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« Last edited by Joel on July 19, 2021, 01:49:19 AM »

Author Topic: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread  (Read 580392 times)

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3920 on: February 03, 2021, 04:06:39 PM »
Well...this is interesting
Quote
Population health did not decline and indeed generally improved during the 4 years of the Great Depression, 1930–1933, with mortality decreasing for almost all ages, and life expectancy increasing by several years in males, females, whites, and nonwhites. For most age groups, mortality tended to peak during years of strong economic expansion (such as 1923, 1926, 1929, and 1936–1937). In contrast, the recessions of 1921, 1930–1933, and 1938 coincided with declines in mortality and gains in life expectancy. The only exception was suicide mortality which increased during the Great Depression, but accounted for less than 2% of deaths
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״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3924 on: February 04, 2021, 02:47:08 AM »
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1357076361752567809?s=20

Obviously a plot devised by Ds.  Convince Rs that Covid is nothing to worry about, it's just the flu.  Spread misinformation about the vaccination.  Result?  Fewer Rs vaccinate, more Rs get Covid, more Rs die of Covid, fewer living R voters... Red states turn blue.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3925 on: February 04, 2021, 02:51:46 AM »
Eye-opening animations of how numbers of Covid cases and deaths changed since June.  In June, highest counts were in a mix of red and blue states, while over a few months (of no mask wearing?) the states with the highest counts are all red.
https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/total-cases-since-june

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3926 on: February 04, 2021, 07:42:47 AM »
Eye-opening animations of how numbers of Covid cases and deaths changed since June.  In June, highest counts were in a mix of red and blue states, while over a few months (of no mask wearing?) the states with the highest counts are all red.
https://dangoodspeed.com/covid/total-cases-since-june

The fact that NY is near the top of fewest deaths shows that a lot more context is needed and cherry picked data doesn’t give you the whole picture.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3927 on: February 04, 2021, 07:55:49 AM »
The fact that NY is near the top of fewest deaths shows that a lot more context is needed and cherry picked data doesn’t give you the whole picture.
+ a million. Why not do total cases since the beginning of the pandemic (hint, it won't give him the data he is looking for)
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3928 on: February 04, 2021, 08:26:02 AM »
+ a million. Why not do total cases since the beginning of the pandemic (hint, it won't give him the data he is looking for)

More so, despite the cherry picked timeline perfectly aligning with Florida’s first wave, they are near the bottom of deaths. And if the implication is that red states are less safe because restrictions lead to fewer deaths, Florida should be a glaring example that this assumption is false.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3929 on: February 04, 2021, 10:26:47 AM »
+ a million. Why not do total cases since the beginning of the pandemic (hint, it won't give him the data he is looking for)
First of all, though it's not nearly as compelling when looking at cumulative since the beginning, the trend is definitely still there. And obviously there's cherry picking going on here, but the reason not to start from the beginning is not completely without merit. The states that were hit hardest early on had the least opportunity to do anything about it, while the states that were okay in the beginning and hard hit later in the year had much more to go off of in combatting the virus. I think the red/blue angle is still pretty silly and not as supported by the data as they're making it out to be, but it seems likely that a closer analysis of different responses in different states will in fact show what worked well and what didn't.
More so, despite the cherry picked timeline perfectly aligning with Florida’s first wave, they are near the bottom of deaths. And if the implication is that red states are less safe because restrictions lead to fewer deaths, Florida should be a glaring example that this assumption is false.
Florida is actually smack in the middle for deaths per capita going back to the beginning of the pandemic, so in fact the cherry picking you're referring to has the opposite effect that you're accusing them of.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3930 on: February 04, 2021, 11:58:21 AM »
More so, despite the cherry picked timeline perfectly aligning with Florida’s first wave, they are near the bottom of deaths. And if the implication is that red states are less safe because restrictions lead to fewer deaths, Florida should be a glaring example that this assumption is false.
Weather helps a lot.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3931 on: February 04, 2021, 12:26:29 PM »
First of all, though it's not nearly as compelling when looking at cumulative since the beginning, the trend is definitely still there. And obviously there's cherry picking going on here, but the reason not to start from the beginning is not completely without merit. The states that were hit hardest early on had the least opportunity to do anything about it, while the states that were okay in the beginning and hard hit later in the year had much more to go off of in combatting the virus. I think the red/blue angle is still pretty silly and not as supported by the data as they're making it out to be, but it seems likely that a closer analysis of different responses in different states will in fact show what worked well and what didn't.Florida is actually smack in the middle for deaths per capita going back to the beginning of the pandemic, so in fact the cherry picking you're referring to has the opposite effect that you're accusing them of.
The fact that so many people got it early on can be play a big part in how many people got it in the later months.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3932 on: February 04, 2021, 12:58:23 PM »
The fact that so many people got it early on can be play a big part in how many people got it in the later months.
Certainly a consideration, and part of why I said the data doesn't quite support what they're trying to do with it. Although it's also not clear how much that plays a role until you get closer to herd immunity levels. Even the 'worst' state (ND) has only hit something like  13% infected based on the data.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3933 on: February 04, 2021, 01:16:06 PM »
Certainly a consideration, and part of why I said the data doesn't quite support what they're trying to do with it. Although it's also not clear how much that plays a role until you get closer to herd immunity levels. Even the 'worst' state (ND) has only hit something like  13% infected based on the data.

