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« Last edited by Joel on July 19, 2021, 01:49:19 AM »

Author Topic: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread  (Read 265650 times)

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4780 on: September 10, 2021, 11:39:59 AM »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/09/teenage-boys-risk-vaccines-covid/amp/

“Young males are six times more likely to suffer from heart problems after being jabbed than be hospitalised from coronavirus, study finds“

For younger teenage males it ranges from 4 times more likely (periods of high hospitalization rates) to 23 times more likely (periods of low hospitalization).

Here’s the study (preprint):

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v1.full.pdf+html




This is a conditional probability being misused. Here is what they are saying:

A small subset of teenagers (only aged 12-15 and only boys, not the “young male” misquoted category) are 6 times more likely to develop a heart complication (95% of which are short lived with no lasting effects) after being vaccinated (condition) than they are to be hospitalized with COVID-19 (13% chance of medium to long range issues) in the UK in the next 120 days (condition, where prevalence is considered to be moderate) without the condition of after developing COVID.

Apples to apples would be “percent hospitalized after being vaccinated vs. percent hospitalized after developing COVID-19” which of course is imbalanced towards being hospitalized from COVID.

The information has some useful implications and should be considered but is being misquoted here and taken out of context as if vaccination is more dangerous than COVID (not true even in that narrow subset).
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4781 on: September 10, 2021, 11:47:51 AM »
This is a conditional probability being misused. Here is what they are saying:

A small subset of teenagers (only aged 12-15 and only boys, not the “young male” misquoted category) are 6 times more likely to develop a heart complication (95% of which are short lived with no lasting effects) after being vaccinated (condition) than they are to be hospitalized with COVID-19 (13% chance of medium to long range issues) in the UK in the next 120 days (condition, where prevalence is considered to be moderate) without the condition of after developing COVID.

Apples to apples would be “percent hospitalized after being vaccinated vs. percent hospitalized after developing COVID-19” which of course is imbalanced towards being hospitalized from COVID.

The information has some useful implications and should be considered but is being misquoted here and taken out of context as if vaccination is more dangerous than COVID (not true even in that narrow subset).
-1 The risk of vaccine side effects is not comparable to risks after having contracted the disease but rather to the risk of a healthy person having serious effects. In order for this person to have serious effects they must first contract it and then have serious effects from it. For the healthy person, a disease has a 10% chance of being contracted but 100% of those who contract it die that is the same as one where 100% contract it and 10% die.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4782 on: September 10, 2021, 12:40:16 PM »
I think you are misunderstanding the headline. They are comparing the risk of a healthy teenager developing complications from the vaccine versus the risk of a currently healthy teenager contracting and being hospitalized from Covid.

The first rule in medicine is do no harm. When considering administering vaccines to teenagers (or mandating them as Los Angeles has done) the relevant question is whether the risk of complications is greater in giving the vaccine or in not giving the vaccine. The study appears to show a higher risk in giving the vaccine in teenage boys across the board with the highest risk being present in the youngest age group. If this study pans out (it hasn’t even been peer reviewed yet) it would seem that giving them the vaccine is bad medicine.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4783 on: September 10, 2021, 03:21:54 PM »
-1 The risk of vaccine side effects is not comparable to risks after having contracted the disease but rather to the risk of a healthy person having serious effects. In order for this person to have serious effects they must first contract it and then have serious effects from it. For the healthy person, a disease has a 10% chance of being contracted but 100% of those who contract it die that is the same as one where 100% contract it and 10% die.
The information was used to decide policy, and for that purpose it was useful and correct to compare the chances of being hospitalized with COVID (currently only mildly prevalent) with the chances of being hospitalized after the vaccine in the next 120 days in the UK. Should the risk of contracting the virus rise, the equation would change.

What was out of context were the quotes and bolded sentences insinuating the vaccine is more dangerous than the illness in the general sense, which is nonsense.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4784 on: September 10, 2021, 03:23:48 PM »
I think you are misunderstanding the headline. They are comparing the risk of a healthy teenager 12-15 year old developing complications from the vaccine versus the risk of a currently healthy teenager 12-15 year old contracting and being hospitalized from Covid in the UK in the next 120 days based on current prevalence.

The study appears to show a higher risk in giving the vaccine in teenage boys across the board with the highest risk being present in the youngest age group. If this study pans out (it hasn’t even been peer reviewed yet) it would seem that giving 12-15 year olds the vaccine in the UK in the next 120 days is bad medicine.
FTFY
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4785 on: September 10, 2021, 04:34:26 PM »
Correct. Anyone making the case that vaccination is more risky than actually having Covid has serious reading comprehension problems to say the least.

Policy wise, the relative risk would be a moving target going forward and would vary depending on Covid hospitalization rates, frequency of booster shots, and incidence of myocarditis with those booster shots.  It does seem fairly certain that given the relative risk cited,  and assuming the study pans out, the risk reward for that age group will favor non-vaccination for well beyond the next 120 days.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2021, 04:38:12 PM by yzj »

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4786 on: September 24, 2021, 11:30:37 AM »
Someone told me that it's obviously not so clear cut since health workers aren't getting vaccinated at a higher rate than anyone else. So I checked it up- and I found that 96% of physicians have been vaccinated, with half of the remaining saying they plan on getting vaccinated soon.

That's Iceland level vaccination uptake.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4787 on: September 24, 2021, 04:51:29 PM »
Someone told me that it's obviously not so clear cut since health workers aren't getting vaccinated at a higher rate than anyone else. So I checked it up- and I found that 96% of physicians have been vaccinated, with half of the remaining saying they plan on getting vaccinated soon.

That's Iceland level vaccination uptake.
They probably mean nurses and seems like there is lower uptake there.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4788 on: September 24, 2021, 05:01:40 PM »
They probably mean nurses and seems like there is lower uptake there.
I have a very close relative who's the nursing supervisor (with ~50 years of nursing experience) of a floor in a big hospital; I would never rely on a nurse for medical advice, they're the janitors of the medical world (not really, but kinda).

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4789 on: September 24, 2021, 05:18:56 PM »
I have a very close relative who's the nursing supervisor (with ~50 years of nursing experience) of a floor in a big hospital; I would never rely on a nurse for medical advice, they're the janitors of the medical world (not really, but kinda).
In general, the pseudo-professionals in every field have a tendency towards the fringes.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4790 on: September 24, 2021, 05:48:00 PM »
I have a very close relative who's the nursing supervisor (with ~50 years of nursing experience) of a floor in a big hospital; I would never rely on a nurse for medical advice, they're the janitors of the medical world (not really, but kinda).

And the janitors are?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4791 on: September 24, 2021, 05:49:33 PM »
And the janitors are?
More likely to listen to those who know better than them
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