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« Last edited by Joel on July 19, 2021, 01:49:19 AM »

Author Topic: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread  (Read 575292 times)

Offline aygart

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #360 on: March 03, 2020, 02:46:09 PM »
Being exposed to someone with a disease does not mean that "there is a likelihood that it has already spread from him to others in the frum community."

Merely being in the same room with someone is not enough to catch this.

Even shaking his hand would not be enough if he did not have secretions on his hand and the person who shook his hand did not go to his own mouth or nose with his hand afterwards.

Although it is possible that someone could have caught it, I think that its a leap to say that "there is a likelihood that it has already spread from him to others in the frum community."
a likelyhood and likely are not the same thing.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #362 on: March 03, 2020, 02:51:54 PM »
a likelyhood and likely are not the same thing.

Sorry, but that's 100% incorrect.

Quote
Dictionary
Search for a word
like·li·hood
/ˈlīklēˌho͝od/

noun
the state or fact of something's being likely; probability.

Offline Yard sale

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #363 on: March 03, 2020, 02:55:32 PM »
Appears there was exposure to students in  YU. One of them a son of his with symptoms.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #364 on: March 03, 2020, 03:05:07 PM »
This doesn't bode well for the hope that most cases were too mild to be found.

https://mobile.twitter.com/WHO/status/1234871807800479744

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Offline aygart

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #365 on: March 03, 2020, 03:06:00 PM »
Sorry, but that's 100% incorrect.

Quote
Dictionary
Search for a word
like·li·hood
/ˈlīklēˌho͝od/

noun
the state or fact of something's being likely; probability.
Okay, so now we are discussing reading comprehension of the dictionary. lol.

Yes, it is a state of something's being likely. A probability. This means that something with a 5% chance is a likelihood. If there is a known exposure tht creates a likelihood. What are the odds? figure it out.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2020, 06:06:53 PM by aygart »
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #366 on: March 03, 2020, 03:35:39 PM »


Since I don't tend to believe media outlets, much less so Israeli ones, I will take this with a teaspoon of salt.

That being said, if indeed this is being considered, someone should give these guys a huge wakeup זעץ.

14 day quarantines will do close to nothing. You can't take Wuhan style measures all over the world. This is and will continue spreading. Education as to avoidance is the most that can be done. You can't fight a coming hurricane or tsunami, but you could prepare with protective measures. Those protective measures don't include suicide (which is fool proof, as we've never heard of catastrophies happening to the dead).

I believe that our Commander in Chief has been evaluating the use of Nukes to stop tsunamis...

Given the incubation period and the fact that it’s a frum guy who presumably goes to shul it is exceedingly likely that it is already becoming widespread in the frum community as we speak.

+100

I don't know how you can draw the conclusion that he spread the virus. Yes he was in the same shul with people, but that only means that they were exposed to someone with the virus, not that "there is a likelihood that it has already spread from him."

The point wasn't if he was spreading it or not. The point is that a shul that he went to multiple times over the past 2 weeks had an individual with the virus.

What is the reasoning behind the school closings today? To disinfect the schools is one thing but if any of the kids or staff ch'v did get infected they will just bring it back tomorrow so what was gained other then adding to the hysteria?

Maybes they will stay closed for 14 days

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #367 on: March 03, 2020, 03:36:23 PM »
This doesn't bode well for the hope that most cases were too mild to be found.

https://mobile.twitter.com/WHO/status/1234871807800479744
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

Some things here are incongruent with what was previously (and possibly currently) reported:

Quote
Both COVID-19 and influenza cause respiratory disease and spread the same way, via small droplets of fluid from the nose and mouth of someone who is sick.

However, there are some important differences between COVID-19 and influenza.

First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far.

With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19.

Quote
And fourth, we don’t even talk about containment for seasonal flu – it’s just not possible. But it is possible for COVID-19. We don’t do contact tracing for seasonal flu – but countries should do it for COVID-19, because it will prevent infections and save lives. Containment is possible.
::)

Quote
To summarize, COVID-19 spreads less efficiently than flu, transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, it causes more severe illness than flu, there are not yet any vaccines or therapeutics, and it can be contained – which is why we must do everything we can to contain it. That’s why WHO recommends a comprehensive approach.
« Last Edit: March 03, 2020, 04:37:58 PM by ExGingi »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #369 on: March 03, 2020, 04:20:02 PM »
I assume that is referring to the Young Israel of New Rochelle?
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #370 on: March 03, 2020, 04:22:41 PM »
I assume that is referring to the Young Israel of New Rochelle?
Thats correct.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #371 on: March 03, 2020, 04:34:32 PM »
I guess there’s not going to be much Purim in New Rochelle

