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« Last edited by Joel on July 19, 2021, 01:49:19 AM »

Author Topic: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread  (Read 580098 times)

Offline cmey

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3460 on: October 07, 2020, 07:23:02 PM »
This is just another variation of the arguments you were making 3 weeks ago, when you said we should be comfortable with “0 deaths and 3 hospitalizations“, and then 2 weeks ago, when you said we should be comfortable with “a handful of hospitalizations and almost no deaths“. Because you have yet to see the spread/hospitalization/deaths fully play out does not mean they are not there and will not come. This is how it played out everywhere COVID spread. This argument is getting tired and rusty.
It’s a comment, not an argument about a course of action. Speaking of courses of action, a cousin in Passaic has been hunkered down and I mean really hunkered down all this time only sending her toddler to a morah with a small group and super strict protocols. The morah just tested positive and now her toddler isn’t feeling well. From what she’s telling me she’s hearing a lot of similar situations.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3461 on: October 07, 2020, 07:45:25 PM »
It’s a comment, not an argument about a course of action.
So what is your point? Obviously judging total deaths now vs total cases now doesn’t make sense, just as it didn’t make sense to judge total cases and then total hospitalizations when it was clear that there was no reason to believe the numbers wouldn’t change fast. What changed then and now? It’s the same comment, with different metrics because the former metrics have been rendered obsolete.

Speaking of courses of action, a cousin in Passaic has been hunkered down and I mean really hunkered down all this time only sending her toddler to a morah with a small group and super strict protocols. The morah just tested positive and now her toddler isn’t feeling well. From what she’s telling me she’s hearing a lot of similar situations.
Well then that shows that all of the data that shows there is a very strong and undeniable correlation between people who are exercising strict SD practices and lower rates of virus (everywhere in the world, and in the frum communities) goes out the window with your anecdote.

I’m not sure how to go over this again without sounding repetitive: when the virus becomes very prevalent in a community, you can catch it even if you’re very careful. That is why we need to work to keep the numbers low and not get to that level, because then even people who want and need to at least be minimally careful don’t have the option of living their lives at all without accepting a risk too great to stomach.

By the way, your anecdote is illuminating for the following reason: I’m loving how we’re not hearing the “No documented cases of a student catching it from a teacher!” argument being yelled anymore. Add that to the graveyard of failed excuses to do what we want, when we want, how we want, because we want to.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3462 on: October 08, 2020, 11:39:57 AM »
Reposting here:

Marc J. Sicklick, M.D., F.A.A.A.A.I., F.A.C.A.A.I.

Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology
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Telephone 516-569-5550
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www.marcsicklick.com

 

October 8, 2020

As the local numbers quickly and significantly go up, things are changing rapidly..   I would like to address a few points .

One basic premise that I stated a few months ago is that coronavirus infections typically tend to decrease in the mid-spring and to return in the early fall.  We cannot behave in the fall as we did in the summer if we expect to beat COVID without many casualties and deaths.

A second premise is that what I'm writing is not about the poitics of personal choice vs. government mandates.  My agenda is from a medical perspective.  It is to minimize damage to ourselves and our families while maximizing life as much as possible.  Our collective goal should be to be as safe as possible while keeping children in school, businesses and stores open, religious life functioning-  to keep life as close to normal as is possible.  If we don't do this on our own, it will be done through state government action and will be at times heavy handed and arbitrary. The State is not acting as a partner with local government. It has decided to be the overall supreme authority.

What are the common misconceptions that can really hurt people?

1) "I already had it.  I can't get it again."
This is wrong.  We don't know that and there are suspected second cases.  In addition, even IF you can't get it again in the short term, and 3 months MAY be a reasonable window, it is not a lifetime pass.  Furthermore, it's quite possible that you can carry and spread the disease even if you can't get sick.

2) "I have antibodies so I'm protected."
This, too, is wrong.  Antibodies are a nice epidemiologic tool to track the disease.  Antibodies mean that you have been exposed to the virus. They do not guarantee immunity and don't justify risk taking.

3) "It's over."
This is so wrong that hearing this said is incomprehensible to me. Look at all the numbers. They are rising. We are a hot spot.  We don't have herd immunity. It’s not over.  It’s not even stable. It’s getting worse. The good projections show us going from what was a handful of daily deaths in the State in the summer to triple digits daily deaths by late fall.

