COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread

[aygart]

Without a baseline, this is meaningless.

Why? You can see the change since last spring.

[avromie7]

Why? You can see the change since last spring.

I understood it to be showing 45-50% are still staying home, but we don't know what percentage of people would stay home in a normal week pre-covid.

[Lurker]

Just some random thoughts:

• New daily cases haven't been this low since Nov 8 and are steadily dropping, as expected. Hospitalizations are also down almost 40% from the peak on Jan 8, so hopefully we'll see a drop in death counts starting within the next week or 2. The cases never fully disappear between waves, but I think it's safe to say that the worst of the second wave is over.
• Historically, first waves of pandemics hit with a decent size bump, then the second waves hit like a tsunami, followed by a small third wave (smaller than the first). My personal opinion is that the third wave this time will be closer to the second wave, as opposed to the hiccup it has historically been. Never before have variants been able to travel intercontinentally like they do today. Already, the UK variant is doubling every 10 days in the US. It is estimated to be 35-40% more contagious than the strains we've seen here until now. It is also possible that treatment protocols may need to be tweaked to deal with the variants, as evidenced by South Africa suspending use of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine after finding it to be almost ineffective against their current strain.
• I'm curious to see the impact of an unprecedented third wave on the economy and the markets. The third wave looks to be timed to start after this $1.9T package is passed. Additionally, the US's vaccine rollout has been dismal at best, and there will be legitimate questions about the efficacy of the current vaccines and treatments against the newer strains. While the markets rebounded during the first wave and stayed strong during the second wave based on confidence in treatments/vaccines and in the stimulus infusion, there may be less confidence in those things this time around. Volatile markets probably won't help things, especially with Joe the Plumber's money tied up in GME and Dogecoin. I think the third wave may be the pin that pops the bubble.

[AsherO]

Just some random thoughts:

• New daily cases haven't been this low since Nov 8 and are steadily dropping, as expected. Hospitalizations are also down almost 40% from the peak on Jan 8, so hopefully we'll see a drop in death counts starting within the next week or 2. The cases never fully disappear between waves, but I think it's safe to say that the worst of the second wave is over.
• Historically, first waves of pandemics hit with a decent size bump, then the second waves hit like a tsunami, followed by a small third wave (smaller than the first). My personal opinion is that the third wave this time will be closer to the second wave, as opposed to the hiccup it has historically been. Never before have variants been able to travel intercontinentally like they do today. Already, the UK variant is doubling every 10 days in the US. It is estimated to be 35-40% more contagious than the strains we've seen here until now. It is also possible that treatment protocols may need to be tweaked to deal with the variants, as evidenced by South Africa suspending use of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine after finding it to be almost ineffective against their current strain.
• I'm curious to see the impact of an unprecedented third wave on the economy and the markets. The third wave looks to be timed to start after this $1.9T package is passed. Additionally, the US's vaccine rollout has been dismal at best, and there will be legitimate questions about the efficacy of the current vaccines and treatments against the newer strains. While the markets rebounded during the first wave and stayed strong during the second wave based on confidence in treatments/vaccines and in the stimulus infusion, there may be less confidence in those things this time around. Volatile markets probably won't help things, especially with Joe the Plumber's money tied up in GME and Dogecoin. I think the third wave may be the pin that pops the bubble.

Personally I think SA is shortsighted in halting their vaccine program because their local strain is "minimally effective against mild illness". If the vaccine is indeed significantly effective in preventing severe illness and death (which I think has already been proven/observed), then why not use such a vaccine?

Do we have any evidence/observation/research that current treatment protocols are less effective against newer variants?  Which treatments? Even if we have aggregate numbers that tell us a variant is more deadly, that might be due to something other than treatment protocols.

[Lurker]

Personally I think SA is shortsighted in halting their vaccine program because their local strain is "minimally effective against mild illness". If the vaccine is indeed significantly effective in preventing severe illness and death (which I think has already been proven/observed), then why not use such a vaccine?

I don't disagree with you. But to play devil's advocate, the purpose of a vaccine is arguably to eradicate the illness and stop the pandemic. Given the long-term effects which seem to come with Covid, even milder cases, anything that doesn't prevent the illness altogether isn't really a win.

Do we have any evidence/observation/research that current treatment protocols are less effective against newer variants?  Which treatments? Even if we have aggregate numbers that tell us a variant is more deadly, that might be due to something other than treatment protocols.

Treatment protocol doesn't just mean a cocktail of drugs. It can mean laying in bed and drinking soup. I don't have any studies to back this up, but based on news reports and anecdotal Lakewood/Israel stories, it seems to me that doing nothing worked a lot better before the variants showed up.

