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« Last edited by Joel on July 19, 2021, 01:49:19 AM »

Author Topic: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread  (Read 575247 times)

Offline yuneeq

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #300 on: March 01, 2020, 09:00:39 PM »
Do you have real numbers on this? because what I've seen (and admittedly I haven't been following too closely) seemed to indicate otherwise.

Check the wiki. The only numbers that might indicate otherwise is the total deaths caused by COVID19, those are still lower than the flu, simply because it hasn't had the chance to spread yet. But looking forward, not backwards, it's incomparable.
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Offline whYME

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #301 on: March 01, 2020, 09:05:16 PM »
it's incomparable.
The mortality rate is not comparable?

Offline AJK

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #302 on: March 01, 2020, 09:19:08 PM »
The mortality rate is not comparable?

Yes.  COVID19 must more deadly.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #303 on: March 01, 2020, 10:13:02 PM »
The mortality rate is not comparable?
I'm no scientist or mathematician but the mortality rate on confirmed cases seems much higher (2-3% vs. 0.1%), though it's possible that there are huge numbers of undiagnosed cases that would being that rate way down.

Also, even if the mortality rate is the same or lower, IF it's much more contagious than the flu then far more people could get infected and it could be deadlier overall than the flu even with a lower mortality rate, no?

Offline yuneeq

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #305 on: March 01, 2020, 10:59:17 PM »
Woman in Manhattan tested positive.
A democracy is a form of government, not an intrinsic truth

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #306 on: March 01, 2020, 11:37:43 PM »


Anyone thinking this won’t be all over (at least like the Flu) is in denial IMHO. I do think containment protocols will change, as school closures and massive lockdowns Wuhan style will not work globally. There will be increased awareness to hand washing, less handshakes and kisses, and lots of sanitizing. Clorox, Lysol, Purell etc will see an exponential growth in sales.

With time a vaccine (as effective as the flu shot FWIW) will come, as well as better treatment protocols lowering the mortality rate.

+100

The point is this isn't going away any time soon


I'm no scientist or mathematician but the mortality rate on confirmed cases seems much higher (2-3% vs. 0.1%), though it's possible that there are huge numbers of undiagnosed cases that would being that rate way down.

Also, even if the mortality rate is the same or lower, IF it's much more contagious than the flu then far more people could get infected and it could be deadlier overall than the flu even with a lower mortality rate, no?

1. You have many undiagnosed cases of the flu as well.

2.  No one has a clue of what the real rate as China is definitely flubbing the numbers... They went from 76,000 to 80,000 confirmed cases in the last week...

Offline yesitsme

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #307 on: March 01, 2020, 11:37:57 PM »
Should I be concerned to Wear clothing recently made In/  brought from China?

source:  https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses
Quote
Is it safe to receive a package from any area where COVID-19 has been reported?
Yes. The likelihood of an infected person contaminating commercial goods is low and the risk of catching the virus that causes COVID-19 from a package that has been moved, travelled, and exposed to different conditions and temperature is also low.
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #308 on: March 01, 2020, 11:52:06 PM »
w.  No one has a clue of what the real rate as China is definitely flubbing the numbers... They went from 76,000 to 80,000 confirmed cases in the last week...

Just look at the breakdown by province, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, 1 death a piece which is less than 0.1% CFR. Jiangsu 631 cases and no fatalities. A bunch of the biggest provinces under 1%. While Hubei is at 4.2%, and a few smaller provinces at 2-4% despite far fewer cases. Comparing the provinces numbers to states/countries both in & out of China, they don't add up.
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #309 on: March 01, 2020, 11:54:24 PM »
There's also this gem - https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/ez13dv/oc_quadratic_coronavirus_epidemic_growth_model/

Was able to predict the numbers with scary foresight until China caught on like a week later.
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Offline ilherman

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #310 on: March 01, 2020, 11:57:44 PM »
I am trying to understand, when we talk about this being deadly, does this mean perfectly healthy people who get it are at risk to die? Or we are talking about sick, half dead people who caught it and have died in the process?   If the later is true why is no one talking about it?

And I have the same question about the flu. I hear the media talking about tens of thousands people dying from it. I live in a neighborhood where almost everybody got the flu this season and NO ONE has died. What am I missing?
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #311 on: March 02, 2020, 12:01:23 AM »
I am trying to understand, when we talk about this being deadly, does this mean perfectly healthy people who get it are at risk to die? Or we are talking about sick, half dead people who caught it and have died in the process?   If the later is true why is no one talking about it?

And I have the same question about the flu. I hear the media talking about tens of thousands people dying from it. I live in a neighborhood where almost everybody got the flu this season and NO ONE has died. What am I missing?
much bigger chance for sick/older people to die

Offline ilherman

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #312 on: March 02, 2020, 12:04:11 AM »
Again, i don't know a single old man in my area who dies from the flu. What am I missing?
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #313 on: March 02, 2020, 12:07:04 AM »
I am trying to understand, when we talk about this being deadly, does this mean perfectly healthy people who get it are at risk to die? Or we are talking about sick, half dead people who caught it and have died in the process?   If the later is true why is no one talking about it?

And I have the same question about the flu. I hear the media talking about tens of thousands people dying from it. I live in a neighborhood where almost everybody got the flu this season and NO ONE has died. What am I missing?

Everyone is at risk, but at different levels. Healthy people can die, but most likely age 50 and up. Then there are people that might not be sick, but have a pre-existing condition like heart issues, are at a far greater risk. And the highest risk would be someone that is already sick and/or old. Then there's the secondary risk - 20% of cases require hospitalization (flu is at about 1.5%), and usually a minimum of 3 weeks. This overloads hospitals and means patients might not get treated during outbreak. Increases odds of death, just look at Hubei's numbers for an idea.
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Offline yesitsme

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #314 on: March 02, 2020, 12:18:42 AM »

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #315 on: March 02, 2020, 12:53:51 AM »
Anyone thinking this won’t be all over (at least like the Flu) is in denial IMHO. I do think containment protocols will change, as school closures and massive lockdowns Wuhan style will not work globally. There will be increased awareness to hand washing, less handshakes and kisses, and lots of sanitizing. Clorox, Lysol, Purell etc will see an exponential growth in sales.

With time a vaccine (as effective as the flu shot FWIW) will come, as well as better treatment protocols lowering the mortality rate.

I forgot to mention that I also think that "keep your hands below your neckline" is going to become common knowledge and taught in kindergartens. It has been a known tip for avoiding many illnesses that come from bacteria and viruses, but will now become as common as the instructions for brushing teeth and washing hands.
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Offline ExGingi

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #318 on: March 02, 2020, 01:56:37 AM »
There's also this gem - https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/ez13dv/oc_quadratic_coronavirus_epidemic_growth_model/

Was able to predict the numbers with scary foresight until China caught on like a week later.
Interesting.

Would love to see his continued prediction

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #319 on: March 02, 2020, 10:02:08 AM »
Time to buy airline shares?  For example UAL?
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