COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread

[TimT]

US now averaging 100,000 cases a day.

[ckmk47]

US now averaging 100,000 cases a day.

Since most Americans over 65 are vaccinated, those 100,000 infected people should result in fewer hospitalizations than a year ago. And fewer deaths.

[S209]

Despite more than 70% of adults and 90% of those 65+ currently vaccinated in the US, more than 90% of cases and 95% of hospitalizations and deaths are occurring among the unvaccinated.  That means that 30% of the population (and 10% of those 65+) are responsible for 90% of the spread and 95% of the hospitalizations and deaths. This couldn’t be more blatant.

This is now truly a pandemic of the unvaccinated.

[yzj]

Despite more than 70% of adults and 90% of those 65+ currently vaccinated in the US, more than 90% of cases and 95% of hospitalizations and deaths are occurring among the unvaccinated.  That means that 30% of the population (and 10% of those 65+) are responsible for 90% of the spread and 95% of the hospitalizations and deaths. This couldn’t be more blatant.

This is now truly a pandemic of the unvaccinated.

How does this data square with Israel where a far larger share of the infected are fully vaccinated?

[S209]

How does this data square with Israel where a far larger share of the infected are fully vaccinated?

Some possibilities are: larger prevalence of Delta in Israel, Pfizer lower long term efficacy than Moderna, and larger percentage of vaccinated in Israel (because the larger the percentage vaccinated, the larger the percentage of hospitalized vaccinated). This information is also a week or so old so it’s possible the numbers are somewhat different now. However, I do recall seeing that the numbers initially released by Israel were mistaken.

Anybody have current Israeli numbers on hospitalized vaxxed vs. unvaxxed?

[Euclid]

Anybody have current Israeli numbers on hospitalized vaxxed vs. unvaxxed?

https://twitter.com/dvir_a/status/1424136730597281793?s=21

[Euclid]

https://twitter.com/ct_bergstrom/status/1422978581253087236

Interesting thread

[S209]

(because the larger the percentage vaccinated, the larger the percentage of hospitalized vaccinated)

This is key to understanding the metric. The smaller the share of unvaxxed/unrecovered, the smaller the share they will make up of hospitalizations. As an example, if 99%+ of a population is vaccinated, then they will probably make up ~95% of hospitalizations even if the vaccine is 95% effective (I think the math is right). So in Israel, where a tremendous (90%+) share of the 60+ population is vaccinated, a 4 to 1 ratio of hospitalizations occurring in the unvaccinated population (and that’s not even including the share of recovered) is obviously very meaningful.

[PlatinumGuy]

Another factor is a larger portion of unvaccinated in Israel have natural immunity compared to red states with 70% unvaccinated, which makes the vaccines seem less effective when compared to them.

ETA ‘שוב מצאתי’ that @Euclid alreasy posted this

[PlatinumGuy]

Judging by the UK & Israel data it seems clear the US will hit 100k cases/day soon. (Your prediction of a fourth wave will materialize just after it seemed to have been off table). I would say very likely 500 deaths/days  and possibly 1000-1500, the main variable is how the new wave will influence vaccination hesitancy.

Israel is doubling every 2-4 days. UK is at 150 cases per million today while the US is at 35. The US has better vaccines but less quarantine adherence and etc

Interestingly, the UK still has less new hospitalizations, likely because the US has larger pockets of unvaccinated people whom are hit harder than the UKs Delta variant hits vaccinated people.

It's easy to blame the politicians, but the real problem is they aren't responding fast enough.

US now averaging 100,000 cases a day.

Looks like US will hit ~2000/deaths day in less than a month 

[yzj]

https://twitter.com/ct_bergstrom/status/1422978581253087236

Interesting thread

So if the preliminary stats showing that natural immunity is several times more effective against Delta than the vaccine hold, at some point Delta might very well become a pandemic of the (merely) vaccinated.

[Ergel]

So if the preliminary stats showing that natural immunity is several times more effective against Delta than the vaccine hold, at some point Delta might very well become a pandemic of the (merely) vaccinated.

And if the vaccine is 90% effective against serious illness, than this basically is as dangerous as the flu

[YitzyS]

Despite more than 70% of adults and 90% of those 65+ currently vaccinated in the US, more than 90% of cases and 95% of hospitalizations and deaths are occurring among the unvaccinated.  That means that 30% of the population (and 10% of those 65+) are responsible for 90% of the spread and 95% of the hospitalizations and deaths. This couldn’t be more blatant.

This is now truly a pandemic of the unvaccinated.

Is there a similar study that takes into account natural antibodies for people who had Covid in the past?

[S209]

So if the preliminary stats showing that natural immunity is several times more effective against Delta than the vaccine hold, at some point Delta might very well become a pandemic of the (merely) vaccinated.

As posted upthread, those stats are no longer preliminary and were mistaken. But let’s remove the recovered from the equation as well- there are tens of millions of Americans and hundreds of thousands of Israelis who are neither vaccinated nor recovered. They are the ones who can currently consider themselves to be in a pandemic.

[S209]

Is there a similar study that takes into account natural antibodies for people who had Covid in the past?

No, likely partially because it’s much harder to track, but at this point one would assume natural infection to be similar to vaccination as far as these numbers are concerned.

[YitzyS]

No, likely partially because it’s much harder to track, but at this point one would assume natural infection to be similar to vaccination as far as these numbers are concerned.

So if I have a recent antibody test showing a high level of antibodies, I should not be hard-pressed to get the vaccine?

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/cleavon_md/status/1424033237530255362

https://twitter.com/devclifford/status/1424196768548466688

https://twitter.com/lola_chambless/status/1423748739106230277

https://twitter.com/dremilyportermd/status/1424175030758518786

https://twitter.com/davidbegnaud/status/1422369489694363649

https://twitter.com/whcos/status/1424150808933945348

‘Freedom’

[S209]

So if I have a recent antibody test showing a high level of antibodies, I should not be hard-pressed to get the vaccine?

I’m not a doctor, but I would assume it’s not a dire need, especially if you’re not high risk.

[CountValentine]

I’m not a doctor, but I would assume it’s not a dire need, especially if you’re not high risk.

Is there a downside to getting the vaccine?

[S209]

Is there a downside to getting the vaccine?

There’s a decent chance your arm will be sore for a bit and you’ll be sick for a day or so. There’s also a minuscule chance of developing something more severe (something along the lines of a .01% chance if you’re in the absolute worst demographic).