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #372 on: March 03, 2020, 04:36:22 PM »
I guess there’s not going to be much Purim in New Rochelle
Hopefully its doesnt make its way to the rest of the frum communities before purim.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #374 on: March 03, 2020, 05:43:19 PM »
I thought this article was really interesting, especially since Covid seems to be statistically so much more deadly for older people (about 15% for age 80+) but has statistically few cases and almost no fatalities for children or pregnant woman (unlike RSV that is so serious for infants) and I don't believe any fatalities for children under 10yrs old.  I was reading somewhere that Covid's real danger for catastrophic fatalities is if it spreads through nursing homes and this info seems to bear this out.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

some interesting quotes:
"The death toll skews old even more strongly. Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39."

"It may be that immuno-suppression is actually helpful. Some of the most serious symptoms of Covid-19 result from an immune system on the rampage rather than a lethargic one, Chinese scientists found: An extreme immune response called cytokine storm, a flood of immune cells and the biochemicals they produce, tears through lung tissue."
 
"The high fatality rate of Covid-19 in already-sick people might result not from the virus but from an exacerbation of existing disease."


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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #375 on: March 03, 2020, 05:54:35 PM »
Hopefully its doesnt make its way to the rest of the frum communities before purim.

Regardless I was planning to avoid close contact on Purim.
Don't know if there's a day where we are more vulnerable.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #376 on: March 03, 2020, 05:55:34 PM »
Quote
Iranians have posted several videos on social media featuring devout Shiites licking holy shrines in defiance of the coronavirus, MEMRI says.

On March 1, 2020, a pilgrim posted a video of himself licking the steel bars protecting the window of a Shiite shrine, according to MEMRI. He said that many people have “spread lies” that this window “contracted” corona, AIDS, hepatitis, and “such nonsense.”

He said that he is licking the bars so the disease enters his body and future pilgrims will be safe, MEMRI reports. “I have now eaten the corona disease,.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #377 on: March 03, 2020, 06:00:45 PM »
I thought this article was really interesting, especially since Covid seems to be statistically so much more deadly for older people (about 15% for age 80+) but has statistically few cases and almost no fatalities for children or pregnant woman (unlike RSV that is so serious for infants) and I don't believe any fatalities for children under 10yrs old.  I was reading somewhere that Covid's real danger for catastrophic fatalities is if it spreads through nursing homes and this info seems to bear this out.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

some interesting quotes:
"The death toll skews old even more strongly. Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39."

"It may be that immuno-suppression is actually helpful. Some of the most serious symptoms of Covid-19 result from an immune system on the rampage rather than a lethargic one, Chinese scientists found: An extreme immune response called cytokine storm, a flood of immune cells and the biochemicals they produce, tears through lung tissue."
 
"The high fatality rate of Covid-19 in already-sick people might result not from the virus but from an exacerbation of existing disease."
4/6 deaths in Washington State were from the same nursing home.

ETA (as of 3/2/2020)
« Last Edit: March 03, 2020, 06:10:03 PM by avromie7 »
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline yuneeq

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #378 on: March 03, 2020, 06:01:17 PM »
I thought this article was really interesting, especially since Covid seems to be statistically so much more deadly for older people (about 15% for age 80+) but has statistically few cases and almost no fatalities for children or pregnant woman (unlike RSV that is so serious for infants) and I don't believe any fatalities for children under 10yrs old.  I was reading somewhere that Covid's real danger for catastrophic fatalities is if it spreads through nursing homes and this info seems to bear this out.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

some interesting quotes:
"The death toll skews old even more strongly. Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39."

"It may be that immuno-suppression is actually helpful. Some of the most serious symptoms of Covid-19 result from an immune system on the rampage rather than a lethargic one, Chinese scientists found: An extreme immune response called cytokine storm, a flood of immune cells and the biochemicals they produce, tears through lung tissue."
 
"The high fatality rate of Covid-19 in already-sick people might result not from the virus but from an exacerbation of existing disease."

Something I would add - a lot of fatalities are not necessarily from people that are sick. You might see some deaths described as - "patient had an underlying illness".  Many times it means they were not sick and were living fine with a condition such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, or other health issues. The scary thing I think is that many older people have some underlying health condition.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #379 on: March 03, 2020, 06:01:57 PM »
Regardless I was planning to avoid close contact on Purim.
Don't know if there's a day where we are more vulnerable.
The amount of things passing hands makes this incredibly difficult.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.