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« Last edited by Joel on July 19, 2021, 01:49:19 AM »

Author Topic: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread  (Read 580281 times)

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״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4921 on: March 12, 2022, 07:36:46 PM »


BS, obviously. In the real world, US excess mortality is almost 10x Canada, Sweden is 4x Denmark and Norway, & UK is 2x Germany and 1.5x France.

 
I understand the question, but this is not some junky journal or preprint. This was per reviewed by a reputable journal. I wouldn't dismiss it so quickly. Did you read the entire thing?
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4922 on: March 13, 2022, 04:00:39 AM »
I understand the question, but this is not some junky journal or preprint. This was per reviewed by a reputable journal. I wouldn't dismiss it so quickly. Did you read the entire thing?
They openly admit to using estimated fake numbers. The real numbers are readily available. Why would I bother reading it?
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4924 on: March 13, 2022, 09:56:06 AM »
They openly admit to using estimated fake numbers. The real numbers are readily available. Why would I bother reading it?
Please explain where you see this. The reason to read it would be that you may be addressing something they already addressed and you can easily be misunderstanding the entire model if you did not.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4926 on: March 13, 2022, 10:34:05 AM »
So, another Purim repeat?
How was KFWE?

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4927 on: March 13, 2022, 10:52:35 AM »
How was KFWE?
Didn't get sick BH, which was a surprise to me after I was saliva sprayed by a tipsy selfie seeker there.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4928 on: March 13, 2022, 10:59:12 AM »
Didn't get sick BH, which was a surprise to me after I was saliva sprayed by a tipsy selfie seeker there.
#newPurimCD
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4929 on: March 13, 2022, 03:29:06 PM »
Please explain where you see this. The reason to read it would be that you may be addressing something they already addressed and you can easily be misunderstanding the entire model if you did not.


https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1502351363900125188


As per the Tweet I posted, they are using wrong estimates of total deaths for countries like Germany and the UK where there are official tallies. I guess the idea is that it would be controversial to establish 'scientifically' which countries death tallies to trust, so they default to trusting none.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4930 on: March 13, 2022, 03:31:47 PM »
So, another Purim repeat?
I think our elderly are fairly well protected, but it's hard to know for sure.

I do hope after most of the West opened borders before the peak of the last wave, they won't rush to shut borders again and will continue believing the system can weather a wave without too many restrictions.

We don't know why waves cede so it isn't really possible to predict either way.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4931 on: March 13, 2022, 03:37:21 PM »
As per the Tweet I posted, they are using wrong estimates of total deaths for countries like Germany and the UK where there are official tallies. I guess the idea is that it would be controversial to establish 'scientifically' which countries death tallies to trust, so they default to trusting none.
They claim to be using actual data for that where fully available as well. Where are you seeing otherwise?
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4932 on: March 13, 2022, 03:49:39 PM »
They claim to be using actual data for that where fully available as well. Where are you seeing otherwise?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(2102796-3/fulltext

They claim US excess mortality is 179 per 100k, while Our World in Data has it at 295

Then they have Canada at 60, while OWID has them at 30.

They have UK at 126 (less than reported covid death count of 130) while OWID has it at 200

Then they have Germany at 120 while OWID has them at 100.


That's overwhelming evidence the study is useless, and I have no patience to read it further.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4933 on: March 13, 2022, 03:54:15 PM »
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(2102796-3/fulltext

They claim US excess mortality is 179 per 100k, while Our World in Data has it at 295

Then they have Canada at 60, while OWID has them at 30.

They have UK at 126 (less than reported covid death count of 130) while OWID has it at 200

Then they have Germany at 120 while OWID has them at 100.


That's overwhelming evidence the study is useless, and I have no patience to read it further.
When did our world in data become Torah misinai? Why are you choosing one over the other? How did they get to their numbers? Is their methodology peer reviewed?
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4934 on: March 14, 2022, 02:40:17 AM »
When did our world in data become Torah misinai? Why are you choosing one over the other? How did they get to their numbers? Is their methodology peer reviewed?
When OWID claims to report actual data and the lancet paper claims to report 'estimates', it's obvious which one to trust, but if you insist on excusing covid-deniers, here is more proof:

'In 2020, a total of 3,383,729 resident deaths were registered in the United States—528,891 more deaths than in 2019' (2019 was 2.8m)

528,000 excess deaths for a population of 330m is 160 per 100k

In 2021, I can only find the data until September, but that's 2.5m deaths, even more than 2020's 2.4m, despite the 2020 data including 2 months before the pandemic and the 2021 data excluding Omicron, not to mention 2022. So, you'd expect at the very least another 160k per 100k.

US annual population growth did not exceed 2%, so clearly OWID's excess mortality figure of 295 is much closer to reality than the Lancet's 195...

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db427.htm#Summary

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm

« Last Edit: March 14, 2022, 02:43:35 AM by PlatinumGuy »
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4935 on: March 14, 2022, 07:53:53 AM »


When OWID claims to report actual data and the lancet paper claims to report 'estimates', it's obvious which one to trust,
There is no such thing as actual data of how many people would have died if covid didn't exist. Are you jumping on their use of the word estimate?
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4936 on: March 14, 2022, 10:47:34 AM »
There is no such thing as actual data of how many people would have died if covid didn't exist. Are you jumping on their use of the word estimate?
Lancet is estimating how many people actually died in 2020-2021. OWID is using data.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4937 on: March 14, 2022, 10:49:04 AM »
Lancet is estimating how many people actually died in 2020-2021. OWID is using data.
Did they give a reason they didn't use the actual data you are saying exists?
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4938 on: March 14, 2022, 11:21:37 AM »
Here is another example of how pathetic this is.
 
The Lancet paper claims 8,900-11,700 excess deaths in Denmark between 1/1/2020 & 12/31/2021 (basing their analysis on estimated 10,400)

The actual Danish government total death count 'that I am saying exists' is:

2017 53,261
2018 55,232
2019 53,958
2020 54,645
2021 57,152


Even if you assume the expected deaths in 2020 & 2021 are the lowest of the 3 preceding years, 53,261, without averaging or accounting for population growth, you'd still only get ~6300 excess deaths.

In reality, the difference from 2018 to 2021 is small enough that there likely were no excess deaths at all in Denmark (and the few Covid deaths were made up for with less flu deaths and the like)

https://www.dst.dk/en/Statistik/emner/borgere/befolkning/doedsfald
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4939 on: March 14, 2022, 11:29:02 AM »
Here is another example of how pathetic this is.
 
The Lancet paper claims 8,900-11,700 excess deaths in Denmark between 1/1/2020 & 12/31/2021 (basing their analysis on estimated 10,400)

The actual Danish government total death count 'that I am saying exists' is:

2017 53,261
2018 55,232
2019 53,958
2020 54,645
2021 57,152


Even if you assume the expected deaths in 2020 & 2021 are the lowest of the 3 preceding years, 53,261, without averaging or accounting for population growth, you'd still only get ~6300 excess deaths.

In reality, the difference from 2018 to 2021 is small enough that there likely were no excess deaths at all in Denmark (and the few Covid deaths were made up for with less flu deaths and the like)

https://www.dst.dk/en/Statistik/emner/borgere/befolkning/doedsfald
I based totally on your claim without verifying and therefore called it that. Do they give any reasoning as to why they didn't just use the numbers you are pointing to?
Feelings don't care about your facts