COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread

[Lurker]

A big variable is selection bias. Will the younger people who vaccinate be the ones who are out and about ignoring COVID or the ones who are being more careful already?

If it was marketed to them correctly? Possibly. That demo getting vaccinated is the key to getting back to normal. If it was presented as a way of opening the economy and schools, I think the majority of them would go for it. People just want their lives back.

[aygart]

If it was marketed to them correctly? Possibly. That demo getting vaccinated is the key to getting back to normal. If it was presented as a way of opening the economy and schools, I think the majority of them would go for it. People just want their lives back.

Marketing to them We no longer have the marketer-in-chief.

[Lurker]

Marketing to them We no longer have the marketer-in-chief.

For a little bit of relevance and a shot at salvaging some of his legacy, I'm pretty sure he'd get on board. He'd spend the next decade spinning it like they needed him because no one trusted the Biden administration, but who cares.

[AsherO]

There's no perfect solution. There have been 41.2 million doses of the vaccine administered so far. There are between 80-85 million people between the ages of 25-45. My personal opinion is that we'd be much closer to stopping this pandemic with half of that demo partially vaccinated with a single shot than we are now, with 10-20 million seniors vaccinated. There would most definitely be a cost in the short term, but my feelings about what may be coming over the next few months leads me to believe the cost will be much, much greater with our current approach.

Several variables you need to consider:
1. Can a fully vaccinated person still spread COVID. If this is the case, and it certainly is for non-mRNA vaccines, possibly for mRNA as well, then vaccinating 25-45 doesn’t really solve the issue.
2. Vaccine acceptance - if only 25-45% of 25-45y/os vaccinate, you reduce deaths by very little, the strategy only works if a very high percentage of them show up to vaccinate. If you vaccinate the seniors then every vaccine administered is effective at mitigating death in its own right, even if no one else was to vaccinate.
3. How much spread is caused by those 45-60? They’re not the highest death risk, but they’re also not included on your vaccine strategy.

[avromie7]

If it was marketed to them correctly? Possibly. That demo getting vaccinated is the key to getting back to normal. If it was presented as a way of opening the economy and schools, I think the majority of them would go for it. People just want their lives back.

Just like 2 weeks to slow the spread. The marketing has been filled with lies from day 1, do you really believe if all 25-45 y/os get vaccinated the teachers union will agree to open schools? They're on a mission to keep schools closed as long as possible, the next thing they'll say is we need to wait until there is a vaccine approved for children and every child must be vaccinated before being allowed back in school, mark my words.

[aygart]

Just like 2 weeks to slow the spread. The marketing has been filled with lies from day 1, do you really believe if all 25-45 y/os get vaccinated the teachers union will agree to open schools? They're on a mission to keep schools closed as long as possible, the next thing they'll say is we need to wait until there is a vaccine approved for children and every child must be vaccinated before being allowed back in school, mark my words.

I have heard from numerous random and unconnected places how  so many are extending themselves to switch their children to private schools over this.

[AsherO]

Just like 2 weeks to slow the spread. The marketing has been filled with lies from day 1, do you really believe if all 25-45 y/os get vaccinated the teachers union will agree to open schools? They're on a mission to keep schools closed as long as possible, the next thing they'll say is we need to wait until there is a vaccine approved for children and every child must be vaccinated before being allowed back in school, mark my words.

But why? The teachers I know love teaching and just want to be back in the classroom once and for all without the hovering threat of school shutdowns.

[yelped]

For a little bit of relevance and a shot at salvaging some of his legacy, I'm pretty sure he'd get on board. He'd spend the next decade spinning it like they needed him because no one trusted the Biden administration, but who cares.

Go visit him at Mar-a-lago and convince him to hold the hugest, biggest rallies that ever existed to vaccinate the attendees in mass.

[aygart]

But why? The teachers I know love teaching and just want to be back in the classroom once and for all without the hovering threat of school shutdowns.

Are they Union?

[Lurker]

Several variables you need to consider:
1. Can a fully vaccinated person still spread COVID. If this is the case, and it certainly is for non-mRNA vaccines, possibly for mRNA as well, then vaccinating 25-45 doesn’t really solve the issue.
2. Vaccine acceptance - if only 25-45% of 25-45y/os vaccinate, you reduce deaths by very little, the strategy only works if a very high percentage of them show up to vaccinate. If you vaccinate the seniors then every vaccine administered is effective at mitigating death in its own right, even if no one else was to vaccinate.
3. How much spread is caused by those 45-60? They’re not the highest death risk, but they’re also not included on your vaccine strategy.

Let me just say that my opinions are 100% boich svaros, and I have no data to back anything up.

1. I don't know. I would think that the viral load any vaccinated person is carrying would be lower, thereby lowering the risk of transmission, but I don't know how much getting vaccinated lowers your chances of being infected, or how much it lowers the chances of you infecting others. If it changes nothing on both counts, we're pretty screwed.
2. If we can only convince 25-45% of that demo to vaccinate, we're in trouble regardless of who we vaccinate first. Ultimately, though, my goal isn't reducing deaths right now. It's cutting the Rt. Without that, any win on deaths is short-lived.
3. Again, I don't have scientific numbers. The 25-45 demo sticks out to me because it seems to be the demo most likely to be employed, have children, and have living parents. When I imagine a Venn diagram of people and the number of contacts they're likely to have, I picture that demo smack in the middle. I may be 100% wrong.

[Lurker]

Just like 2 weeks to slow the spread. The marketing has been filled with lies from day 1, do you really believe if all 25-45 y/os get vaccinated the teachers union will agree to open schools? They're on a mission to keep schools closed as long as possible, the next thing they'll say is we need to wait until there is a vaccine approved for children and every child must be vaccinated before being allowed back in school, mark my words.

