COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread

[Lurker]

I'm having trouble figuring much out from there.

While in the beginning of the pandemic the excess deaths can be blamed on COVID and deaths caused by the (fear of) system overload. For example Yosef Neumann was in the hospital from the Chanukah attack until March when he suddenly died as soon as hospitals changed to COVID mode. I find it hard to believe it was a coincidence and I'm sure there are many many others which we're unaware of. Once the initial wave passed, I think it's much more likely that any excess deaths were caused by lockdown, including delayed treatment and screening as well as more directly like suicide, although I'm not sure there has been enough of an increase to really affect the numbers. At this point I think it's more likely there's an over count, not under count.

Yea... and you're basing this off of what, exactly? A gut feeling? Do you have any data to back this up?

[avromie7]

Yea... and you're basing this off of what, exactly? A gut feeling? Do you have any data to back this up?

The financial incentive should be enough to assume an over count.

[yuneeq]

I haven't seen any recent data on excess deaths, have you?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html#

https://www.bu.edu/articles/2020/analysis-finds-true-pandemic-death-toll-is-much-higher-than-200000-in-us/

[aygart]

The financial incentive should be enough to assume an over count.

That ALL access deaths are from the lockdown? Really?

[Lurker]

The financial incentive should be enough to assume an over count.

Show me documentation of the financial incentives you keep talking about.

[avromie7]

That ALL access deaths are from the lockdown? Really?

July-Current, definitely not March-April.

Show me documentation of the financial incentives you keep talking about.

I found this from a quick google search.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html#

Some interesting observations on how the data changed over the past few months. Anyone who wants is welcome to do more research.

When comparing the current version to the 6/30 version on archive.org, I noticed that the gap actually went down in NYC, NJ, and MA. MA actually has a negative gap now. Most of this can be explained by either a delay in reporting COVID deaths or the hypothesis that many of the deaths were people who would have otherwise died in the near term.

The data for PA was not on the 6/30 version, but I found it on the 7/29 version. The number of excess deaths in PA actually went down between the 7/29 version and the current version.

I didn't do any exhaustive research, I picked those dates at random. If it looks like I'm cherry picking dates, it's purely coincidental.

[yuneeq]

The financial incentive should be enough to assume an over count.

How does a financial incentive add more bottom line deaths from all causes?
Are you implying ~275k people were murdered this year so the hospitals can collect more money?

[Lurker]

I found this from a quick google search.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/

The article is from April. It is far from an in-depth analysis on medical billing. It compares regular pneumonia vs Covid, and shows a much bigger payout if a Covid patient is ventilated. How often a patient with pneumonia is ventilated isn't brought up, nor does it take into account that pneumonia is usually a secondary diagnosis and/or cause of death, which also changes the billing equation. The people interviewed or quoted in the article all say that they don't believe there is gross misuse of diagnoses because of this. For the most part, the treatment protocols are so different now, most of the article is irrelevant. In any event, it definitely doesn't spell out how deaths being certified as Covid land anyone more money.

[avromie7]

How does a financial incentive add more bottom line deaths from all causes?
Are you implying ~275k people were murdered this year so the hospitals can collect more money?

No, I'm implying that the number of deaths from COVID in the past few months may really be lower than reported.

[avromie7]

The article is from April. It is far from an in-depth analysis on medical billing. It compares regular pneumonia vs Covid, and shows a much bigger payout if a Covid patient is ventilated. How often a patient with pneumonia is ventilated isn't brought up, nor does it take into account that pneumonia is usually a secondary diagnosis and/or cause of death, which also changes the billing equation. The people interviewed or quoted in the article all say that they don't believe there is gross misuse of diagnoses because of this. For the most part, the treatment protocols are so different now, most of the article is irrelevant. In any event, it definitely doesn't spell out how deaths being certified as Covid land anyone more money.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/22/politifact-on-hospitals-and-the-possible-financial-incentive-of-covid-19-patients/

Medicare pays for inpatient hospital stays using a diagnosis-related group (DRG) payment system. The hospital assigns a code to a patient at the time of discharge, based mainly on the patient’s main diagnosis and treatment given.

Presumably, this would also include time of death. The increased payment would be based on assigning COVID as the main diagnosis at the time of death.

[yuneeq]

No, I'm implying that the number of deaths from COVID in the past few months may really be lower than reported.

I don't see how you can come to such a conclusion when there's over 100k excess deaths of all types in the last 3 months of the NYT chart (through Sep 5th), compared to 75k reported deaths from COVID in the same timespan.

