COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread

[Ergel]

Due to variants caused by the unvaccinated.

We can make a vaccine for delta, but unless there would be herd immunity we'll wind up with another variant.

Do we know this is true - the MSM keeps pushing this, but are their facts backing this up?

[CountValentine]

At current breakthrough levels, it seems herd immunity is impossible even with 100% participation.

What breakthrough levels you talking about?

[aygart]

Do we know this is true - the MSM keeps pushing this, but are their facts backing this up?

This is the way viruses generally work even with no data specific  to covid

[avromie7]

What breakthrough levels you talking about?

IIRC Pfizer is down to something like 50% efficacy.

[CountValentine]

IIRC Pfizer is down to something like 50% efficacy.

You have a link? Have not seen the numbers that low.

[avromie7]

You have a link? Have not seen the numbers that low.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/moderna-may-be-superior-pfizer-against-delta-breakthrough-odds-rise-with-time-2021-08-09/

"In a study of more than 50,000 patients in the Mayo Clinic Health System, researchers found the effectiveness of Moderna's vaccine against infection had dropped to 76% in July - when the Delta variant was predominant - from 86% in early 2021.
Over the same period, the effectiveness of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine had fallen to 42% from 76%, researchers said."

[avromie7]

Here's some more.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1425589829069271041?s=19

Wow. Confirms the Mayo Clinic study

[AsherO]

IIRC Pfizer is down to something like 50% efficacy.

For asymptomatic disease, the numbers down the road are much less definitive.

[avromie7]

For asymptomatic disease, the numbers down the road are much less definitive.

That's really important for herd immunity

[AsherO]

That's really important for herd immunity

Maybe, maybe not. The jury's still out on whether vaccinated positives are equally contagious to unvaccinated positives (whether reinfections or first-time), viral loads do seem to be equal, but that isn't conclusive. It isn't clear if higher spread in vaccinated states is just less people not getting infected in states with higher vaccination, or also less spread from vaccinated people who are unknowingly infected with asymptomatic COVID.

[ExGingi]

For anyone still keeping track of all the variants; Gamma is sweeping Illinois while Lambda has made its way into Texas.

Any updates on Lambda?

I see more and more headlines about it being resistant to the vaccine.

@biobook

[biobook]

Any updates on Lambda?

I see more and more headlines about it being resistant to the vaccine.

@biobook

I saw something in the last couple days saying it looks like lambda is fizzling out because it can't compete against delta.  Can't remember where I saw it, but I mostly read stuff written by scientists, doctors, and science journalists.  If I come across it again, I'll let you know.

[Euclid]

I mostly read stuff written by scientists, doctors, and science journalists.

Wow high praise for DDF

[biobook]

Here it is.  How do I post a tweet?

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1426672618388611075?s=20

[aygart]

I saw something in the last couple days saying it looks like lambda is fizzling out because it can't compete against delta.  Can't remember where I saw it, but I mostly read stuff written by scientists, doctors, and science journalists.  If I come across it again, I'll let you know.

How are they competing?

[PlatinumGuy]

How are they competing?

When you get one you're generally immune from the other and Delta is much more contagious so you're much more likely to catch Delta first.

It's the same mechanism that allowed Beta to replace Alpha, and Delta to replace Beta.

[aygart]

When you get one you're generally immune from the other and Delta is much more contagious so you're much more likely to catch Delta first.

It's the same mechanism that allowed Beta to replace Alpha, and Delta to replace Beta.

This would mean cross immunity between the two variants and not the vaccine. Another indicator of natural immunity working better for the variants.

[biobook]

How are they competing?

I'm not sure but I think it means that delta spreads more efficiently, so delta infects many of the vulnerable in the vicinity.   When a lambda tries to infect someone, there's a high probability that delta has been there already and left that person with some immunity, so lambda has more trouble finding a victim to keep its chain going, and dies out.

ETA: I think I'm saying the same thing as PG.  Not sure what you mean re:natural immunity.

[aygart]

I'm not sure but I think it means that delta spreads more efficiently, so delta infects many of the vulnerable in the vicinity.   When a lambda tries to infect someone, there's a high probability that delta has been there already and left that person with some immunity, so lambda has more trouble finding a victim to keep its chain going, and dies out.

ETA: I think I'm saying the same thing as PG.  Not sure what you mean re:natural immunity.

I mean immunity from having been previously infected

[biobook]

What do  you  mean "natural immunity works better for the variants"?