COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread

[4yourinfo]

Here is the first plausible hypothesis I saw as to why waves end (there is no kind of herd immunity anywhere).

In short, the idea is that average R is driven by a few super spreaders, say, 10%. However, as the wave progresses, the growth of regular cases outpaces the super spreaders, diluting them from 10% to 5%, which in turn reduces the entire R below 1.

It is possible Delta is more concentrated in fewer superspreaders, hence waves peak earlier.

One explanation why there are more superspreaders in the beginning is because it starts by people who have many contacts and go out a lot, who constitute a large portion of the total cases, but eventually it hits people who are staying at home, lowering the average rate of contacts and transmission.

@biobook would love your opinion if I understood these threads correctly.

https://twitter.com/whiterabbitwb/status/1425670091941634051

What does that have to do with what he wrote?

Is that the only explanation why it's peaking early?

[yitzgar]

Is that the only explanation why it's peaking early?

If it peaked because of herd immunity, there wouldn't be recurring waves

[4yourinfo]

If it peaked because of herd immunity, there wouldn't be recurring waves

Waning Antibodies and vaccines not as effective against delta? After reading the post again we may be in agreement there are less superspreaders out there as many of them possibly have some level of immunity.

[PlatinumGuy]

Here is the first plausible hypothesis I saw as to why waves end (there is no kind of herd immunity anywhere).

In short, the idea is that average R is driven by a few super spreaders, say, 10%. However, as the wave progresses, the growth of regular cases outpaces the super spreaders, diluting them from 10% to 5%, which in turn reduces the entire R below 1.

It is possible Delta is more concentrated in fewer superspreaders, hence waves peak earlier.

One explanation why there are more superspreaders in the beginning is because it starts by people who have many contacts and go out a lot, who constitute a large portion of the total cases, but eventually it hits people who are staying at home, lowering the average rate of contacts and transmission.

@biobook would love your opinion if I understood these threads correctly.

https://twitter.com/whiterabbitwb/status/1425670091941634051

In short, waves end because the supply of superspreaders is exhausted. It would seem they begin again when there are more.

Either some biological process we don’t understand (low level immunity from exposure that isn’t detected and wanes quickly?), or behavioral.

If it’s purely behavioral, the wave is dominated by 5-10% of cases who are superspreaders, every 1% of the population that drops caution to the wind after a few months joins the pool of potential superspreaders and translates to 10% increase in superspreaders and overall cases.

If 5% of the population switch from covid cautious to life as normal (something I essentially did), you suddenly have 50% increase, and if 10% become less cautious, you have 100% more superspreaders and a new wave… so it would actually be true to say vaccines caused the wave (by generating excessive confidence and creating many more superspreaders).

I’m too tired to write it up clearly but I think this makes sense.

[TimT]

https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-business-health-travel-caribbean-4dd34f14b6a6365f48b3375c57ba4fb4

[CountValentine]

https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-business-health-travel-caribbean-4dd34f14b6a6365f48b3375c57ba4fb4

Wouldn't this show vaccines do work?

[Lurker]

Wouldn't this show vaccines do work?

That depends on what you're expecting them to do.

[CountValentine]

That depends on what you're expecting them to do.

Help not getting the virus in the first place and if you do get it reduce the risk of hospitalization.

[aygart]

That depends on what you're expecting them to do.

Teach your body how to fight the virus? Was there anything else they were supposed to do?

[Lurker]

Was there anything else they were supposed to do?

People (and some media) seem to think it was supposed to be a magic shot that stopped people from getting Covid altogether.

[JlmBoi]

Magic shot that stopped people from getting Covid altogether

like every other vaccine we are familiar with.

[aygart]

People (and some media) seem to think it was supposed to be a magic shot that stopped people from getting Covid altogether.

Where would they have gotten that from?

[JlmBoi]

Where would they have gotten that from?

Idk, mb their experience with vaccines?

[Dan]

like every other vaccine we are familiar with.

Those work thanks to herd immunity.

[JlmBoi]

Those work thanks to herd immunity.

I doubt most people know that.

[Ergel]

Those work thanks to herd immunity.

Which works because most people who get the shot do not contract and/or transmit the virus

[Lurker]

like every other vaccine we are familiar with.

Really? Which vaccine guarantees you will not get the disease?

[avromie7]

Those work thanks to herd immunity.

At current breakthrough levels, it seems herd immunity is impossible even with 100% participation.

[Dan]

Due to variants caused by the unvaccinated.

We can make a vaccine for delta, but unless there would be herd immunity we'll wind up with another variant.

[JlmBoi]

Really? Which vaccine guarantees you will not get the disease?

Do you know anyone that got a major disease they were vaccinated againt? (MMR, Polio, Meningococcal etc)
It's about perception. Most people don't know how these things work.