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« Last edited by Joel on July 19, 2021, 01:49:19 AM »

Author Topic: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread  (Read 580731 times)

Offline yuneeq

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3900 on: January 17, 2021, 10:56:54 PM »
You just proved my point. If they hadn't used the most ridiculous predictions the first time around, maybe more people would take their predictions seriously.

Models aren't meant to predict the future. Models are meant to predict what will happen if things follow along in a certain path. There are models for many different potential paths. If a path changes, the model would not predict the same results, eg. if a cure was found a week after the model predicted 400k deaths, the model would be outdated pretty quickly. When the model predicted 400k deaths, it was assuming that policy and culture will pretty much continue on the same course, and unfortunately our actions as nation helped make that a reality.

While the epidemiologists can show models that predict 0 deaths and not scare anyone, we should want the models that show what happens when nothing changes. Your criticism of the models has been debunked over and over, this time very much so.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2021, 11:01:22 PM by yuneeq »
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Offline Ergel

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3901 on: January 18, 2021, 08:14:15 AM »
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/04/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html
We should force the people who produce, and those who publish, such outlandish predictions to take bets on their numbers. If I offered the author of the article 100K bet on the number (224K additional deaths by Jan 1) - at 2 to 1 odds - is there a chance in the world he takes the bet?
Oy, eating some serious crow on this one :(
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3902 on: January 18, 2021, 12:56:00 PM »
Oy, eating some serious crow on this one :(
I guess we should be forcing those criticizing the models to take bets on their positions
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline neveryou

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Offline skyguy918

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3904 on: January 22, 2021, 09:55:03 AM »

I presume that the point of this tweet is to highlight the timing, but as mentioned in some of the replies, it's essentially a press release reminding their audience of a policy change made in September (when the policy doc linked was released). Also, it doesn't say 1st PCR+<>COVID. It says weak positives should be considered for a second test based on clinical presentation (asymptomatic) and/or history (no contact with infected).

Offline PlatinumGuy

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״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline AsherO

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3906 on: January 25, 2021, 08:41:39 PM »
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1353864909772251138

Interesting article about the data-driven science used to locate this drug. If it’s derived from a rare sea creature, can it be produced in a large scale (or perhaps synthesized)?
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Offline jack

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3907 on: January 25, 2021, 09:00:36 PM »
https://mobile.twitter.com/DamoPelham3/status/1353608614905344000

Anyone familiar with any of this - true or false? Or part of each?

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3908 on: January 25, 2021, 10:00:04 PM »
https://mobile.twitter.com/DamoPelham3/status/1353608614905344000

Anyone familiar with any of this - true or false? Or part of each?
The Wuhan lab is owned by the Chinese government. There is zero connection to GSK or Pfizer.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline skyguy918

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3909 on: January 25, 2021, 10:37:33 PM »
https://mobile.twitter.com/DamoPelham3/status/1353608614905344000

Anyone familiar with any of this - true or false? Or part of each?
I found a live look at that tweeter mapping it all out:


Offline PlatinumGuy

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״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline AsherO

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3911 on: January 28, 2021, 03:44:15 PM »
At least people will stop complaining about brain matter swabs...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/01/27/china-deploys-anal-swab-tests-to-detect-high-risk-covid-19-cases/?sh=508a2d7d6e81

somewhat reminiscent of story about flight attendants wearing diapers, would only fly in China...
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Offline S209

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« Last Edit: January 28, 2021, 09:44:51 PM by S209 »
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3913 on: January 28, 2021, 08:58:12 PM »
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline justaregularguy

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3914 on: January 28, 2021, 11:11:49 PM »
After Biden’s executive order , you can’t call the virus ‘China virus’ or ‘wuhan virus’
So we have to edit the thread title please.
nothings impossible- the word itself says Im possible

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3915 on: January 29, 2021, 12:48:45 PM »
https://twitter.com/arielkarlinsky/status/1355160130086727683

Great visualization of global excess mortality for 2020.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline AsherO

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3916 on: January 29, 2021, 01:23:42 PM »
https://twitter.com/arielkarlinsky/status/1355160130086727683

Great visualization of global excess mortality for 2020.

Thanks! Very comprehensive dataset (for the countries for which they got data).
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״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Ergel

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Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline AsherO

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