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« Last edited by Joel on July 19, 2021, 01:49:19 AM »

Author Topic: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread  (Read 575289 times)

Offline aygart

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #720 on: March 15, 2020, 07:01:35 PM »
Not sure why you say they are far worse. Are you looking at all the numbers like number of tests? They are testing more people per capita than anywhere else in the world.
In a country of 51m they have over 8000 cases . That is much worse than 3000 for 331m or about 1000 in the NY Metro with population 21m. They do seem to be doing better with fatalities for those infected, but 60% of the fatalities were surrounding the one nursing home in WA. NY Metro has 3.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #721 on: March 15, 2020, 07:08:04 PM »
In a country of 51m they have over 8000 cases . That is much worse than 3000 for 331m or about 1000 in the NY Metro with population 21m. They do seem to be doing better with fatalities for those infected, but 60% of the fatalities were surrounding the one nursing home in WA. NY Metro has 3.
...and are their numbers going up or down? We know our numbers are going up at a high rate.

Number of cases have to be adjusted for testing.  ;)
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #722 on: March 15, 2020, 07:24:12 PM »
...and are their numbers going up or down? We know our numbers are going up at a high rate.

Number of cases have to be adjusted for testing.  ;)
Not nearly as high as theirs did. Lack of testing would account for non serious cases only.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #723 on: March 15, 2020, 07:41:24 PM »
Not nearly as high as theirs did. Lack of testing would account for non serious cases only.

US is still diagnosing cases posthumously. Numbers don’t give me much confidence.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #724 on: March 15, 2020, 07:42:48 PM »
US is still diagnosing cases posthumously. Numbers don’t give me much confidence.
Okay, is there any evidence that we are worse than SK or is it presumption?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #725 on: March 15, 2020, 07:45:44 PM »
Not nearly as high as theirs did.
That wasn't the question but we know why you didn't answer it. Their numbers are going down while ours are going up at a high rate. They are doing something right and we are doing something wrong just like Italy.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #726 on: March 15, 2020, 07:53:36 PM »
That wasn't the question but we know why you didn't answer it. Their numbers are going down while ours are going up at a high rate. They are doing something right and we are doing something wrong just like Italy.
Our numbers are not going up as quickly as theirs did. A successfully flattened curve would still be going up while unflattened curve would already be declining. I am not saying that this is what is happening and, of course, have no data to back this up. That it will rise to be worse than SK is speculation. Once speculating, let's see the optimistic speculation as well. Note that, even with this optimistic view, it is likely to get much worse before it gets better.

Note that for us to be as bad as it was in SK we would need to have about 42,000 cases and close to 600 fatalities.

« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 08:02:20 PM by aygart »
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #727 on: March 15, 2020, 07:58:47 PM »
Okay, is there any evidence that we are worse than SK or is it presumption?

US has a higher death rate and lower recovered rate. Higher death rate means we missed a lot of cases due to lack of testing and lower recovered rate means we're only starting to pick up on new cases now. Aside for that, SK numbers are declining due to better knowledge of where it spread and how to contain it, while US numbers are skyrocketing. Also SK is performing better despite having to deal with a secretive cult that were extremely careless and not cooperative.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #728 on: March 15, 2020, 08:03:16 PM »
Our numbers are not going up as quickly as theirs did. A successfully flattened curve would still be going up while unflattened curve would already be declining.
Blah blah blah. I asked a simple question and you refused to answer because it doesn't support your twisting of the numbers.
Let me ask again in case you forgot. Our numbers are going up at a high rate. Are their numbers going up or down? Hint: It is not up!!!  :P
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #729 on: March 15, 2020, 08:04:13 PM »
US has a higher death rate and lower recovered rate. Higher death rate means we missed a lot of cases due to lack of testing and lower recovered rate means we're only starting to pick up on new cases now. Aside for that, SK numbers are declining due to better knowledge of where it spread and how to contain it, while US numbers are skyrocketing. Also SK is performing better despite having to deal with a secretive cult that were extremely careless and not cooperative.
If you take out the nursing home in WA the death rate drops by over 50%.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #730 on: March 15, 2020, 08:04:25 PM »
US has a higher death rate and lower recovered rate. Higher death rate means we missed a lot of cases due to lack of testing and lower recovered rate means we're only starting to pick up on new cases now. Aside for that, SK numbers are declining due to better knowledge of where it spread and how to contain it, while US numbers are skyrocketing. Also SK is performing better despite having to deal with a secretive cult that were extremely careless and not cooperative.
You are starting to wear on me.  :)
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #731 on: March 15, 2020, 08:05:23 PM »
If you take out the nursing home in WA the death rate drops by over 50%.
If you take out SK aggressive testing they would have less cases then us. If a frog had a tail ...
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #732 on: March 15, 2020, 08:06:29 PM »
Blah blah blah. I asked a simple question and you refused to answer because it doesn't support your twisting of the numbers.
Let me ask again in case you forgot. Our numbers are going up at a high rate. Are their numbers going up or down? Hint: It is not up!!!  :P
Yes theirs are going down, but if the US had done the absolute best possible that is what would happen to have US cases going up while places which did not flatten the curve would be already going down..
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #733 on: March 15, 2020, 08:07:16 PM »
If you take out SK aggressive testing they would have less cases then us. If a frog had a tail ...
When did this aggressive testing start?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #734 on: March 15, 2020, 08:08:04 PM »
Yes theirs are going down,
Thank you.
...but if the US had done the absolute best possible that is what would happen to have US cases going up while places which did not flatten the curve would be already going down..
Not following what you are saying.
When did this aggressive testing start?
Not sure.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #735 on: March 15, 2020, 08:10:00 PM »
If you take out the nursing home in WA the death rate drops by over 50%.

And if you take out the Shincheonji cult SK would have 5x less cases. But they have it so we count it, just like we count the lack of testing and procedures for letting the virus spread into nursing homes. A quick story a nursing home administrator related to me first hand - they had a patient in the ER, and supposed to return to the SNF. He did some research and found out from the nurses that the patient was in the ER at the same time as a confirmed corona case. They didn't notify my friend, they simply planned on returning him after potential exposure. He noped right out of it.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #736 on: March 15, 2020, 08:14:27 PM »
Thank you.Not following what you are saying.Not sure.

A successfully flattened curve would still be going up while unflattened curve would already be declining. I am not saying that this is what is happening and, of course, have no data to back this up. That it will rise to be worse than SK is speculation. Once speculating, let's see the optimistic speculation as well. Note that, even with this optimistic view, it is likely to get much worse before it gets better.



Did the testing regime start before or after the number of new cases started to drop at the end of February?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #737 on: March 15, 2020, 08:18:24 PM »
Did the testing regime start before or after the number of new cases started to drop at the end of February?
Don't know.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #738 on: March 15, 2020, 08:20:04 PM »
Our numbers are not going up as quickly as theirs did. A successfully flattened curve would still be going up while unflattened curve would already be declining. I am not saying that this is what is happening and, of course, have no data to back this up. That it will rise to be worse than SK is speculation. Once speculating, let's see the optimistic speculation as well. Note that, even with this optimistic view, it is likely to get much worse before it gets better.

Note that for us to be as bad as it was in SK we would need to have about 42,000 cases and close to 600 fatalities.



Flattening the curve is important if the curve will hit above the dotted line. But the way I see it projected is like the attached.
You can guess which country is which.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #739 on: March 15, 2020, 08:24:11 PM »
You can guess which country is which.
Blue is SK?  ;)
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