4) "I'm only seeing family so I'm being careful.  It's only my siblings, my married children, etc."
This, too, is wrong.  If they don't live in your house, they have a different world of risks and contacts.  Common DNA is not a source of  protection.

5) "I don't need to mask."
It doesn't help.  It isn't worth the discomfort.  It's my personal choice.  I've heard all the reasons.  While a non N95 does not (fully) protect me from you, you and I wear masks to protect you from me.  It is a communal obligation to be part of society and a collective obligation not to put anyone else at risk. This isn't about me taking a chance on MY health or life. It's about me taking a chane on YOUR life.

6) "If I'm in quarantine, I can take a test to see if I have COVID and if I'm negative, I can end my quarantine."
Wrong.  It can take up to 14 days to turn positive.  You cannot test yourself out of quarantine. A negative test early in the period does not rule out COVID.

7) "My grandchildren are coming in from out of state.  They look  healthy and I'm not quarantining them.  There’s no need."
Wrong. I don’t even understand this thought process. Do you think it’s okay to endanger your neighbors?   

8 ) "I'm taking a vacation in a quarantined state, but I'm flying into Philadelphia, or I'm driving all the way, so I don't need to quarantine."
Who’s to know and I feel fine . Really?  Does the 14 day medical period needed to develop COVID not apply to you? I get calls from people every day asking me to do something about their neighbors. We all have to make this behavior socially unacceptable.

What do I really think is going to happen?

The data point to a "U" shape graph of infections and deaths.  We were high in the spring, low in the summer, and are rising now.  The question is how high the right side of the "U" will be. We do have some control over this.

1) The virus will be in our lives for a long time.  It will change the way we live and interrelate and we will adapt. We will have a "normal" life, but it will be a new normal.

2) A vaccine will be released and have some efficacy.  It will either give some people transient immunity or weaken the disease in the immunized or do both.    When?  My guess is the spring.

3) Anti-vaxxers will oppose any vaccine, no matter how safe or effective, thereby decreasing the chances for herd immunity. Agendas always outweigh reality. (I'm not advocating for a risky or poorly protective vaccine. The risk:benefit ratio will have to be good.)

4) Some people will have side effects from the vaccine, but the overall risk will be lower than getting the disease.

5) Politicians will open and shut our lives based on their political agenda, not based on flattening the curve.

6) Some people will ignore common sense and put other people in jeopardy because they believe in the words of Louis XIV:  L'etat c'est mois. It's all about me.

7) Hospitalizations and deaths will increase through the fall, yet many people will say that it's insignificant until it strikes their families.

What must we do?
 
Neither herd immunity nor a vaccine is imminent.   So what should we do NOW to minimize illness and disability and death?

1) Wear masks.

2) Social distance.

3) Avoid crowds.  This includes religious services, weddings, other celebratory parties, etc. 

4) Stay home if you're sick, even if you think it's not COVID.

5) Stay home if you've been exposed.  You can't go out wearing a mask if you're in quarantine.

6) Unless you have a real medical contraindication, get a flu shot.  Remember that those over 65 need a stronger vaccine.  These seem to be in short supply so now is the time to get it.


It's not about not being caught.  It's about doing the right thing.

Most of all, use common sense. If it looks risky, it probably is.

The goal is to come out the other side as good as we went. It is to maintain health until there is a vaccine or a treatment. It is to buy time until we are safe.

For most of us it is an obtainable goal with a little inconvenience.

Sincerely yours,

Marc J. Sicklick, M.D.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3464 on: October 09, 2020, 11:31:17 AM »
https://www.foxnews.com/health/overweight-potential-coronavirus-risk-factor-cdc

At what point do we just sell the CDC to whatever tabloid will have them?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3465 on: October 09, 2020, 12:13:50 PM »
White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow announces President Trump has approved of a Coronavirus relief package.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3466 on: October 09, 2020, 12:32:13 PM »
White House Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow announces President Trump has approved of a Coronavirus relief package.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/09/trump-raises-coronavirus-stimulus-offer-to-1point8-trillion-sources-say.html

Quote
On Friday afternoon, Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow said the president had approved a “revised” package ahead of another planned discussion between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. In a tweet, Trump urged negotiators to “Go Big!”

Congress still faces several hurdles to crafting pandemic relief legislation and passing it. Even if the White House and Democrats can reach an accord on how much money to inject into a reeling health-care system and economy, they have to craft a bill that can get through the Republican-held Senate.

