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« Last edited by username on June 19, 2020, 10:39:33 AM »

Author Topic: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread  (Read 150823 times)

Offline Euclid

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #1905 on: April 13, 2020, 09:52:17 PM »
Reported cases are meaningless. There are 8 million in NYC alone and only 200k positive tests out of how many tested? positive cases are a very very poor metric. If you use them NYS has a 5%+ death rate which is just not true while Israel has a .9% rate. They arent doing that much of a better job than us. Deaths are a lagging indicator. Everyone agrees on that. But to use positive cases as a metric other than for the hyperbole that the media needs/uses/wants it for, is foolish.

Deaths are problematic too if (as reported) they aren't enumerating the COVID-19 deaths occurring out of hospitals.

Offline simple26

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #1906 on: April 13, 2020, 11:34:43 PM »
Reported cases are meaningless. There are 8 million in NYC alone and only 200k positive tests out of how many tested? positive cases are a very very poor metric. If you use them NYS has a 5%+ death rate which is just not true while Israel has a .9% rate. They arent doing that much of a better job than us. Deaths are a lagging indicator. Everyone agrees on that. But to use positive cases as a metric other than for the hyperbole that the media needs/uses/wants it for, is foolish.
8 million what ?
Reported cases? Does that mean the whole nyc had it ?

Offline hvaces42

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #1907 on: April 14, 2020, 12:01:24 AM »
8 million what ?
Reported cases? Does that mean the whole nyc had it ?
8 million people. With 200k reported positives. Sorry wasnt clear.
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Offline avromie7

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #1908 on: April 14, 2020, 12:17:43 AM »
8 million people. With 200k reported positives. Sorry wasnt clear.
it's a little over 100k cases in NYC
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline yitzgar

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #1909 on: April 14, 2020, 12:43:10 AM »
« Last Edit: April 14, 2020, 12:47:49 AM by yitzgar »

Offline hvaces42

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #1910 on: April 14, 2020, 12:51:36 AM »
Fair warning - Any PMs sent in response to forum posts are fair game for ridicule in public.

Offline Lurker

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #1911 on: April 14, 2020, 04:36:13 AM »
We've gone through this before, and there are no good numbers to work with. I'll try to sum it up.

The issue with confirmed cases starts with our numbers in the US. We know most people with the virus didn't get tested. We also know that the accuracy of the tests has been reported to be as low as 50-60%. Both os these things are leading to greatly underreported confirmed cases here. To then compare our inaccurate numbers to those of other countries, who are administrating different tests in different ways and have a plethora of their own issues... let's just say it's very far from scientific.

Deaths are a little more accurate, but not by much. There are 2 main issues with comparing US deaths with other countries. The first is accuracy. The US has pretty accurate statistics on deaths, even those at home, but they aren't complete. While some other countries also have accurate death records, they are a tiny minority. Most countries don't have the infrastructure to report accurately on a good day, and definitely not during a crisis. The second issue with death numbers is that each country has their own standard for what they consider a Covid-19 related death. The US has the broadest definition. If you die in the US and Covid-19 is a factor, you count. Cancer, heart attack, kidney issue, degenerative disease - doesn't matter. If covid-19 played any kind of part, it counts. Other countries have a very wide variety of definitions, and they are more likely to have narrower criteria.

In other words, to do a comparative study, you need to compare apples to apples. We don't even know how many apples we have to compare to their oranges, cherries, or bananas.
Please wear a mask.

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Offline CountValentine

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #1913 on: April 14, 2020, 06:20:23 AM »
If you die in the US and Covid-19 is a factor, you count. Cancer, heart attack, kidney issue, degenerative disease - doesn't matter. If covid-19 played any kind of part, it counts.
Do you have a source for this?
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Offline moko

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #1914 on: April 14, 2020, 07:23:32 AM »
Do you have a source for this?
Firsthand knowledge...
Using your g-d given right of stupidity is an option, not a requirement. Please use sparingly.

Offline efflpetzel

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #1915 on: April 14, 2020, 07:46:00 AM »
We've gone through this before, and there are no good numbers to work with. I'll try to sum it up.

The issue with confirmed cases starts with our numbers in the US. We know most people with the virus didn't get tested. We also know that the accuracy of the tests has been reported to be as low as 50-60%. Both os these things are leading to greatly underreported confirmed cases here. To then compare our inaccurate numbers to those of other countries, who are administrating different tests in different ways and have a plethora of their own issues... let's just say it's very far from scientific.

Deaths are a little more accurate, but not by much. There are 2 main issues with comparing US deaths with other countries. The first is accuracy. The US has pretty accurate statistics on deaths, even those at home, but they aren't complete. While some other countries also have accurate death records, they are a tiny minority. Most countries don't have the infrastructure to report accurately on a good day, and definitely not during a crisis. The second issue with death numbers is that each country has their own standard for what they consider a Covid-19 related death. The US has the broadest definition. If you die in the US and Covid-19 is a factor, you count. Cancer, heart attack, kidney issue, degenerative disease - doesn't matter. If covid-19 played any kind of part, it counts. Other countries have a very wide variety of definitions, and they are more likely to have narrower criteria.

In other words, to do a comparative study, you need to compare apples to apples. We don't even know how many apples we have to compare to their oranges, cherries, or bananas.
So if you die in the USA from whatever reason & test positive for Covid-19 you are presumed to have died of Covid-19, the same is in Europe & most other democracies, so why can't the death rate be a good indicator

Offline Proisrael

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #1916 on: April 14, 2020, 07:46:40 AM »
Do you have a source for this?

Same in Israel. Regardless of how close to death a person was if they had COVID they are classified as a victim.

Offline Ergel

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #1917 on: April 14, 2020, 08:36:32 AM »
Do you have a source for this?
He can't, because it differs from state to state
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #1918 on: April 14, 2020, 09:06:22 AM »
Do you have a source for this?

Dr. Deborah Birx, WH Press Briefing, April 7, 2020
Please wear a mask.

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic
« Reply #1919 on: April 14, 2020, 09:12:54 AM »
Nyc is not counting many who are dying at home as they were never tested.

The number of cardiac arrest deaths at homes in NYC has gone up 400%.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/massive-spike-in-nyc-cardiac-arrest-deaths-seen-as-sign-of-covid-19-undercounting/2368678/%3famp