It's ironic considering how low their population density is compared to the coastal states. False sense of security (and less precautions) perhaps?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3934 on: February 04, 2021, 01:58:26 PM »
Certainly a consideration, and part of why I said the data doesn't quite support what they're trying to do with it. Although it's also not clear how much that plays a role until you get closer to herd immunity levels. Even the 'worst' state (ND) has only hit something like  13% infected based on the data.
I have a theory that there are certain people who are more likely to get it, my guess is a combination of genetics and increased contact with the general public.

My belief that something is going on is strengthened when I hear about people who were super careful getting it as soon as they let their guard down slightly while other people have been living life like normal for the past 8 months but somehow haven't got it. (I'm not saying they're immune or can't get it, just less likely)

Assuming this theory holds any water, it would make sense that after the first wave it's much more difficult for another wave to gain traction.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3935 on: February 04, 2021, 02:13:42 PM »
I have a theory that there are certain people who are more likely to get it, my guess is a combination of genetics and increased contact with the general public.

My belief that something is going on is strengthened when I hear about people who were super careful getting it as soon as they let their guard down slightly while other people have been living life like normal for the past 8 months but somehow haven't got it. (I'm not saying they're immune or can't get it, just less likely)

Assuming this theory holds any water, it would make sense that after the first wave it's much more difficult for another wave to gain traction.

This isn't a theory, both your assertions are logical conclusions. But it doesn't say anything about difficulty for a second wave to gain traction if only a fraction of those more likely got it the first time around.

Additionally, likelihood/risk factors are a sliding scale, not binary, just because a few individuals defied the odds doesn't mean that everyone else who didn't get COVID is the same as those few.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3936 on: February 04, 2021, 02:35:47 PM »
This isn't a theory, both your assertions are logical conclusions. But it doesn't say anything about difficulty for a second wave to gain traction if only a fraction of those more likely got it the first time around.

Additionally, likelihood/risk factors are a sliding scale, not binary, just because a few individuals defied the odds doesn't mean that everyone else who didn't get COVID is the same as those few.
By the time a second wave started, the number of people who were infected may very well have been close to 20% of the population in NYC. Assuming it skews heavily toward people most likely to be infected, that should slow the spread significantly.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3937 on: February 04, 2021, 02:48:02 PM »
genetics
I agree with the increased contact part, but where have you seen genetics playing a role in likelihood of susceptibility to infection?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3938 on: February 04, 2021, 02:52:02 PM »
Please explain number 4



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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #3939 on: February 04, 2021, 02:53:58 PM »
Please explain number 4


What is the question?
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