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« Last edited by Joel on July 19, 2021, 01:49:19 AM »

Author Topic: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread  (Read 580175 times)

Offline biobook

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2720 on: June 09, 2020, 08:33:34 AM »
Fair amount of people are germaphobes and didn't shake hands before this started

Famous non-hand-shaker, from pre-covid days

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/07/donald-trump-germaphobe-1399258

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2721 on: June 09, 2020, 06:34:24 PM »
Not great. And also can't be waved away like total positive case numbers can.

Offline Afrages6

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2722 on: June 09, 2020, 06:41:49 PM »
Not great. And also can't be waved away like total positive case numbers can.
Texas definitely pushed the envelope and is paying for it. Same thing in Alabama.

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2723 on: June 09, 2020, 06:58:06 PM »
Florida might be too.

Online avromie7

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2724 on: June 09, 2020, 08:06:40 PM »
Not great. And also can't be waved away like total positive case numbers can.
Texas definitely pushed the envelope and is paying for it. Same thing in Alabama.
Time will tell and this is definitely something to watch, but so far it seems they flattened the curve. Texas population is 50% greater than NY, so far their hospitalizations are around 11% of the NY peak.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline ari3

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2725 on: June 09, 2020, 09:50:48 PM »
Texas definitely pushed the envelope and is paying for it. Same thing in Alabama.
Time will tell and this is definitely something to watch, but so far it seems they flattened the curve. Texas population is 50% greater than NY, so far their hospitalizations are around 11% of the NY peak.
In NY/NJ the original stated purpose of the lockdowns was to flatten the curve. That happened many weeks ago and they moved the goalposts and kept the lockdown going. In TX and FL they stuck to the original plan and opened after they flattened the curve. That is going to entail a certain amount of new cases. The question is will it start getting out of control.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2726 on: June 10, 2020, 01:46:38 AM »
Texas is very far from overflowing hospitals, and stocked up effectively on ventilators.

Albama is on the verge of crises, and Florida hospitals aren't so far from capacity. AFAIK FL doesn't release daily hospitalization data.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline shaulyaakov

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2727 on: June 10, 2020, 09:44:52 AM »
We're back in a circle as to what the goal of the lock downs was / should be, and whether states should unlock and then relock if things get out of hand, or just wait to reopen longer.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2728 on: June 10, 2020, 10:07:30 AM »
In NY/NJ the original stated purpose of the lockdowns was to flatten the curve. That happened many weeks ago and they moved the goalposts and kept the lockdown going.

This.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline biobook

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2729 on: June 10, 2020, 10:48:59 AM »
I haven't found data on day-by-day hospitalizations in Florida, but they do show total hospitalizations, and seem to update that daily, so one could write this down and create a chart going forward.   
Maybe Florida deserves its own thread?

I haven't figured out the picture-insert here on DDF, but if someone wants to find it, there are colorful bar graphs in each county on the dashboard, showing cases - by day and by age group.   
Go to the Florida Covid site, https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/
Scroll halfway down to See Dashboard
On the Dashboard, change the tab on the very bottom to Cases by County
On the top right, select the county you want
Orange (Orlando), Palm Beach (Boca), Broward (Hollywood), Dade (Miami)

There's an obvious upward nudge (less than uptick?) in cases in Orange county.

On the Florida covid site, just beneath the link to dashboard, there's a link to Review case, monitoring...  On the State Report, you can see Total Hospitalizations and Deaths.  Similar on the County Reports. 

This is broken down there by age groups.  The >65 year old groups had 23% of the diagnosed cases, 54% of the hospitalizations, and 84% of the deaths.  I was surprised at the high number of hospitalizations in younger groups, but I don't know how that compares to elsewhere. 

Online avromie7

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2730 on: June 10, 2020, 10:53:48 AM »
I haven't found data on day-by-day hospitalizations in Florida, but they do show total hospitalizations, and seem to update that daily, so one could write this down and create a chart going forward.   

This doesn't tell us how many people are hospitalized at a given time.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline biobook

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2731 on: June 10, 2020, 11:20:13 AM »
This doesn't tell us how many people are hospitalized at a given time.

True, it doesn't show "current hospitalizations". Is that what you're watching up north?  I was suggesting that one could determine "new hospitalizations" by watching this site every day going forward, and recording the daily numbers.

