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« Last edited by Joel on July 19, 2021, 01:49:19 AM »

Author Topic: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread  (Read 596815 times)

Offline ckmk47

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3960 on: February 05, 2021, 12:27:12 AM »
None of the vaccines have shown any positive impact on those who've previously had covid.
So anyone who already had it may not benefit from a vaccine. 
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3961 on: February 05, 2021, 12:28:22 AM »
None of the vaccines have shown any positive impact on those who've previously had covid.
So anyone who already had it may not benefit from a vaccine.
Source?

Offline yuneeq

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3962 on: February 05, 2021, 12:32:12 AM »
First of all, though it's not nearly as compelling when looking at cumulative since the beginning, the trend is definitely still there. And obviously there's cherry picking going on here, but the reason not to start from the beginning is not completely without merit. The states that were hit hardest early on had the least opportunity to do anything about it, while the states that were okay in the beginning and hard hit later in the year had much more to go off of in combatting the virus. I think the red/blue angle is still pretty silly and not as supported by the data as they're making it out to be, but it seems likely that a closer analysis of different responses in different states will in fact show what worked well and what didn't.Florida is actually smack in the middle for deaths per capita going back to the beginning of the pandemic, so in fact the cherry picking you're referring to has the opposite effect that you're accusing them of.

The idea of the chart is to assume that redness of a state is a proxy for bad COVID policies which is a proxy for high infection rates. That premise is obviously false, as seen in Florida which has no restrictions and is near the top of the chart. Even off the chart, is average at worst. What we learn from this is that each state has its own reasons why it produced its results since June, and that an oversimplified chart doesn’t even say a tenth of the true story, it’s just political propaganda to think otherwise. This doesn’t mean that political leanings didn’t play a part, rather we need more data and nuance to prove that effect.
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Offline skyguy918

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3963 on: February 05, 2021, 12:45:40 AM »


The idea of the chart is to assume that redness of a state is a proxy for bad COVID policies which is a proxy for high infection rates. That premise is obviously false, as seen in Florida which has no restrictions and is near the top of the chart. Even off the chart, is average at worst. What we learn from this is that each state has its own reasons why it produced its results since June, and that an oversimplified chart doesn’t even say a tenth of the true story, it’s just political propaganda to think otherwise. This doesn’t mean that political leanings didn’t play a part, rather we need more data and nuance to prove that effect.

I don't disagree with the overall thrust of your argument ("each state has its own reasons why it produced its results since June"), but one outlier does not disprove a trend. There can be (not at all saying it was remotely proven here) a statistical correlation between red state/bad policy and bad covid outcomes and also have a state be an outlier to that correlation, either because of better policy or many by other factors.

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״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline biobook

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3965 on: February 05, 2021, 01:37:30 AM »
The fact that NY is near the top of fewest deaths shows that a lot more context is needed and cherry picked data doesn’t give you the whole picture.
The data is deaths/million, and the population of NY is higher than most other states.

+ a million. Why not do total cases since the beginning of the pandemic (hint, it won't give him the data he is looking for)
He did that, in another chart.
https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/state-by-state-total-cases-by-date

The idea of the chart is to assume that redness of a state is a proxy for bad COVID policies which is a proxy for high infection rates.
The red/blue color is based on how the state voted in the previous presidential elections, so it's more of a proxy for individual behavior.  To be a proxy for covid policy, he should have based the color on the party of the governor instead.
 
But I wouldn't try to read too much into the chart.  It's created by a web developer who was playing around with the data, and noticed something... Not exactly a scholarly piece of research.  Just food for thought. The Monmouth survey posted above found that Republicans are much less concerned that covid could seriously harm them, and less likely to get vaccinated, and with that attitude, it shouldn't be surprising if they actually did get infected at a higher rate.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3966 on: February 05, 2021, 01:38:20 AM »
I'm not sure what part you disagree with.
Genetics for sure play a (the?) major role in much of our medical life. However, severity of disease impact isn’t necessarily linked to susceptibility to infection. Just because one factor was influenced by genetics doesn’t mean another factor is as well. Of course it’s possible, but I haven’t seen a case made, statistically or anecdotally.

Have there been any studies that showed that “x” demographic are less likely to contract COVID than “y” demographic in the same environment? All I’ve seen are that people contract the virus at very different levels in different *environments*- indicating that the major differentiating factor in some people catching the virus and not others is their behavior and likelihood of exposure to an infected patient.

I have yet to see anything that indicates that certain *people* are less likely to contract COVID. If you’ve seen something, please do point to it.