Earlier Friday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said another stimulus package is “unlikely in the next three weeks.”
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3467 on: October 09, 2020, 12:33:55 PM »
Sounds like POTUS zigzagged big time.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3468 on: October 09, 2020, 01:21:41 PM »
Sounds like POTUS zigzagged big time.

It’s a negotiating tactic: “Look, I can put a stop to this at any point”, followed by “but here I am being nice and giving you more than you were offered previously, it’s the best you’ll get, take it”. Not saying it’s a good tactic or that it’ll work.

If the White House and Dems agree, what kinds of things going to stop Senate republicans from approving it as well?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3469 on: October 09, 2020, 02:57:11 PM »
It’s a negotiating tactic: “Look, I can put a stop to this at any point”, followed by “but here I am being nice and giving you more than you were offered previously, it’s the best you’ll get, take it”. Not saying it’s a good tactic or that it’ll work.

If the White House and Dems agree, what kinds of things going to stop Senate republicans from approving it as well?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3471 on: October 12, 2020, 10:37:06 AM »
A colleague of mine developed COVID symptoms about 12 days ago and is feeling much better, but is still coughing and wants to go back to work. I know the CDC says 10 days after symptoms they are good, but the coughing concerns me. Is it consensus that he’s definitely not contagious?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3472 on: October 12, 2020, 11:29:48 AM »
A colleague of mine developed COVID symptoms about 12 days ago and is feeling much better, but is still coughing and wants to go back to work. I know the CDC says 10 days after symptoms they are good, but the coughing concerns me. Is it consensus that he’s definitely not contagious?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3473 on: October 12, 2020, 12:35:59 PM »
A colleague of mine developed COVID symptoms about 12 days ago and is feeling much better, but is still coughing and wants to go back to work. I know the CDC says 10 days after symptoms they are good, but the coughing concerns me. Is it consensus that he’s definitely not contagious?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3474 on: October 12, 2020, 12:45:55 PM »
Just came across this article. Any thoughts?

Didn't really read through it, but 2 quick thoughts:
1) WHO made a guesstimate to account for all the areas which have little-to-no testing and places which don't keep great medical records. This article is quick to jump on that figure and abandon the officially confirmed Covid count, but then uses the officially confirmed Covid deaths (which is known to be uncounted even in first world countries) in order to get to their ridiculously low IFR. That's some funny math.
2) As has been stated numerous times, look around you. How many people do you know that have died from the flu over the last 20 years? You know more people who have died from Covid in the last 6 months.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3475 on: October 12, 2020, 12:55:08 PM »
Didn't really read through it, but 2 quick thoughts:
1) WHO made a guesstimate to account for all the areas which have little-to-no testing and places which don't keep great medical records. This article is quick to jump on that figure and abandon the officially confirmed Covid count, but then uses the officially confirmed Covid deaths (which is known to be uncounted even in first world countries) in order to get to their ridiculously low IFR. That's some funny math.
2) As has been stated numerous times, look around you. How many people do you know that have died from the flu over the last 20 years? You know more people who have died from Covid in the last 6 months.
There is evidence of possible undercounting in March and April, is that still true for more recent months? There is reason to believe the deaths are currently being over counted thanks to the financial incentives.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3476 on: October 12, 2020, 12:55:59 PM »
There is evidence of possible undercounting in March and April, is that still true for more recent months? There is reason to believe the deaths are currently being over counted thanks to the financial incentives.

Excess deaths says it's been undercounted.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3477 on: October 12, 2020, 12:56:57 PM »
Excess deaths says it's been undercounted.
I haven't seen any recent data on excess deaths, have you?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3478 on: October 12, 2020, 01:02:25 PM »
I haven't seen any recent data on excess deaths, have you?

I haven't delved into the numbers since August, but you can try to get a picture from here: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3479 on: October 12, 2020, 01:17:24 PM »
I haven't delved into the numbers since August, but you can try to get a picture from here: https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
I'm having trouble figuring much out from there.

While in the beginning of the pandemic the excess deaths can be blamed on COVID and deaths caused by the (fear of) system overload. For example Yosef Neumann was in the hospital from the Chanukah attack until March when he suddenly died as soon as hospitals changed to COVID mode. I find it hard to believe it was a coincidence and I'm sure there are many many others which we're unaware of. Once the initial wave passed, I think it's much more likely that any excess deaths were caused by lockdown, including delayed treatment and screening as well as more directly like suicide, although I'm not sure there has been enough of an increase to really affect the numbers. At this point I think it's more likely there's an over count, not under count.
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