COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread

[biobook]

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html

Oh, right.  That groups ages as 18-49 years old and 50-64 years old, so can't simply compare to FL numbers.

[ckmk47]

Correct. So what you get is: 16% under 45 (!). Another 13% under 55. And another full 17% under 65. So much for it only being dangerous for the old..

There have been legitimate potential reasons brought up for how these numbers may not accurately reflect the danger level (perhaps younger people are less likely to quarantine as strictly) but the facts remain that the constantly parroted refrain that it only affects the old is simply untrue. Unless 45 is old.

For the one who mentioned that the young and “healthy” aren’t at risk, and it’s only those with significant comorbidites, here’s a counter argument- older people are FAR more likely to have comorbidities, so that should be baked into the numbers, and presumably just as young people with health conditions are more at risk so should they be more likely to quarantine like the old so that negates the other argument.

The difference between young and old is a gaping chasm regarding actual deaths, but not hospitalizations.

You’re not allowed to say that here or @avromie7 will say you’re being misleading

The answer to your question how that compares to elsewhere is that younger people make up a far larger percentage of the hospitalizations than people here want to believe. Sorry, those are the facts.

Hospitalization, but not deaths.  They're more likely to withstand the ravages of the disease.

The experience in Maimonides was that younger victims were likely to be obese and/or have high A1Cs. That's often not mentioned, so they're referred to as not having comorbidities.

[S209]

Hospitalization, but not deaths.  They're more likely to withstand the ravages of the disease.

The experience in Maimonides was that younger victims were likely to be obese and/or have high A1Cs. That's often not mentioned, so they're referred to as not having comorbidities.

That’s exactly what I said. And yes, obesity and diabetes are some of the comorbidities.

[Euclid]

Hospitalization, but not deaths.  They're more likely to withstand the ravages of the disease.

The experience in Maimonides was that younger victims were likely to be obese and/or have high A1Cs. That's often not mentioned, so they're referred to as not having comorbidities.

This is way more prevalent than you may assume amongst younger folks in our community.

[aygart]

"Murphy's Law"

https://www.app.com/story/news/local/communitychange/2020/06/12/gov-phil-murphy-says-nj-sue-asbury-park-over-indoor-dining/3176247001/

[Dan]

Next in line for interpretation by @biobook

https://m.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1270178612457598976
https://m.twitter.com/kevinpurcell/status/1270834406983217152
https://m.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1270835652662161409

[yesitsme]

https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/featured/1871931/today-in-flatbush-felder-eichenstein-yeger-call-on-children-to-protest-to-open-nyc-parks.html

[B.D.Da'ehu]

Maybe someone should make a poll on DDF asking whether you would feel comfortable going to a Trump rally now in a stadium with thousands (or tens of thousands) of people indoors. @CountValentine

https://apnews.com/7a1e6bedf3784ecdbc8c2373fdd4e97c?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=APHealthScience

[CountValentine]

Maybe someone should make a poll on DDF asking whether you would feel comfortable going to a Trump rally now in a stadium with thousands (or tens of thousands) of people indoors. @CountValentine

https://apnews.com/7a1e6bedf3784ecdbc8c2373fdd4e97c?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=APHealthScience

It is safe. That is why you need to sign a waiver saying you won't sue if you get covid-19.

[Proisrael]

Is the US death rate from Covid 10+%??

IF we look at the end game, either you got better or died, the numbers are 117,000 dead 840,00 recovered. that is a 1 in 8 death rate?!?

What am I missing?

[CountValentine]

Is the US death rate from Covid 10+%??

IF we look at the end game, either you got better or died, the numbers are 117,000 dead 840,00 recovered. that is a 1 in 8 death rate?!?

What am I missing?

Positive cases divided by deaths.
Currently around 5.5%

[Proisrael]

Positive cases divided by deaths.
Currently around 5.5%

But why are you looking at total cases and not by decided cases, meaning either death or recovery?

[avromie7]

But why are you looking at total cases and not by decided cases, meaning either death or recovery?

Recovery always lags deaths, that number is even less accurate. If you look at the closed cases graph here you can see how much it went down over time.

[moko]

It is safe. That is why you need to sign a waiver saying you won't sue if you get covid-19.

Safe is relative. You also sign a liability waiver at most amusement parks, skating rinks, ski slopes, etc. We live in a very litigious society.