I’m up to my ears in stories of people who consistently claimed they “don’t get sick” and “their spouse already had it so how could they catch it now” only to subsequently catch it.
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Offline biobook

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3967 on: February 05, 2021, 02:34:12 AM »
Genetics for sure play a (the?) major role in much of our medical life. However, severity of disease impact isn’t necessarily linked to susceptibility to infection. Just because one factor was influenced by genetics doesn’t mean another factor is as well.
Maybe we're using the term "genetics" slightly differently.  What I mean is that our genes determine how our body works, and slight variations in those genes lead to slight variations in how our body functions.  Those variations may be meaningless for most of our lives, but in certain circumstances they may affect the severity of disease or susceptibility to infection.  In this sense, EVERYTHING in our body is influenced by genetics.  (I'm not suggesting that there's a link between the genes that affect severity and those that affect susceptibility.)
Quote
Have there been any studies that showed that “x” demographic are less likely to contract COVID than “y” demographic in the same environment? All I’ve seen are that people contract the virus at very different levels in different *environments*- indicating that the major differentiating factor in some people catching the virus and not others is their behavior and likelihood of exposure to an infected patient.

I have yet to see anything that indicates that certain *people* are less likely to contract COVID. If you’ve seen something, please do point to it.
You seem to be using "genetics" to refer to "demographic" or "certain people", which is not what I was referring to.  I'm thinking more at the molecular level.  For example, nasal mucus has a pH of 5-8.  Perhaps in some people, a gene that's involved in controlling that pH keeps it closer to the lower number, that is, more acidic, and therefore the mucus is more likely to destroy the virus before it causes infection.  And they wouldn't necessarily be immune to Covid, it might just take a larger dose of the virus to get them sick. These people wouldn't look different from others.  The only demographic they could be said to belong to is "low pH mucus group", aka Sour Snots. 

A combination of genetic differences, environment, behavior contribute to differences in how quickly people got infected, and I would agree with you that genetic differences are the minor component.
Quote
I’m up to my ears in stories of people who consistently claimed they “don’t get sick” and “their spouse already had it so how could they catch it now” only to subsequently catch it.
This is a totally different issue.  I was thinking theoretically, is it possible that we will one day find some gene variant that underlies why some people were less likely to get covid, and I think the answer is yes. 

But you're talking now about real life.  No, I definitely don't think that someone who happens to have not caught covid yet is in some way genetically immune!  No.  Not at all.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3968 on: February 05, 2021, 02:39:49 AM »
How can I argue with a post like that? It’s a pleasure to debate you :)
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Offline ckmk47

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3969 on: February 05, 2021, 03:21:06 AM »
None of the vaccines have shown any positive impact on those who've previously had covid.
So anyone who already had it may not benefit from a vaccine. 
Source?
I'm actually quoting an informed doctor that I know.
But if you look at the data in the vaccine studies, only people who had not previously had covid were included.


The vaccine mimics having covid in the body, causing it to develop antibodies.  Why would having actually had covid do any less?
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Offline Euclid

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3970 on: February 05, 2021, 08:12:01 AM »
I'm actually quoting an informed doctor that I know.
But if you look at the data in the vaccine studies, only people who had not previously had covid were included.


The vaccine mimics having covid in the body, causing it to develop antibodies.  Why would having actually had covid do any less?
If the natural occurring antibodies are waning, for one scenario.

Offline AsherO

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3971 on: February 05, 2021, 08:17:17 AM »
I'm actually quoting an informed doctor that I know.
But if you look at the data in the vaccine studies, only people who had not previously had covid were included.

Not true, there were studies that included seropositive patients and even studies that evaluated giving recovered COVID patients 1 dose of a 2-dose vaccine regiment. @PlatinumGuy is well versed and can likely link you to the specifics (sorry PG...).
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3972 on: February 05, 2021, 08:44:20 AM »

I don't disagree with the overall thrust of your argument ("each state has its own reasons why it produced its results since June"), but one outlier does not disprove a trend. There can be (not at all saying it was remotely proven here) a statistical correlation between red state/bad policy and bad covid outcomes and also have a state be an outlier to that correlation, either because of better policy or many by other factors.

I don’t disagree with this, and correct Florida is not proof that bad policy doesn’t increase COVID. Just think the obvious differences between states need to be factored in before making conclusions - weather, demographics, density, test rate, etc. I think we’re basically on the same page.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2021, 08:51:49 AM by yuneeq »
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Offline etech0

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3973 on: February 05, 2021, 09:39:07 AM »
If the natural occurring antibodies are waning, for one scenario.
Will vaccine induced antibodies also wane?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3974 on: February 05, 2021, 09:40:52 AM »
Will vaccine induced antibodies also wane?
We'll find out! Don't think it's known yet.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3975 on: February 05, 2021, 10:41:46 AM »
The vaccine mimics having covid in the body, causing it to develop antibodies.  Why would having actually had covid do any less?
My antibody levels nearly a year after infection are high, antibody levels in people with 2 vaccines are even higher.

Have mine waned? Or is the vaccine giving more? Does it make a difference? Hopefully it will be studied.
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״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3977 on: February 07, 2021, 12:10:14 PM »
https://twitter.com/tylerblack32/status/1357765466601775106
I know this has nothing to do with the conversation, but when seeing this the first thing that comes to mind is when the Nazi propaganda arm announced during the early day of the Holocaust that the suicide rate did not go up, it's just that now Jews were the ones committing suicide and not gentiles.

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« Last Edit: February 08, 2021, 12:17:52 AM by PlatinumGuy »
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.