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« Last edited by Joel on July 19, 2021, 01:49:19 AM »

Author Topic: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread  (Read 575307 times)

Offline yesitsme

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #440 on: March 06, 2020, 12:43:44 AM »
for some reason this virus reminds me of the world trade center
when the 1st plane crashed FDNY said everyone should stay calm they have it under control and advised against leaving till everything came tumbling down (I wasn't there, מפי השמועה)
trump keeps on reassuring the citizens keep calm its not that bad, CDC don't buy masks, just watch it happening in real time
["-"]

Offline yuneeq

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #441 on: March 06, 2020, 01:00:46 AM »
A few tidbits  -Italy has the world 2nd oldest population after Japan.

So. Korea as of 3.4.2020 had tested 130K people had 5,300 cases and 32 deaths   -  With a mortality rate of .06% 

The Diamond Princess has a mortality rate of  .08%

The other end of the spectrum is China, Iran and Italy at 3~3. 8% mortality rate.  The majority of deaths in Italy have been those 60+ years old, the same with the US.

Apparently there are two strains of the Covid19 - based on the progression in  Italy, South Korea and Iran - we will either see a huge uptick in cases and perhaps deaths in the US and other parts of the world.

First off, you are calculating all your percentages wrong. Eg. Diamond Princess - you are trying to say it's 0.8%, but you wrote .08%, a 10x difference. Same for South Korea. Regardless, the number you are looking for based on your (flawed) methodology is 7 out of 775 - 0.9% . Next - you are using an overly simplistic method of calculating CFR, as not all cases have been completed yet. There are still 34 severe cases, and only 40 confirmed recoveries. Some people calculate death to completed case ratio, which is also flawed at this point in the other direction, as most cases are not yet finalized but will likely recover. One last point about the DP. It can teach us a lot about the fatality and severe case rate (once it's over) in a mostly controlled setting. The outbreak on the DP does not account for hospitals that are potentially overwhelmed like in Hubei, where the CFR is currently very high at 4.3%.   

South Korea and Italy and any country ramping up testing needs to be analyzed properly. Due to extensive testing, they are finding cases very early. Italy's first case was confirmed only 2 weeks ago. You can't use the thousands of newly discovered cases as evidence of a low CFR when it can take 6-8 weeks to die.

OTOH, the numbers from the US is pretty concerning. Not because of the high CFR, it will go down. The problem is they're only finding new cases if they're severe or fatal. Mild or asymptomatic cases are only discovered if they are linked to an existing confirmed case. This points at an alarming amount of mild cases that are spreading the virus all over the US and no one has a clue.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #442 on: March 06, 2020, 04:03:48 AM »
GE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
21.9%
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old   
no fatalities



Why the lack of deaths under 10? what is different about this disease that it is killing older people vs babies/children??

Offline Buruch

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #443 on: March 06, 2020, 05:24:32 AM »
All these are based on percentages of confirmed cases? It doesn't seem like they're accounting for cases that never come in and get tested, so it's probably actually lower. That's basically impossible to eatate at this point. The flu has been around long enough that they can make educated guesses.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #444 on: March 06, 2020, 07:50:58 AM »
GE
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old
21.9%
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old   
no fatalities



Why the lack of deaths under 10? what is different about this disease that it is killing older people vs babies/children??

From what I've read is that the immature immune system of youth - doesn't respond and activate the Mast cells and initiate a robust histamine response (i.e. congestion from mucus [an example of  an extreme histamine response i.e. allergy to peanuts better known as  anaphylaxic shock]) which causes/leads to the respiratory issues/breathing issues.

Smokers and persons with Hypertension/Cardiac issues tend to have lower O² saturation even when not sick -  they will have higher mortality when infected with a respiratory virus.  So they succumb to respiratory failure - (i.e. your O² blood saturation is too low and CO² concentration is too high in your blood because your lungs are not able to exchange the gases in your blood).

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #445 on: March 06, 2020, 07:57:35 AM »
Rabbi for synagogue at center of New York coronavirus outbreak tests positive https://nypost.com/2020/03/06/rabbi-at-new-rochelle-coronavirus-synagogue-has-tested-positive/
See my 5 step program to your left <--

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #446 on: March 06, 2020, 08:04:03 AM »
All these are based on percentages of confirmed cases? It doesn't seem like they're accounting for cases that never come in and get tested, so it's probably actually lower. That's basically impossible to eatate at this point. The flu has been around long enough that they can make educated guesses.

