COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread

[Lurker]

Which is?

I'm honestly not sure. Historical data of some kind, although I don't know how they factor in the people with antibodies from previous infections.

[S209]

I'm honestly not sure. Historical data of some kind, although I don't know how they factor in the people with antibodies from previous infections.

It says on the bottom it’s based on rates of hospitalization from COVID-NET as of May 22.

[Lurker]

It says on the bottom it’s based on rates of hospitalization from COVID-NET as of May 22.

Yes, but hospitalization rate is contingent on knowing the number of infections. How are they calculating how many infections there would have been to come up with how many hospitalizations were avoided?

[Shmobaum]

Now they’re peddling the idea that mixing up the Pfizer and Astra shots is the way to go.
The whole vaccine situation is as confusing as COVID itself.

[Lurker]

Now they’re peddling the idea that mixing up the Pfizer and Astra shots is the way to go.
The whole vaccine situation is as confusing as COVID itself.

Speedballs are awesome.

[Euclid]

Now they’re peddling the idea that mixing up the Pfizer and Astra shots is the way to go.
The whole vaccine situation is as confusing as COVID itself.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57636356

[moko]

It says on the bottom it’s based on rates of hospitalization from COVID-NET as of May 22.

basically they're comparing definitive data against speculative extrapolation

[S209]

Yes, but hospitalization rate is contingent on knowing the number of infections. How are they calculating how many infections there would have been to come up with how many hospitalizations were avoided?

Good question. Actual infections in the population reduced by 95%?

[Lurker]

Good question. Actual infections in the population reduced by 95%?

That number fluctuates constantly, based on waves/seasons. It also doesn't calculate reduced risks of infection due to prior infection.

[S209]

That number fluctuates constantly, based on waves/seasons. It also doesn't calculate reduced risks of infection due to prior infection.

Whatever unvaccinated number in the population was infected during that time x19 (obviously rolling as the vaccinated numbers increased). As far as prior infection, if the same amount of people with prior infection exist in the unvaccinated community as the vaccinated (my money is actually on more in the unvaxxed) then there’s no need to adjust the calculation.

[Iz]

Why uh oh? This is what we need in order to attempt to keep things under control. Arguably what was missing before all the other waves.

Those that understand don't need explanation. Those that need explanation won't understand.

[Lurker]

Whatever unvaccinated number in the population was infected during that time x19 (obviously rolling as the vaccinated numbers increased). As far as prior infection, if the same amount of people with prior infection exist in the unvaccinated community as the vaccinated (my money is actually on more in the unvaxxed) then there’s no need to adjust the calculation.

I think you're making a mistake. You would need to multiply the number of vaccinated people who still got Covid by 20.

[S209]

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57636356

Lead investigator Prof Matthew Snape, from the University of Oxford, said the findings did not undermine the UK policy of giving people the same jab twice:

[Iz]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/01/the-white-house-is-taking-right-approach-in-fighting-the-covid-19-delta-variant-gottlieb-says.html

[Iz]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-is-less-effective-against-delta-variant-israeli-data-show-11625572796

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/naomiohreally/status/1413859691084619778

I can’t find a chart of historic reproduction rates, but I seem to remember both UK & Israel the R skyrocketed when Delta started spreading but quickly fell back down (perhaps a result of behavior modification post outbreaks).

The Netherlands is a bit different because the introduction of Delta came at the same time as relaxation of all covid restrictions

[Ergel]

Need a hospitalization chart transposed on above data

[PlatinumGuy]

Need a hospitalization chart transposed on above data

Too early for the Netherlands. In the UK the hospitalizations lagged a lot

[AsherO]

Keep in mind the Netherlands is less vaxxed than the UK or Israel.

[Lurker]

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/covid19-data/covid19_data_latest.pdf

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2021/07/07/delta-variant-spreading-quickly-in-florida-now-dominant-coronavirus-strain-in-the-us/