COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread

[yuneeq]

A tale of 2 Americas.

North East/Midwest states vs South/West

[Mikes@Micro]

A tale of 2 Americas.

North East/Midwest states vs South/West

So this tells you that NY is better bc  a lot of people died but now we have minimal cases or everyone sucks bc everyone has high numbers at some point?

[yuneeq]

So this tells you that NY is better bc  a lot of people died but now we have minimal cases or everyone sucks bc everyone has high numbers at some point?

NY is absolutely better right now, and everyone sucks
I think the other states are worse than NY given what they saw that happened in NY.

[how]

A tale of 2 Americas.

North East/Midwest states vs South/West

This is great. Did you find any good trackers for Hospitalization rates?

[Mikes@Micro]

NY is absolutely better right now, and everyone sucks

So all the heartache with lockdowns was for naught?
Is it even govt responsibility to make a lockdown?
Shouldnt they inform you of the risks and then let you choose? Like mayor Bloombergs ban on large unhealthy sodas was overturned bc that's not the govts job

[S209]

So all the heartache with lockdowns was for naught?
Is it even govt responsibility to make a lockdown?
Shouldnt they inform you of the risks and then let you choose? Like mayor Bloombergs ban on large unhealthy sodas was overturned bc that's not the govts job

Not if your decisions affect other people. Large unhealthy sodas only affect the person making the decision, much like seatbelts and smoking.

[yuneeq]

So all the heartache with lockdowns was for naught?

Not sure how you see that in my response. The lockdown bought time to better understand the virus, find better treatments (dexamethasone), and flatten the curve. NY locked down too little, too late. Other states reopened too much too fast. And in what feels like the millionth time this obvious statement has been stated: Opening up with restrictions to wear a mask ≠ lockdown.

Is it even govt responsibility to make a lockdown?
Shouldnt they inform you of the risks and then let you choose? Like mayor Bloombergs ban on large unhealthy sodas was overturned bc that's not the govts job

Are you really trying to prove your point by comparing the risk of selling large sodas to COVID restrictions? Selling large sodas killed no one, while not wearing masks killed at least 31k NYers more than usual in the last few months. When it’s literally the leading cause of death, does that not warrant a government response? Do you believe the government should allow drunk driving? Drunk driving kills less than COVID.

[Ergel]

Not sure how you see that in my response. The lockdown bought time to better understand the virus, find better treatments (dexamethasone), and flatten the curve. NY locked down too little, too late. Other states reopened too much too fast.

Are there any states that are in good shape (meaning, have not had a major outbreak and are not on their way to one)?

[CountValentine]

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

Nice site. A lot of it makes sense. An outliner seems to be CA. Have they opened up to quickly or just never had the proper restrictions in the first place?

[Lurker]

Nice site. A lot of it makes sense. An outliner seems to be CA. Have they opened up to quickly or just never had the proper restrictions in the first place?

Based on media reports and anecdotal posts here from CA residents, it doesn't seem like the people in LA County took this seriously at all, despite any government restrictions.

[PlatinumGuy]

Based on media reports and anecdotal posts here from CA residents, it doesn't seem like the people in LA County took this seriously at all, despite any government restrictions.

The people on these forums and likely also the people in those pics are the same people that weren't careful from day 1 and likely already got it or aren't vulnerable.

[Jellybelly]

The people on these forums and likely also the people in those pics are the same people that weren't careful from day 1 and likely already got it or aren't vulnerable.

Not sure why your lumping this whole forum with people that weren’t careful from day 1. That’s not the picture I got from following the forums the last few months

[PlatinumGuy]

Not sure why your lumping this whole forum with people that weren’t careful from day 1. That’s not the picture I got from following the forums the last few months

I meant the posters he referenced as not being careful in California.

[Lurker]

The people on these forums and likely also the people in those pics are the same people that weren't careful from day 1 and likely already got it or aren't vulnerable.

Wouldn't be too sure about that. The beaches and parks were packed. LA County has had under 80k confirmed cases so far, so a small fraction of the population (under 1%). They're just getting started.

[PlatinumGuy]

Wouldn't be too sure about that. The beaches and parks were packed. LA County has had under 80k confirmed cases so far, so a small fraction of the population (under 1%). They're just getting started.

Interesting. It seems seroprevalence surveys show around 5% infected, so still a long way to go before reaching EU/NY numbers.

[yuneeq]

Nice site. A lot of it makes sense. An outliner seems to be CA. Have they opened up to quickly or just never had the proper restrictions in the first place?

My understanding of CA (which I haven’t looked into extensively):

CA locked down very quickly and effectively, especially compared to NY, and basically avoided a huge first wave because of it. However the lockdown was too stringent for too long, and people started going back to regular life. On top of that, the state opened up too many things, and the increase in testing is also playing a role.

[Lurker]

Interesting. It seems seroprevalence surveys show around 5% infected, so still a long way to go before reaching EU/NY numbers.

People forget that the reason outbreaks in FL, TX, AZ, and CA are important is not just because of politics or containment strategy, but because they all contain huge population centers. Those 4 states have 5 of the top 10 populated metro areas in the country. These rising cases can be arguably be more devastating than the NY/NJ/CT spike.

[PlatinumGuy]

People forget that the reason outbreaks in FL, TX, AZ, and CA are important is not just because of politics or containment strategy, but because they all contain huge population centers. Those 4 states have 5 of the top 10 populated metro areas in the country. These rising cases can be arguably be more devastating than the NY/NJ/CT spike.

I don't think we will see another NY scale rapid devastation since knowledge & PPE supply chain caught up. Inevitably when a lot of people die  more people (especially nursing homes) will take protective measures.

A large portion of NY deaths could've been avoided by merely testing & isolating NY nursing home residents, which wasn't feasible at the time, but will happen now

[Lurker]

I don't think we will see another NY scale rapid devastation since knowledge & PPE supply chain caught up. Inevitably when a lot of people die  more people (especially nursing homes) will take protective measures.

A large portion of NY deaths could've been avoided by merely testing & isolating NY nursing home residents, which wasn't feasible at the time, but will happen now

I don't measure devastation only in deaths, but I think people will be surprised by the death toll. We've definitely gotten better, but half of FL's deaths are still coming from old age homes. AZ also has a ton of retirees. The death toll probably won't be as bad as NY, I'll give you that. But the strain on the infrastructure and economies, both local and national, will be very big if these numbers start to double.

[PlatinumGuy]

I don't measure devastation only in deaths, but I think people will be surprised by the death toll. We've definitely gotten better, but half of FL's deaths are still coming from old age homes. AZ also has a ton of retirees. The death toll probably won't be as bad as NY, I'll give you that. But the strain on the infrastructure and economies, both local and national, will be very big if these numbers start to double.

I agree we are still at the early stages of the pandemic and I think most of the winter will be spent in and out of lockdown. CMIIW FL nursing homes deaths aren't local mass spread events, so won't reach NY scale. Since primarily old people die they are bound to be nursing home residents.