[Ergel]

I don't see how you can come to such a conclusion when there's over 100k excess deaths of all types in the last 3 months of the NYT chart (through Sep 5th), compared to 75k reported deaths from COVID in the same timespan.

Don't you know, lockdowns (which don't exist in America in the last 3 months) kill?

[avromie7]

I don't see how you can come to such a conclusion when there's over 100k excess deaths of all types in the last 3 months of the NYT chart (through Sep 5th), compared to 75k reported deaths from COVID in the same timespan.

I'm having trouble figuring much out from there.

While in the beginning of the pandemic the excess deaths can be blamed on COVID and deaths caused by the (fear of) system overload. For example Yosef Neumann was in the hospital from the Chanukah attack until March when he suddenly died as soon as hospitals changed to COVID mode. I find it hard to believe it was a coincidence and I'm sure there are many many others which we're unaware of. Once the initial wave passed, I think it's much more likely that any excess deaths were caused by lockdown, including delayed treatment and screening as well as more directly like suicide, although I'm not sure there has been enough of an increase to really affect the numbers. At this point I think it's more likely there's an over count, not under count.

Although it's hard to really work with the numbers as they stand now because there must be a delay in reporting as I showed here

Some interesting observations on how the data changed over the past few months. Anyone who wants is welcome to do more research.

When comparing the current version to the 6/30 version on archive.org, I noticed that the gap actually went down in NYC, NJ, and MA. MA actually has a negative gap now. Most of this can be explained by either a delay in reporting COVID deaths or the hypothesis that many of the deaths were people who would have otherwise died in the near term.

The data for PA was not on the 6/30 version, but I found it on the 7/29 version. The number of excess deaths in PA actually went down between the 7/29 version and the current version.

I didn't do any exhaustive research, I picked those dates at random. If it looks like I'm cherry picking dates, it's purely coincidental.

I think it's safe to assume that the gap will start going down when the the deaths slow down and it has time to catch up.

[avromie7]

Don't you know, lockdowns (which don't exist in America in the last 3 months) kill?

How long does it take for someone to die because of delayed treatment or a delayed diagnosis?

[Lurker]

FL didn't have lockdowns. There were some local restrictions on certain business types, but they were the exception, not the norm. They still managed to record 14k+ Covid deaths, with an excess death count of over 20k (both of those numbers as of 3 weeks ago). They've also been notoriously late in recording and announcing deaths. The undercount of roughly 33% is in line with US estimates of 36%. The US also has a better recording system than most of the world, so I don't know why anyone would think that the official worldwide Covid deaths are less than reported, unless they have data I haven't seen.

[zh cohen]

FL didn't have lockdowns.

They didn't cancel/delay non-essential procedures? They didn't close schools?

[Lurker]

They didn't cancel/delay non-essential procedures? They didn't close schools?

Schools were closed early on, but opened in August. Some even opened for summer school. To my knowledge, procedures were minor impacted, depending on when it was scheduled for and in which hospital system. @YankyDoodle has better info than I do there. I know the Cleveland Clinic system has pretty much been full-go since May. Keep in mind, FL only recorded ~4.5k Covid deaths before July 16. They've recorded 11k since then. (ETA: FL did have a shutdown of sorts for a month in April. It was not as severe as NY/NJ.)

[Lurker]

https://www.foxnews.com/health/byu-idaho-students-contracting-coronavirus-donate-plasma-cash

[yuneeq]

Back to the drunk driving analogy:

Man Who Called COVID a ‘Hoax’ Feels Guilty After He and 13 Family Members Test Positive — and 2 Die
https://people.com/health/man-called-covid-hoax-feels-guilty-14-family-members-test-positive-2-die/

"The feeling that I have is kind of like what, I would say, a drunk driver would have if they killed their family," Green said. "It was unintentional. This was my home. This is where it happened. So, you know there is a sense of responsibility."

[SSLPhD]

Back to the drunk driving analogy:

Man Who Called COVID a ‘Hoax’ Feels Guilty After He and 13 Family Members Test Positive — and 2 Die
https://people.com/health/man-called-covid-hoax-feels-guilty-14-family-members-test-positive-2-die/

"The feeling that I have is kind of like what, I would say, a drunk driver would have if they killed their family," Green said. "It was unintentional. This was my home. This is where it happened. So, you know there is a sense of responsibility."

Analogy doesn't hold up.  If he was driving with his FIL in the car, that wouldn't have killed his FIL's mother.