[avromie7]

Just some random thoughts:

• New daily cases haven't been this low since Nov 8 and are steadily dropping, as expected. Hospitalizations are also down almost 40% from the peak on Jan 8, so hopefully we'll see a drop in death counts starting within the next week or 2. The cases never fully disappear between waves, but I think it's safe to say that the worst of the second wave is over.
• Historically, first waves of pandemics hit with a decent size bump, then the second waves hit like a tsunami, followed by a small third wave (smaller than the first). My personal opinion is that the third wave this time will be closer to the second wave, as opposed to the hiccup it has historically been. Never before have variants been able to travel intercontinentally like they do today. Already, the UK variant is doubling every 10 days in the US. It is estimated to be 35-40% more contagious than the strains we've seen here until now. It is also possible that treatment protocols may need to be tweaked to deal with the variants, as evidenced by South Africa suspending use of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine after finding it to be almost ineffective against their current strain.
• I'm curious to see the impact of an unprecedented third wave on the economy and the markets. The third wave looks to be timed to start after this $1.9T package is passed. Additionally, the US's vaccine rollout has been dismal at best, and there will be legitimate questions about the efficacy of the current vaccines and treatments against the newer strains. While the markets rebounded during the first wave and stayed strong during the second wave based on confidence in treatments/vaccines and in the stimulus infusion, there may be less confidence in those things this time around. Volatile markets probably won't help things, especially with Joe the Plumber's money tied up in GME and Dogecoin. I think the third wave may be the pin that pops the bubble.

While everyone loves to hate on the US vaccine distribution, it's actually doing quite well. Other than a few nation states, the only country to distribute more vaccines per capita is the UK.

With nearly 10% of the US population having received at least 1 dose, we should have about 10% of the US population immune (besides for those who already caught the virus) in about a month from now.

Additionally, the rate of distribution is steadily rising, it more than tripled in the past month.

[AsherO]

I don't disagree with you. But to play devil's advocate, the purpose of a vaccine is arguably to eradicate the illness and stop the pandemic. Given the long-term effects which seem to come with Covid, even milder cases, anything that doesn't prevent the illness altogether isn't really a win.

That's a poor argument:
1.  If COVID wasn't so deadly and 99% of those who have died would have survived, it wouldn't cripple the entire planet
2. The long term COVID effects correlate to severity of illness (no data, just anecdotally)

Treatment protocol doesn't just mean a cocktail of drugs. It can mean laying in bed and drinking soup. I don't have any studies to back this up, but based on news reports and anecdotal Lakewood/Israel stories, it seems to me that doing nothing worked a lot better before the variants showed up.

If you're calling chicken soup a treatment regiment that's become less effective, then switch up the recipe for a better one

[AsherO]

Other than a few nation states, the only country to distribute more vaccines per capita is the UK.

Not sure how this is a win. "Other than a few nation states", the rest of the world's vaccine programs are moving way too slowly.

With nearly 10% of the US population having received at least 1 dose, we should have about 10% of the US population immune (besides for those who already caught the virus) in about a month from now.

If 10% takes three months, then herd immunity will take ~2 years (not factoring variants). Our only hope here is approval of other vaccines and/or ramp-up.

[Lurker]

While everyone loves to hate on the US vaccine distribution, it's actually doing quite well. Other than a few nation states, the only country to distribute more vaccines per capita is the UK.

With nearly 10% of the US population having received at least 1 dose, we should have about 10% of the US population immune (besides for those who already caught the virus) in about a month from now.

Additionally, the rate of distribution is steadily rising, it more than tripled in the past month.

All good and well, except we vaccinated the wrong 10%. Most of them would be categorized as the least likely to spread the virus. While it may help with the death toll in the short term, the number of positive cases will still be high during the third wave because the most mobile among us are still unvaccinated. Regarding those who have already caught the virus, see the posts about reinfection.

The rate of distribution needs to rise much higher and much quicker in order for it to be really effective against a potential third wave. IMO, we need to cut the second dose and hit as many people as possible with a single dose in the short term.

[Lurker]

That's a poor argument:
1.  If COVID wasn't so deadly and 99% of those who have died would have survived, it wouldn't cripple the entire planet
2. The long term COVID effects correlate to severity of illness (no data, just anecdotally)

If you're calling chicken soup a treatment regiment that's become less effective, then switch up the recipe for a better one

Actually, IIRC the data showed that people with mild cases were more prone to longer-term effects.

Treatment regimen is about how an illness is dealt with. It could involve rest and Tylenol, or it could be harder drugs and even hospitalization. If fewer people are getting better with rest and Tylenol, then the protocol is changing.

[AsherO]

Actually, IIRC the data showed that people with mild cases were more prone to longer-term effects.

Treatment regimen is about how an illness is dealt with. It could involve rest and Tylenol, or it could be harder drugs and even hospitalization. If fewer people are getting better with rest and Tylenol, then the protocol is changing.

The protocol is evolving in any case. Many of the treatments being used to treat COVID only have an EUA/exploratory approval based on early indication that they are effective. As data comes in, protocols are being improved.

[avromie7]

Not sure how this is a win. "Other than a few nation states", the rest of the world's vaccine programs are moving way too slowly.