[Mikes@Micro]

Is the US death rate from Covid 10+%??

IF we look at the end game, either you got better or died, the numbers are 117,000 dead 840,00 recovered. that is a 1 in 8 death rate?!?

What am I missing?

What percentage of sick people had tests?
I would venture to say that of those tested most were seriously ill....

[S209]

What percentage of sick people had tests?
I would venture to say that of those tested most were seriously ill....

So you’re saying over 2 million Americans have already been seriously ill with COVID? Wow, that’s a frightening thought.

[CountValentine]

Safe is relative. You also sign a liability waiver at most amusement parks, skating rinks, ski slopes, etc. We live in a very litigious society.

They are not required to mask. You going to pretend they are safe?

[Kobe Bryant]

Positive cases divided by deaths.
Currently around 5.5%

If anyone believes this is our fatality rate, they are delusional.

[biobook]

Next in line for interpretation by @biobook

https://m.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1270178612457598976
https://m.twitter.com/kevinpurcell/status/1270834406983217152
https://m.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1270835652662161409

@Dan, Finished my homework:


Recently, van Kerkhove of WHO said that asymptomatic people rarely transmit COVID-19 (though she rescinded that the next day ). Eric Topol tweets to remind us that this is not true.

He mentioned one paper (Nature Medicine,  April 15) that showed that an infected person can shed viral particles 2-3 days before they get sick. 

Kevin Purcell tweeted that we’re not sure if those viral particles are infectious, but Topol responded that another recent paper showed that in at least 17% of those with severe symptoms, viral particles are infectious, generally for 8 days, but could be as long as 15 or 20 days. 

Topol further referred to his own review of 16 studies done thus far on asymptomatic people.  The most informative was one from northern Italy where everyone in a small town was tested and found that 45% were asymptomatic, and remained asymptomatic 2 weeks later.  Finally, they did extensive contact tracing, and showed that at least some of these asymptomatic people were able to infect others.   

Others of the 16 studies confirmed this, finding 40% of a population being asymptomatic, and showing that at least some of these people can infect others.
 
In addition, they mentioned that seemingly asymptomatic people can actually have internal symptoms, such as lung damage discovered in several.  It’s not known how common or serious this might be.

Also unknown is just how often transmission occurs from the asymptomatic to the healthy.  Considering the large number of asymptomatics, it’s critical that we figure this out, and Topol tweets the need for contact tracing, to figure out where a patient might have been infected and who he might transmit the infection to and repeated testing to see how long the viral particles remain infectious.

All this can take time, and so in the immediate future, we should treat everyone as if they’re an asymptomatic carrier and can infect others.  The best way we know right now to decease the risk of infection is to wear masks. 

[Dan]

@Dan, Finished my homework:


Recently, van Kerkhove of WHO said that asymptomatic people rarely transmit COVID-19 (though she rescinded that the next day ). Eric Topol tweets to remind us that this is not true.

He mentioned one paper (Nature Medicine,  April 15) that showed that an infected person can shed viral particles 2-3 days before they get sick. 

Kevin Purcell tweeted that we’re not sure if those viral particles are infectious, but Topol responded that another recent paper showed that in at least 17% of those with severe symptoms, viral particles are infectious, generally for 8 days, but could be as long as 15 or 20 days. 

Topol further referred to his own review of 16 studies done thus far on asymptomatic people.  The most informative was one from northern Italy where everyone in a small town was tested and found that 45% were asymptomatic, and remained asymptomatic 2 weeks later.  Finally, they did extensive contact tracing, and showed that at least some of these asymptomatic people were able to infect others.   

Others of the 16 studies confirmed this, finding 40% of a population being asymptomatic, and showing that at least some of these people can infect others.
 
In addition, they mentioned that seemingly asymptomatic people can actually have internal symptoms, such as lung damage discovered in several.  It’s not known how common or serious this might be.

Also unknown is just how often transmission occurs from the asymptomatic to the healthy.  Considering the large number of asymptomatics, it’s critical that we figure this out, and Topol tweets the need for contact tracing, to figure out where a patient might have been infected and who he might transmit the infection to and repeated testing to see how long the viral particles remain infectious.

All this can take time, and so in the immediate future, we should treat everyone as if they’re an asymptomatic carrier and can infect others.  The best way we know right now to decease the risk of infection is to wear masks. 

Thanks!