You're mixing issues. There was bad marketing surrounding this virus. I have no idea what that has to do with people not getting vaccinated. Most people are already on board with getting vaccinated.

The unions are a completely different animal. Will this change their minds? Probably not, but they'd have a lot less support from both the general public and internally.

[aygart]

Let me just say that my opinions are 100% boich svaros, and I have no data to back anything up.

1. I don't know. I would think that the viral load any vaccinated person is carrying would be lower, thereby lowering the risk of transmission, but I don't know how much getting vaccinated lowers your chances of being infected, or how much it lowers the chances of you infecting others. If it changes nothing on both counts, we're pretty screwed.

If getting infected after being vaccinated means no severe symptoms then just get vaccinated and anyone who doesn't is דמיו בראשו

When I imagine a Venn diagram of people and the number of contacts they're likely to have, I picture that demo smack in the middle. I may be 100% wrong.

This is a very Jewish imagination.

[AsherO]

Let me just say that my opinions are 100% boich svaros, and I have no data to back anything up.

1. I don't know. I would think that the viral load any vaccinated person is carrying would be lower, thereby lowering the risk of transmission, but I don't know how much getting vaccinated lowers your chances of being infected, or how much it lowers the chances of you infecting others. If it changes nothing on both counts, we're pretty screwed.
2. If we can only convince 25-45% of that demo to vaccinate, we're in trouble regardless of who we vaccinate first. Ultimately, though, my goal isn't reducing deaths right now. It's cutting the Rt. Without that, any win on deaths is short-lived.
3. Again, I don't have scientific numbers. The 25-45 demo sticks out to me because it seems to be the demo most likely to be employed, have children, and have living parents. When I imagine a Venn diagram of people and the number of contacts they're likely to have, I picture that demo smack in the middle. I may be 100% wrong.

All good points for your position, but IMHO only marginally so. At the end of the day Israel’s vaccinating it’s seniors first will prove to be a win (short- and long-term). The same # of vaccinations of a younger population/demographic would indeed slow the spread but more seniors would get infected and die R”L.

One caveat/difference is that in Israel the breakdown is different with more younger people, so (compared to the US) the same # of vaccines per capita (or an absolute number for that case) will cover a higher percentage of seniors and lower percentage of younger demographic band.

[AsherO]

If getting infected after being vaccinated means no severe symptoms then just get vaccinated and anyone who doesn't is דמיו בראשו

Only true when supply exceeds demand, otherwise there’s an imperative to prioritize  those with risk factors, which is what we’re talking about, priority.

[AsherO]

 

When I imagine a Venn diagram of people and the number of contacts they're likely to have, I picture that demo smack in the middle. I may be 100% wrong.

Do you mean people with the highest number of at-risk contacts?

If you mean absolute highest number of contacts, wouldn’t you say (elementary, high- and/or college) students have a higher number of contacts on average?

Or not because over time students are likelier to be exposed to the same people vs. 25-45s some of whom would be exposed to different people every day (depending on their jobs/professions)?

[Lurker]

All good points for your position, but IMHO only marginally so. At the end of the day Israel’s vaccinating it’s seniors first will prove to be a win (short- and long-term). The same # of vaccinations of a younger population/demographic would indeed slow the spread but more seniors would get infected and die R”L.

One caveat/difference is that in Israel the breakdown is different with more younger people, so (compared to the US) the same # of vaccines per capita (or an absolute number for that case) will cover a higher percentage of seniors and lower percentage of younger demographic band.

I don't think it's a coincidence that Israel's numbers spiked as they vaccinated their seniors and higher risk residents. Based on my observations, many people were being careful with the precautions because of high risk contacts. As soon as those contacts got vaccinated, the precautions either went out the window, or were at least greatly scaled back. If we're concerned about long-term health risks, such as fertility issues, this can prove to be catastrophic down the road. It also wreaks havoc over the economy in the short-term. Again, my goal has shifted to ending the pandemic ASAP, and not getting "distracted" by the immediate death toll. The longer the pandemic rages, the greater the toll will really be.

[Lurker]

Do you mean people with the highest number of at-risk contacts?

If you mean absolute highest number of contacts, wouldn’t you say (elementary, high- and/or college) students have a higher number of contacts on average?

Or not because over time students are likelier to be exposed to the same people vs. 25-45s some of whom would be exposed to different people every day (depending on their jobs/professions)?

I guess I mean contacts with their own unique contacts. A retail worker has a high number of contacts. Anyone doing service work is interacting with a wide variety of people. An office can be populated by employees from multiple school districts, or a variety of places of worship, or other social circles, and that's before you introduce clients into the equation. A student is generally exposed to the same circle of people (obviously with exceptions).

[AsherO]

I guess I mean contacts with their own unique contacts. A retail worker has a high number of contacts. Anyone doing service work is interacting with a wide variety of people. An office can be populated by employees from multiple school districts, or a variety of places of worship, or other social circles, and that's before you introduce clients into the equation. A student is generally exposed to the same circle of people (obviously with exceptions).

True for Elementary/high schoolers, not necessarily true for college students on a large campus.

[Lurker]

This is a very Jewish imagination.

I thought about that, but it's also very true of the outside world. Maybe extend the demo to 50 instead of 45. The median age for a woman having a first child is 26; for a man it's 30.

[aygart]

Only true when supply exceeds demand, otherwise there’s an imperative to prioritize  those with risk factors, which is what we’re talking about, priority.

Exactly my point. THis applies if the vaccination protocol is to prioritize risk and would not apply if it is prioritizing spread.