Offline S209

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2732 on: June 10, 2020, 11:28:24 AM »
The >65 year old groups had 23% of the diagnosed cases, 54% of the hospitalizations, and 84% of the deaths. I was surprised at the high number of hospitalizations in younger groups, but I don't know how that compares to elsewhere.
You’re not allowed to say that here or @avromie7 will say you’re being misleading ;)

The answer to your question how that compares to elsewhere is that younger people make up a far larger percentage of the hospitalizations than people here want to believe. Sorry, those are the facts.
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Online avromie7

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2733 on: June 10, 2020, 11:33:30 AM »
True, it doesn't show "current hospitalizations". Is that what you're watching up north?  I was suggesting that one could determine "new hospitalizations" by watching this site every day going forward, and recording the daily numbers.
I think current hospitalizations is the number we're really most worried about. New hospitalizations are also very important to keep us informed on where the number of current hospitalizations is heading.

Your method will take a few weeks before we get any useful data to find any trends.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline biobook

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2734 on: June 10, 2020, 11:37:50 AM »
You’re not allowed to say that here or @avromie7 will say you’re being misleading ;)

The answer to your question how that compares to elsewhere is that younger people make up a far larger percentage of the hospitalizations than people here want to believe. Sorry, those are the facts.
I only vaguely remember that thread, but IIRC, the disagreement was over the division of data by age group, with something like 40-64 year olds bundled together.  In the FL data, the age groups are ten year groupings, so for the state data, these are total hospitalizations by age, as of today. Numbers, with % of total in parentheses)

0-4         38  (0)
5-14       33  (0)
15-24    194  (2)
25-34    593  (5)
35-44    954  (9)
45-54  1424 (13)
55-64  1954  (17)
65-74  2250  (20)
75-84  2114  (19)
85+     1630  (15)



Offline S209

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2735 on: June 10, 2020, 11:45:38 AM »
I only vaguely remember that thread, but IIRC, the disagreement was over the division of data by age group, with something like 40-64 year olds bundled together.  In the FL data, the age groups are ten year groupings, so for the state data, these are total hospitalizations by age, as of today. Numbers, with % of total in parentheses)

0-4         38  (0)
5-14       33  (0)
15-24    194  (2)
25-34    593  (5)
35-44    954  (9)
45-54  1424 (13)
55-64  1954  (17)
65-74  2250  (20)
75-84  2114  (19)
85+     1630  (15)
Correct. So what you get is: 16% under 45 (!). Another 13% under 55. And another full 17% under 65. So much for it only being dangerous for the old..

There have been legitimate potential reasons brought up for how these numbers may not accurately reflect the danger level (perhaps younger people are less likely to quarantine as strictly) but the facts remain that the constantly parroted refrain that it only affects the old is simply untrue. Unless 45 is old.

For the one who mentioned that the young and “healthy” aren’t at risk, and it’s only those with significant comorbidites, here’s a counter argument- older people are FAR more likely to have comorbidities, so that should be baked into the numbers, and presumably just as young people with health conditions are more at risk so should they be more likely to quarantine like the old so that negates the other argument.

The difference between young and old is a gaping chasm regarding actual deaths, but not hospitalizations.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2736 on: June 10, 2020, 11:51:13 AM »
For the one who mentioned that the young and “healthy” aren’t at risk, and it’s only those with significant comorbidites, here’s a counter argument- older people are FAR more likely to have comorbidities, so that should be baked into the numbers, and presumably just as young people with health conditions are more at risk so should they be more likely to quarantine like the old so that negates the other argument.

The difference between young and old is a gaping chasm regarding actual deaths, but not hospitalizations.
It is baked into the numbers, you're forgetting there are less older age brackets and they include fewer people.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2737 on: June 10, 2020, 11:54:48 AM »
It is baked into the numbers, you're forgetting there are less older age brackets and they include fewer people.
I didn’t say there isn’t a far greater percentage from older people. Certainly they are far more at risk. But the claim that it’s not more dangerous to the young than most risks they face is just not true.
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Offline biobook

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2738 on: June 10, 2020, 12:18:43 PM »
Correct. So what you get is: 16% under 45 (!). Another 13% under 55. And another full 17% under 65. So much for it only being dangerous for the old..

The difference between young and old is a gaping chasm regarding actual deaths, but not hospitalizations.

Do you know how these numbers for 45-64 year olds compare to NY/NJ?  Perhaps hospitals in FL were more willing to accept less-severe cases than in NY/NJ where the caseload was higher, in which case the hospitalization numbers might not reflect severity of disease.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #2739 on: June 10, 2020, 12:26:51 PM »
Do you know how these numbers for 45-64 year olds compare to NY/NJ?  Perhaps hospitals in FL were more willing to accept less-severe cases than in NY/NJ where the caseload was higher, in which case the hospitalization numbers might not reflect severity of disease.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html
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