COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread

[Lurker]

I agree we are still at the early stages of the pandemic and I think most of the winter will be spent in and out of lockdown. CMIIW FL nursing homes deaths aren't local mass spread events, so won't reach NY scale. Since primarily old people die they are bound to be nursing home residents.

I don't know what you would consider local mass spread events, but there are definitely some facilities that have much higher numbers of positive patients. So far there have been over 6500 confirmed positives from nursing homes, between patients and staff, with over 1500 official patient deaths attributed to Covid. Two important details to remember when looking at FL's numbers: they do not include presumed positive Covid deaths in their numbers, and all their old age home numbers are self reported from the facilities themselves. Both of those lead to a severe undercounting of the real numbers.


ETA: Cursory glance, I counted at least 28 facilities with over 50 confirmed cases.

[PlatinumGuy]

ETA: Cursory glance, I counted at least 28 facilities with over 50 confirmed cases.

That's bad and definitely evidence FL is grossly mismanaging this.

[yuneeq]

This is great. Did you find any good trackers for Hospitalization rates?

Tracker is only as good as the data provided. Some states like Florida (shocking!) are refusing to release useful hospitalization data.
Easier for me to read the news and find out which states are running out of beds.

[Lurker]

That's bad and definitely evidence FL is grossly mismanaging this.

To be clear, that includes staff. FL breaks down their long-term care facility numbers into 3 categories: Positive Residents, Positive Residents Transferred, and Positive Staff. There is most certainly a lot of ambiguity in the reporting.

I don't know that they are mismanaging it, because I don't know if there is a better way to handle it. But the reports of FL having this under control were never true, and the numbers we are given are showing it now. The most telling numbers will be a comparison of the year-over-year weekly morbidity rates, but I haven't been able to track them down. If anyone can find them, I'd be very appreciative.

[PlatinumGuy]

To be clear, that includes staff. FL breaks down their long-term care facility numbers into 3 categories: Positive Residents, Positive Residents Transferred, and Positive Staff. There is most certainly a lot of ambiguity in the reporting.

I don't know that they are mismanaging it, because I don't know if there is a better way to handle it. But the reports of FL having this under control were never true, and the numbers we are given are showing it now. The most telling numbers will be a comparison of the year-over-year weekly morbidity rates, but I haven't been able to track them down. If anyone can find them, I'd be very appreciative.

Every LTCF with a positive case should have testing done to the entire population & staff. If they aren't it is gross mismanagement.

[Lurker]

Tracker is only as good as the data provided. Some states like Florida (shocking!) are refusing to release useful hospitalization data.
Easier for me to read the news and find out which states are running out of beds.

Rebekah Jones made her own site after FL fired her. Great data, and tracks much closer to Johns Hopkins than FL's DOH site.

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/

Interesting to note that her site is almost the same as the DOH site, which lends credence to her claim that she actually built the DOH site and makes DeSantis' claim that she was a low level nobody fired for a 2017 sex scandal a little more dubious.

[Lurker]

Every LTCF with a positive case should have testing done to the entire population & staff. If they aren't it is gross mismanagement.

Each facility is left to their own devices. LTCF is a huge industry down here, and the government isn't looking to shake any branches. DeSantis' approach in general has been very hands off, let the people figure it out themselves.

[PlatinumGuy]

Interesting to note that her site is almost the same as the DOH site, which lends credence to her claim that she actually built the DOH site and makes DeSantis' claim that she was a low level nobody fired for a 2017 sex scandal a little more dubious.

But China is lying.

Each facility is left to their own devices. LTCF is a huge industry down here, and the government isn't looking to shake any branches. DeSantis' approach in general has been very hands off, let the people figure it out themselves.

Yeah that's gross mismanagement. Dying populations are also a huge problem for an industry wholly dependent on occupancy rates.

 In Ontario the military took over failing LTCF with high success. Canadian provinces are more independent than US States

[Lurker]

Dying populations are also a huge problem for an industry wholly dependent on occupancy rates.