You need to keep everything in perspective, of course the US can do better, but the fact that they're leading the pack says a lot.

If 10% takes three months, then herd immunity will take ~2 years (not factoring variants). Our only hope here is approval of other vaccines and/or ramp-up.

The US administers more vaccines in a week than the total amount distributed a month ago, we're at way better than 10% in 3 months. At the current rate (which is still increasing), 100% of the US population will be vaccinated by next March.

[AsherO]

All good and well, except we vaccinated the wrong 10%. Most of them would be categorized as the least likely to spread the virus. While it may help with the death toll in the short term, the number of positive cases will still be high during the third wave because the most mobile among us are still unvaccinated. Regarding those who have already caught the virus, see the posts about reinfection.

It's a tricky question, whether to first vaccinate the spreaders, or to first vaccinate the most vulnerable. It was discussed on DDF soon after you took your hiatus. I shared the following article that explores this question:

There was an article in Wired (I read it in the print version) suggesting it might be advantageous to vaccinate people who move around the most before seniors who are already isolated or in nursing homes.

ETA: Wired article here: https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-vaccine-super-spreaders/

[Lurker]

The protocol is evolving in any case. Many of the treatments being used to treat COVID only have an EUA/exploratory approval based on early indication that they are effective. As data comes in, protocols are being improved.

Absolutely. But that still doesn't change the possible effect of new strains on a third wave.

[Lurker]

It's a tricky question, whether to first vaccinate the spreaders, or to first vaccinate the most vulnerable. It was discussed on DDF soon after you took your hiatus. I shared the following article that explores this question:

I saw parts of that conversation, and I believe my opinion of vaccinating the 25-45 demographic was quoted during that conversation. I understand the need to save lives right now. I personally believe that more lives will be lost in the long run by taking the approach we currently employ in this country, as well as more serious consequences economically and to long-term quality of life.

[yuneeq]

I saw parts of that conversation, and I believe my opinion of vaccinating the 25-45 demographic was quoted during that conversation. I understand the need to save lives right now. I personally believe that more lives will be lost in the long run by taking the approach we currently employ in this country, as well as more serious consequences economically and to long-term quality of life.

It will take a lot longer to vaccinate the entire 25-45 demographic compared to just those at the highest risk level, and there’s a lot of superspreaders outside the 25-45 demographic as well. And while the 25 year olds may gets around more, it takes just a single 25 year old to kill dozens in a nursing home. 85 year olds are also pretty efficient at spreading it to each other in their setting. And the idea of asking each person to name a friend is just outright stupid - a logistical nightmare and nothing more than a pointless theoretical exercise. 

[yuneeq]

The only thing worse than a COVID death is a fake news manslaughter. How many easy-to-convince elderly have been fooled to believe that following basic precautions or taking a vaccine is more dangerous than COVID. It’s truly heartbreaking to see.

[PlatinumGuy]

The only thing worse than a COVID death is a fake news manslaughter. How many easy-to-convince elderly have been fooled to believe that following basic precautions or taking a vaccine is more dangerous than COVID. It’s truly heartbreaking to see.

Misinformation is the earliest and greatest tragedy to mankind. The snake fed Chava misinformation who then fed Adam misinformation. Haman fed Acheshveirosh misinformation.

[Lurker]

It will take a lot longer to vaccinate the entire 25-45 demographic compared to just those at the highest risk level, and there’s a lot of superspreaders outside the 25-45 demographic as well. And while the 25 year olds may gets around more, it takes just a single 25 year old to kill dozens in a nursing home. 85 year olds are also pretty efficient at spreading it to each other in their setting. And the idea of asking each person to name a friend is just outright stupid - a logistical nightmare and nothing more than a pointless theoretical exercise.

There's no perfect solution. There have been 41.2 million doses of the vaccine administered so far. There are between 80-85 million people between the ages of 25-45. My personal opinion is that we'd be much closer to stopping this pandemic with half of that demo partially vaccinated with a single shot than we are now, with 10-20 million seniors vaccinated. There would most definitely be a cost in the short term, but my feelings about what may be coming over the next few months leads me to believe the cost will be much, much greater with our current approach.

[aygart]

And while the 25 year olds may gets around more, it takes just a single 25 year old to kill dozens in a nursing home.

therefore getting that 25 year old vaccinated can save all of them.

There's no perfect solution. There have been 41.2 million doses of the vaccine administered so far. There are between 80-85 million people between the ages of 25-45. My personal opinion is that we'd be much closer to stopping this pandemic with half of that demo partially vaccinated with a single shot than we are now, with 10-20 million seniors vaccinated. There would most definitely be a cost in the short term, but my feelings about what may be coming over the next few months leads me to believe the cost will be much, much greater with our current approach.

A big variable is selection bias. Will the younger people who vaccinate be the ones who are out and about ignoring COVID or the ones who are being more careful already?