COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread

[aygart]

What do  you  mean "natural immunity works better for the variants"?

It seems to be creating better protection. Of course a new variant can go the other way and the immunity can wear off so it is advisable to still get a vaccine

[PlatinumGuy]

This would mean cross immunity between the two variants and not the vaccine. Another indicator of natural immunity working better for the variants.

I don't saw how it would imply the vaccine immunity is inferior to natural infection for a variant (although there is other evidence that suggests that).

[S209]

It seems to be creating better protection. Of course a new variant can go the other way and the immunity can wear off so it is advisable to still get a vaccine

In the method of biobook: I get what you’re asking. Your question is, “Why is Delta providing sufficient immunity to eliminate Lambda while the vaccine appears to have been insufficient?”

The way strain dominance occurs is that at any given time there is a specific subset of people who are ripe for infection through a combination of lack of immunity, extended unprotected exposure to others with a high likelihood of infection at peak infectious load, weakened immune systems, etc. In that subset of the population they’re likely to contract infection, such as Lambda or Delta. Since Delta is much more contagious, the majority of them will catch Delta, and so on for future generations of contagion from them to others.

Why would that be true of a virus but not vaccination? Truthfully, if this subset of people would all also be just as likely to be recently vaccinated with good vaccines, it would have a similar effect of reducing Delta infection (and indeed the vaccines performed well enough against alpha beta and perhaps lambda versions of COVID to just about eliminate spread). However, vaccination is a brute force method of targeting everyone and hoping to include those most likely to become infected while the virus is of course much more efficient at targeting those most susceptible to infection at any given time. A more powerful strain like Delta would require a larger percentage of people to be vaccinated or infected to reach enough of those likely to contract infections as to eliminate spread.

[aygart]

In the method of biobook: I get what you’re asking. Your question is, “Why is Delta providing sufficient immunity to eliminate Lambda while the vaccine appears to have been insufficient?”

The way strain dominance occurs is that at any given time there is a specific subset of people who are ripe for infection through a combination of lack of immunity, extended unprotected exposure to others with a high likelihood of infection at peak infectious load, weakened immune systems, etc. In that subset of the population they’re likely to contract infection, such as Lambda or Delta. Since Delta is much more contagious, the majority of them will catch Delta, and so on for future generations of contagion from them to others.

Why would that be true of a virus but not vaccination? Truthfully, if this subset of people would all also be just as likely to be recently vaccinated with good vaccines, it would have a similar effect of reducing Delta infection (and indeed the vaccines performed well enough against alpha beta and perhaps lambda versions of COVID to just about eliminate spread). However, vaccination is a brute force method of targeting everyone and hoping to include those most likely to become infected while the virus is of course much more efficient at targeting those most susceptible to infection at any given time. A more powerful strain like Delta would require a larger percentage of people to be vaccinated or infected to reach enough of those likely to contract infections as to eliminate spread.

Yet this variant breaks through the vaccine but not the natural  immunity

[biobook]

Yet this variant breaks through the vaccine but not the natural  immunity

Do we have that data?

[S209]

Yet this variant breaks through the vaccine but not the natural  immunity

Do you see that clearly in the data? Remember, that initial report from Israel had the numbers mistaken.

It may very well be true, but I don’t know where you would see that here.

[aygart]

Do we have that data?

Dunno @biobook do we have data?

[aygart]

Do you see that clearly in the data? Remember, that initial report from Israel had the numbers mistaken.

It may very well be true, but I don’t know where you would see that here.

I am using a simple logic. If the lambda variant isn't helped by vaccines but delta is causing immunity to push it out then the  immunity is doing a better job

[S209]

A virus targeting people for infection would be the equivalent of spraying a vaccine at lots of people and it landing on anybody who isn’t protected from the virus at that moment. That would be way more efficient than just vaccinating everyone who agrees to be vaccinated.. the people who don’t agree are probably even more likely to be exactly those whom the virus will target.

That is some of the logic behind vaccine mandates.

[S209]

I am using a simple logic. If the lambda variant isn't helped by vaccines but delta is causing immunity to push it out then the  immunity is doing a better job

Or more likely where the Lambda version was prevalent vaccinations weren’t prevalent enough in the target population to eliminate spread, while Delta was.

Put another way, the people currently catching COVID in Texas are more likely to contract COVID than to get vaccinated.

I don’t have a difficult time believing that, do you?

A virus certainly does a better job of finding targets than a vaccination drive. The question is whether it does a better job of preventing infection in a given target.

[aygart]

Or more likely where the Lambda version was prevalent vaccinations weren’t prevalent enough in the target population to eliminate spread, while Delta was.

Put another way, the people currently catching COVID in Texas are more likely to contract COVID than to get vaccinated.

I don’t have a difficult time believing that, do you?

A virus certainly does a better job of finding targets than a vaccination drive. The question is whether it does a better job of preventing infection in a given target.

So you are saying that the premise that it gets through vaccines is mistaken?

[biobook]

Yet this variant breaks through the vaccine but not the natural  immunity

We think that the variant can infect someone whose immunity has waned, whether that immunity originated from a vaccine or from a natural infection. 

When the variant enters a community, there are a mix of people, with different vulnerability:

never infected or vaxed -highly vulnerable
infected early in 2020 - were immune, but now some becoming vulnerable again
infected by variants in summer 2021 - recent infection so probably very high immunity right now
vaccinated in Dec/Jan - were immune, but now some becoming vulnerable again
vaccinated in summer 2021 - recent, so probably sufficient immunity against variants

So it sounds confusing when you say "the variant gets through the vaccine".  I would say something like "the variant can infect a certain proportion of those people who've been vaccinated."  Is that what you were asking?

[S209]

So you are saying that the premise that it gets through vaccines is mistaken?

The premise that it gets through vaccination at a higher rate than through natural infection is not yet proven, I don’t know that it’s mistaken only that I don’t know it to be true. There are some indications that it is correct. But not from this data.

[Euclid]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/us/vaccination-booster-shots.html
U.S to advise boosters for most Americans 8 months after vaccination

[PlatinumGuy]

https://twitter.com/petemuntean/status/1428005134089469953

Vaccines requirements are getting closer

[CountValentine]

Vaccines requirements are getting closer

...and are long overdue.

[avromie7]

...and are long overdue.

Wouldn't you say it's a bit aggressive to call it long over due when they haven't even been fully authorized?

[Kobe Bryant]

...and are long overdue.

We live in a “free” country.

[CountValentine]

Wouldn't you say it's a bit aggressive to call it long over due when they haven't even been fully authorized?

Yes but circumstances warrant them.

We live in a “free” country.

"Free" comes at high price.

[avromie7]

"Free" comes at high price.

It sure does, it's a price we've been willing to pay for the last 245 years. Those who fought for our freedom would be appalled at the ease with which some are willing to give it up.