But if you don't test them and can pretend the pandemic didn't touch you, then you can market yourself to the pissed off people of NY, NJ, MA, MI, IL, PA, and others and refill all your beds in a jiffy. FL's LTCF industry isn't going anywhere. Cuomo made sure of that.

[how]

People forget that the reason outbreaks in FL, TX, AZ, and CA are important is not just because of politics or containment strategy, but because they all contain huge population centers. Those 4 states have 5 of the top 10 populated metro areas in the country. These rising cases can be arguably be more devastating than the NY/NJ/CT spike.

But Death & Hospitilizations seem less severe. Anyone have numbers

[Ergel]

But Death & Hospitilizations seem less severe. Anyone have numbers which will be too early to be meaningful

FTFY

[Lurker]

But Death & Hospitilizations seem less severe. Anyone have numbers

Like @Ergel said, I don't think those numbers will tell you anything, for a number of reasons.

1) Timeline. What stage are you going to compare the numbers against? By all accounts, all of those states have been dealing with Covid hospitalizations and deaths since March, albeit on a much lower scale. NY's numbers skyrocketed immediately, versus the slower climb here.

2) Social distancing, masks, precautions in stores and public places, high-risk self-isolation. These are all factors which contribute to a slower spread, and slower consequences of hospitalization and deaths.

3a) Medical knowledge at a PCP level. When someone calls their PCP because they feel sick or had a positive test, PCPs are far less likely to send patients to the hospitals. Even on a layman's level, the average person is less likely to panic and run to the ER now than they were in March in NY.

3a) Medical knowledge with regard to treatment protocols. We're eons away from where we were 2-3 months ago, so the deaths should go down as a result. This is aside from the fact that deaths come at a later stage in the game.

4) Political reaction. If FL and TX keep doubling down on their stance to let things ride, you're going to see much crazier numbers than NY. NY/NJ reacted late, but at least they reacted before their numbers hit what we're seeing out of FL, TX, AZ, and CA. You can probably include the political reaction to protests in here, but it will be hard to gauge the impact of those.

There are other variables, as well, but this is what I'm pulling off the top of my head.

[Lurker]

FL announced 3700 new cases from yesterday. They've had 43k new cases in the last month, with DOH total numbers of just under 90k since March. IINM, 30k of those were in the last 2 weeks, with doubling seen every week or so. As of 2 days ago, on a state level, there are no plans to change any public policies (closings, masks, etc.). On a local level, officials are getting frustrated with the state response and starting to enforce their own restrictions.

[yuneeq]

But Death & Hospitilizations seem less severe. Anyone have numbers

Death is a lagging indicator. If you look at Florida's first peak in new cases and deaths, the peaks are 30 days apart. If you look at new cases 30 days ago, that's where the deaths are coming from today. Scary if you look at what might be coming...



Here's the death graph, which correlate with the new cases graph.



And here's the new cases that haven't been accounted for yet in the death rate - anything after the red line.

[Mootkim]

But you also need to account for better understanding and treatment methods now vs 71 days ago

[yuneeq]

But you also need to account for better understanding and treatment methods now vs 71 days ago

Absolutely. But I can’t tell you how much to knock off the trajectory. Is it 20-30%? Still not looking great.

[Afrages6]

Absolutely. But I can’t tell you how much to knock off the trajectory. Is it 20-30%? Still not looking great.

The average of infection in Florida is around 30. It makes a big difference

[S209]

But you also need to account for better understanding and treatment methods now vs 71 days ago

Correct. So the death rate may not be as extreme. That said, the number should still be exponentially higher..

[S209]

The average of infection in Florida is around 30. It makes a big difference

What was it in NY/NJ?

[Lurker]

The average of infection in Florida is around 30. It makes a big difference

I saw this, too, and I'm calling BS. For every 80 year old who tests positive, you'd need 10 teenagers to get to that average. We have a lot of 80 year olds...