was actually a point in time when you believed we should be enacting strict social distancing. I asked if that was the case.

I happen to be of the opinion that we can relax some of the restrictions, and with more data and the longer this lasts the CBA is rapidly moving towards the cost of the economy outweighing the toll of lives, but that’s not true everywhere and does not mean we should not still be strongly enforcing many measures.

I’m not an expert, but I should get some credibility because I at first was skeptical and denied the necessity of lockdown, then became a strong believer in lockdown, and now am a believer in partial easing of lockdown. I have not stuck with one agenda throughout, I have changed my opinion. I also suspect I’m not alone in my opinion, though everyone has a different idea of which measures are appropriate.

[Afrages6]

What's the inevitable?

The virus burning through this country until we have some sort of immunity or therapeutic treatment.

[S209]

The virus burning through this country until we have some sort of immunity or therapeutic treatment.

Death is always inevitable, shouldn’t we be delaying it as long as we can?
Also, doesn’t more time give us more vaccine and therapeutic options?

[Euclid]

If the virus just traveled and conditions were equal throughout the country, then the plateau theory makes some sense. But during that time, here are just a few variables that have changed, and how I would have expected them to impact the number of new cases:

Increased testing - huge increase of new cases
Social distancing measures by businesses - decrease of new cases, with an increasingly greater impact throughout the 32 days
Availability of PPE - decrease of new cases
Stay-at-home regs - unknown, different states rolled out and rolled back regs a different times, definitely wouldn't expect it to average out perfectly
Moving hotspots - unknown, but given differentials in climates, demographics, population density, local regs, and mass transit usage, again definitely wouldn't expect it to average out perfectly

The range is within 5k, every day, for over a month. That stands out to me.

A 16%-20% differential doesn't seem to be a "perfect" average to me.

[Lurker]

The virus burning through this country until we have some sort of immunity or therapeutic treatment.

Definition of inevitable
: incapable of being avoided or evaded

Therapeutic treatment makes death avoidable, and social distancing buys time to find treatments. I'm not understanding your take...

[Afrages6]

You said that you believe “at this point“ there’s nothing we can do anymore, indicating that you have changed your mind from a previous point in time. I suspect that you always believed we shouldn’t be social distancing, and now you realize that of course it was the right move in retrospect, but are shifting the goalposts to it being the wrong move now. You sort of lose your credibility by constantly sticking with the same agenda, just for different reasons. You need to have some sort of period where you concede or conceded your point was wrong before switching back if you’d like others to believe you came to your conclusion AFTER analyzing the evidence.

Please correct me if I’m wrong, and there was actually a point in time when you believed we should be enacting strict social distancing. I asked if that was the case.

I happen to be of the opinion that we can relax some of the restrictions, and with more data and the longer this lasts the CBA is rapidly moving towards the cost of the economy outweighing the toll of lives, but that’s not true everywhere and does not mean we should not still be strongly enforcing many measures.

I’m not an expert, but I should get some credibility because I at first was skeptical and denied the necessity of lockdown, then became a strong believer in lockdown, and now am a believer in partial easing of lockdown. I have not stuck with one agenda throughout, I have changed my opinion. I also suspect I’m not alone in my opinion, though everyone has a different idea of which measures are appropriate.

I always believed that social distancing wasn’t a cure and didn’t provide any real benefit. This was my point the whole time. “Lockdown” measure were too late and not really effective.

No country that has moved on from the virus has done it from simply social distancing. I have and will stand by that. If strict social distancing means a complete lockdown then I was in favor. But if it means go to grocery stores and for walks and stay six feet apart that doesn’t help anything.

[S209]

I always believed that social distancing wasn’t a cure and didn’t provide any real benefit. This was my point the whole time. “Lockdown” measure were too late and not really effective.

No country that has moved on from the virus has done it from simply social distancing. I have and will stand by that. If strict social distancing means a complete lockdown then I was in favor. But if it means go to grocery stores and for walks and stay six feet apart that doesn’t help anything.

Umm.. source? I can use Denmark, Finland, Norway, and South Korea as proof that social distancing measures were and are effective. Your proof that no country has done it from social distancing?

[S209]

I always believed that social distancing wasn’t a cure and didn’t provide any real benefit. This was my point the whole time. “Lockdown” measure were too late and not really effective.

No country that has moved on from the virus has done it from simply social distancing. I have and will stand by that. If strict social distancing means a complete lockdown then I was in favor. But if it means go to grocery stores and for walks and stay six feet apart that doesn’t help anything.

So basically, when you said “at this point”, what you really meant was all along except before you could have had an opinion (February). Unless you advocated for a lockdown in February?

[Afrages6]

So basically, when you said “at this point”, what you really meant was all along except before you could have had an opinion (February). Unless you advocated for a lockdown in February?

By the time it became a part of our lives we were already at this point.

[Afrages6]

Umm.. source? I can use Denmark, Finland, Norway, and South Korea as proof that social distancing measures were and are effective. Your proof that no country has done it from social distancing?

They didn't do it from social distancing! They did it by limiting the initial spread through testing the positives and isolating them and their contacts.

[Lurker]

A 16%-20% differential doesn't seem to be a "perfect" average to me.

Absolutely, but it does seem to be some sort of plateau. IINM, those generally occur when conditions become stable, which doesn't jibe with what we know of the conditions and variables during that time frame.

[Euclid]

Absolutely, but it does seem to be some sort of plateau. IINM, those generally occur when conditions become stable, which doesn't jibe with what we know of the conditions and variables during that time frame.

Why not? A ~20% daily swing could be consistent with moving hotspots...