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« Last edited by Joel on July 19, 2021, 01:49:19 AM »

Author Topic: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread  (Read 580700 times)

Offline Lurker

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2500 on: May 07, 2020, 12:18:45 PM »
Why not? A ~20% daily swing could be consistent with moving hotspots...

Yes, again:

If the virus just traveled and conditions were equal throughout the country, then the plateau theory makes some sense. But during that time, here are just a few variables that have changed, and how I would have expected them to impact the number of new cases:

Increased testing - huge increase of new cases
Social distancing measures by businesses - decrease of new cases, with an increasingly greater impact throughout the 32 days
Availability of PPE - decrease of new cases
Stay-at-home regs - unknown, different states rolled out and rolled back regs a different times, definitely wouldn't expect it to average out perfectly
Moving hotspots - unknown, but given differentials in climates, demographics, population density, local regs, and mass transit usage, again definitely wouldn't expect it to average out perfectly

The range is within 5k, every day, for over a month. That stands out to me.

ETA: each of those variables has the ability to move the count by more than 5k on their own. For them to fail to do that collectively puzzles me.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2501 on: May 07, 2020, 12:19:48 PM »
Definition of inevitable
: incapable of being avoided or evaded

Therapeutic treatment makes death avoidable, and social distancing buys time to find treatments. I'm not understanding your take...

That is great if we would know when there will be treatment available. Continuing where we are indefinitely brings its own problems besides the way it becomes more difficult to enforce as time goes on.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2502 on: May 07, 2020, 12:22:02 PM »
That is great if we would know when there will be treatment available. Continuing where we are indefinitely brings its own problems besides the way it becomes more difficult to enforce as time goes on.

My issue was with the premise that anything is inevitable in this situation.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2503 on: May 07, 2020, 12:26:59 PM »
Yes, again:

ETA: each of those variables has the ability to move the count by more than 5k on their own. For them to fail to do that collectively puzzles me.
I'm not understanding how you're quantifying these variables; 5,000 is roughly a 20% swing, which is significant and not within an error margin.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2504 on: May 07, 2020, 12:31:38 PM »
If it's more contagious and testing has increased, why haven't the new cases increased?
Immunity?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2505 on: May 07, 2020, 12:34:56 PM »
I'm not understanding how you're quantifying these variables; 5,000 is roughly a 20% swing, which is significant and not within an error margin.

With increased testing alone, there should be a change of greater than 16-20%.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2506 on: May 07, 2020, 12:35:56 PM »
Immunity?

By what percentage of the population and how?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2507 on: May 07, 2020, 12:37:58 PM »
They didn't do it from social distancing! They did it by limiting the initial spread through testing the positives and isolating them and their contacts.
Source? They closed schools and most businesses very early on and kept them closed for weeks, as well as telling everyone to stay home and forbidding gathering
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2508 on: May 07, 2020, 12:38:08 PM »
By what percentage of the population and how?
I have no idea. We know the more people that get infected the less of a pool there is to draw from.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2509 on: May 07, 2020, 12:42:55 PM »
I have no idea. We know the more people that get infected the less of a pool there is to draw from.

Possibly. Assuming that's true, it happens to align perfectly to negate the expected rise from dramatically increased testing?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2510 on: May 07, 2020, 02:25:31 PM »
Source? They closed schools and most businesses very early on and kept them closed for weeks, as well as telling everyone to stay home and forbidding gathering
That was combined with being able to contact trace and isolate.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2511 on: May 07, 2020, 03:02:16 PM »
Death is always inevitable, shouldn’t we be delaying it as long as we can?
Also, doesn’t more time give us more vaccine and therapeutic options?
You keep on Falling back on Cuomos mentality of "if we can only save one life"
The answer is death isn't always inevitable!
It is obvious to the intellectually honest that the risk of death goes up as soon as one steps outside ones house.
You have never answered the basic question, at what cost are you willing to delay the inevitable?

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2512 on: May 07, 2020, 03:55:52 PM »
Take a look at how wildly off California’s predictions were. Whomever came up with them should be fired.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/foxreno.com/amp/news/coronavirus/elon-musk-wants-coronavirus-lockdown-to-end
« Last Edit: May 07, 2020, 04:25:50 PM by cmey »

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2513 on: May 07, 2020, 04:21:00 PM »
Take a look at how wildly off California’s predictions were. Whomever came up with them should be fired.
I don't have to look anything up to know this graph is nonsense. Really? They have only 5k cases total? There cumulative case count has been nearly completely flat, maybe even decreasing? I think not.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2514 on: May 07, 2020, 04:28:04 PM »
I don't have to look anything up to know this graph is nonsense. Really? They have only 5k cases total? There cumulative case count has been nearly completely flat, maybe even decreasing? I think not.
I assume that graph is showing hospitalizations

https://calmatters.org/health/coronavirus/2020/04/california-coronavirus-covid-patient-hospitalization-data-icu/
« Last Edit: May 07, 2020, 04:31:46 PM by ari3 »

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2515 on: May 07, 2020, 04:29:00 PM »
Take a look at how wildly off California’s predictions were. Whomever came up with them should be fired.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/foxreno.com/amp/news/coronavirus/elon-musk-wants-coronavirus-lockdown-to-end
Problem is that they are using these kind of predictions to keep us locked up indefinitely

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2516 on: May 07, 2020, 04:36:36 PM »
I assume that graph is showing hospitalizations

https://calmatters.org/health/coronavirus/2020/04/california-coronavirus-covid-patient-hospitalization-data-icu/
Yeah, it says that. But I assume the Newsom predictions they're using would be cases, not beds. Can't actually find any record of such a graph to check.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2517 on: May 07, 2020, 05:50:26 PM »
Yeah, it says that. But I assume the Newsom predictions they're using would be cases, not beds. Can't actually find any record of such a graph to check.

Actually he predicted 50,000 BEDS.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailynews.com/2020/03/23/newsom-coronavirus-social-distancing-measures-could-last-two-or-three-months/amp/

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2518 on: May 07, 2020, 06:10:27 PM »
Actually he predicted 50,000 BEDS.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailynews.com/2020/03/23/newsom-coronavirus-social-distancing-measures-could-last-two-or-three-months/amp/
Who cares what he predicted? Didn’t his early lockdown prove prescient? To all those who say the only hope was to shut it down earlier than NY/NJ did, he did that. Clearly the numbers have been in his favor. Why are you attacking him?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2519 on: May 07, 2020, 06:12:35 PM »
Who cares what he predicted? Didn’t his early lockdown prove prescient? To all those who say the only hope was to shut it down earlier than NY/NJ did, he did that. Clearly the numbers have been in his favor. Why are you attacking him?
Paradox of preparation.


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