The percentages you are seeing are coming from dashboards that are only counting confirmed cases. The dashboards are not trying to predict the final CFR, they are simply tallying the currently known CFR. This is not an estimate or a prediction for how things will turn out. It’s the epidemiologists that estimate what the real CFR might end up being, and there are plenty of data points that can help them get a decent estimate.

A big debate is how many asymptomatic/mild cases are not being counted as confirmed cases. One way to figure this out - find out the how the virus affects large groups of people that are randomly tested, where testing criteria isn’t based on a person developing symptoms. So imagine a case where 10k people were exposed to a confirmed case, and that same day we take all 10k people and start testing and monitoring. If we find 5000 confirmed cases, we check after 6-8 weeks, how many of them never develop any symptoms? How many have mild symptoms, and how many are hospitalized or die? If the rate is 80% mild/no symptoms, 20% severe/2% die, then we can apply that rate to completed cases to see how many cases we missed. If the completed numbers are showing 40% severe cases, we know we’re likely missing half the milder cases, and can adjust the CFR by half to 1.7%. But if the ratio is 25% severe cases, then we are not missing much, and the estimated CFR will only be lowered to 2.7%. (Obviously this is a simplified explanation as experts will be adjusting for age, health conditions, and other factors).

Where might we find significant testing not based on symptoms? South Korea is testing the entire church cult consisting of 210k members. We might need to be patient until all this data is ready, but regardless it’s too early to say what the final CFR will be.

One last thing - the experts provided estimates of about 8% CFR for SARS during that outbreak but, that number was actually revised upwards to 10% after everything was over. Which means the experts overestimated the amount of unconfirmed cases. When we see expert estimates of 1-3% CFR, they’re already basing that on their estimate of unconfirmed cases. No need to adjust and reduce their numbers further.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #447 on: March 06, 2020, 09:16:42 AM »
Rabbi for synagogue at center of New York coronavirus outbreak tests positive https://nypost.com/2020/03/06/rabbi-at-new-rochelle-coronavirus-synagogue-has-tested-positive/
Wow. He is my stepbrother's father in law.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #448 on: March 06, 2020, 03:52:30 PM »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline grodnoking

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #449 on: March 06, 2020, 04:20:10 PM »
So this one guy has the virus, and over 3 weeks of him not knowing he had it it spread to tens of people if not more. Those people walked around for awhile too with it not knowing. I can't imagine how many people will be known to have it once we start (if they ever) testing anyone who had to do with the second level of this virus. And by the time we find them they will have spread it further. This is uncontainable and whoever gave that ratio of 1 person infecting 1.3 to 2 people is way off.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #451 on: March 06, 2020, 06:13:26 PM »
"....The national health institute said the average age of those who had died so far was 81, with the vast majority suffering underlying health problems. Just 28 per cent were women.

The fatality rate from the illness in Italy, which has one of the oldest populations in the world, is running at 4.25 per cent...."
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-italy-deaths-mar-6-12511380








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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #452 on: March 07, 2020, 05:12:55 PM »
So this one guy has the virus, and over 3 weeks of him not knowing he had it it spread to tens of people if not more. Those people walked around for awhile too with it not knowing. I can't imagine how many people will be known to have it once we start (if they ever) testing anyone who had to do with the second level of this virus. And by the time we find them they will have spread it further. This is uncontainable and whoever gave that ratio of 1 person infecting 1.3 to 2 people is way off.
That's not necessarily the case. If the guy wasn't coughing it up or sneezing it out and/or the other people were practicing proper hygiene, there's no reason why that should be true.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #453 on: March 07, 2020, 07:41:15 PM »
Now the conspiracy is did they release the virus by accident...

So now I'm thinking you may be onto something here. Trump put tarrifs on China. China gets mad. China releases this virus which they know will eventually go worldwide. The markets will crash. Trump will be pushed out of office. China wins.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #454 on: March 07, 2020, 08:39:01 PM »
Start from 5:15 :P

Uh, no.  This guy predicts millions will die.  No one thinks the world is coming to an end.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #456 on: March 07, 2020, 10:31:43 PM »
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #458 on: March 07, 2020, 11:14:47 PM »
I think the whole world should go on a preventive quarantine  for 2 weeks. 
Starting Wednesday, no one leaves their house anywhere, except for a skeleton crew of essential personnel.
This would alleviate the protracted situation we have now. Besides killing people, it's killing the economy.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #459 on: March 07, 2020, 11:39:33 PM »
Why isn't the US building new regional hospiatls to manage this