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« Last edited by Joel on July 19, 2021, 01:49:19 AM »

Author Topic: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread  (Read 580349 times)

Offline Lurker

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4040 on: February 09, 2021, 02:27:22 PM »
Again, 1/3 of current deaths are from a pool of 3M LTC residents. That means you can remove 1/3 of the deaths by vaccinating 3M people (at least 1m have natural immunity anyways). I don't know when that happened, but the sooner it does the better and the effects are already showing.

Define current. And where are you seeing the effects?

You're being very inconsistent with your proposed numbers. At 120m people, if you vaccinate spreaders you may slow the spread, but if you vaccinate 120m high risk people Covid isn't a problem anymore insofar as hospitalizations and death.

My numbers are based on single doses, while the current method is double doses. And I've said that the current method is better for short term death tolls, but I believe that giving the third wave air will hurt us more in the long run.

About 3 weeks. Your imagination needs to catch up to reality. All vaccines administered before ~Jan 20 are already reflected in new death counts, and dramatically so.

Of the 30M vaccinated people, how many received both doses before Jan 20? And it's been well documented that it takes roughly 2-6 weeks for deaths to be counted. So assuming
Symptom onset to death is around 7 days
you'd still need an average of 4-5 weeks to see the effects in the numbers.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4041 on: February 09, 2021, 02:33:35 PM »
Define current.
Today
And where are you seeing the effects?
Declining US deaths.

Of the 30M vaccinated people, how many received both doses before Jan 20? And it's been well documented that it takes roughly 2-6 weeks for deaths to be counted. So assuming you'd still need an average of 4-5 weeks to see the effects in the numbers.
Why are you ignoring the fact the first dose lowers deaths by 60%+? We see the effect of declining deaths after ~20 days for the first dose.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4042 on: February 09, 2021, 02:43:14 PM »
Also, it's far from clear the ~60% efficacy of the first dose is absolute efficacy, it's possible it's only given a certain viral load, and if precautions such as masking are dropped, the efficacy of 60% will drop, as explained in  this thread:

https://twitter.com/erlichya/status/1359102587807670278
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4043 on: February 09, 2021, 02:46:14 PM »
Today

Today's reported numbers or today's actual deaths? I don't know how you would get the latter, and the former isn't affected by people who were vaccinated within the last 30 days.

Declining US deaths.

Yesterday's 7 day average was at 3127, which is pretty much where it's been for the last month. I'm not seeing the decline.

Why are you ignoring the fact the first dose lowers deaths by 60%+? We see the effect of declining deaths after ~20 days for the first dose.

Talk about being inconsistent with the numbers... Why should the single dose lower death but not Rt? And how many people were vaccinated with even the first dose by Jan 20? Look, I'm happy we're vaccinating people and that there's a light at the end of the tunnel, but if you're seeing effects of the vaccine already, you need to take the rose tint off your glasses. It's not showing up in the stats yet.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4044 on: February 09, 2021, 02:50:41 PM »
Today's reported numbers or today's actual deaths? I don't know how you would get the latter, and the former isn't affected by people who were vaccinated within the last 30 days.

Plenty of reported deaths are from within the last 7 days and thus impacted by the ~20-25m vaccinated by Jan 20.

Talk about being inconsistent with the numbers... Why should the lower dose lower death but not Rt?
1 dose lowers deaths because 60%+ of recipients are removed from the pool of potential deaths.
1 dose doesn't impact prevalence because the 60% reduction is countered by 2x spread from being less cautious, which is true for spreaders, but not for at-risk population like NH residents who aren't going to be 2x less careful.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4045 on: February 09, 2021, 02:57:34 PM »
Plenty of reported deaths are from within the last 7 days and thus impacted by the ~20-25m vaccinated by Jan 20.

IINM, the number for deaths reported within 7 days of occurrence is pretty low, and I'm pretty sure there were fewer than 20M people vaccinated as of 20 days ago.

1 dose lowers deaths because 60%+ of recipients are removed from the pool of potential deaths.
1 dose doesn't impact prevalence because the 60% reduction is countered by 2x spread from being less cautious, which is true for spreaders, but not for at-risk population like NH residents who aren't going to be 2x less careful.

100% false. The amount of people I've encountered who are taking fewer precautions because they started the vax process is pretty high, unfortunately, including some of my own family members. And it's also common for other people to be less careful around the higher risk people because they think they aren't really high risk anymore.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4046 on: February 09, 2021, 03:12:21 PM »
I'm pretty sure there were fewer than 20M people vaccinated as of 20 days ago.
16.5M doses administered by Jan 20, 2-3m of those are second doses, + a reporting lag so it's 15-20m people vaccinated by Jan 20

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&country=~USA&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=new_deaths_per_million&pickerSort=desc

(Is there any way to embed these tables?)
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4047 on: February 09, 2021, 03:21:24 PM »
IINM, the number for deaths reported within 7 days of occurrence is pretty low,

if you're seeing effects of the vaccine already, you need to take the rose tint off your glasses. It's not showing up in the stats yet.


US deaths by occurrence date:

Jan 30-Feb 6 2528
Jan 23-30 8909
Jan 16-23 13610
Jan 9-16 16122
Jan 2-9 18584
HIGH WATER MARK EXACTLY WHEN VACCINES STARTED WORKING
Dec 26-Jan 2 21384
Dec 19-26 21493
Dec 12-19 20905
Dec 5-12 19853


https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Yes, there is a reporting lag impacting the numbers slightly, but US deaths peaked exactly when the vaccine came into effect, and very dramatically so. There are likely 1000-2000 US deaths avoided every day solely by vaccines.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4048 on: February 09, 2021, 03:38:42 PM »

US deaths by occurrence date:

Jan 30-Feb 6 2528
Jan 23-30 8909
Jan 16-23 13610
Jan 9-16 16122
Jan 2-9 18584
HIGH WATER MARK EXACTLY WHEN VACCINES STARTED WORKING
Dec 26-Jan 2 21384
Dec 19-26 21493
Dec 12-19 20905
Dec 5-12 19853


https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Yes, there is a reporting lag impacting the numbers slightly, but US deaths peaked exactly when the vaccine came into effect, and very dramatically so. There are likely 1000-2000 US deaths avoided every day solely by vaccines.

You're seeing one thing, and I'm seeing another. The numbers you posted seem to support what I said about very few deaths being reported within 7 days of occurrence and most being reported within 3-6 weeks. Let's put a pin in this and update the numbers every week for the next 4 weeks. I think you're underestimating the reporting lag and overestimating the vaccine effects, but time will tell. I'd much rather you be right than me.

And 1-2k US deaths a day... time to ease up on the Kool-Aid.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4049 on: February 09, 2021, 03:47:28 PM »
I’m posting cold hard facts, you’re arguing hypotheses and accusing me of Kool Aid.

I’m out now but you can see how big the reporting lag is by overall deaths reported and percentages.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4050 on: February 09, 2021, 04:12:57 PM »
I’m posting cold hard facts, you’re arguing hypotheses and accusing me of Kool Aid.

I’m out now but you can see how big the reporting lag is by overall deaths reported and percentages.

Your facts are cold, hard, and very incomplete. The truth is, there's no way to attribute the apparent decline in deaths to either the vaccine or the lag. You need to wait for the lag to catch up and then do the math with complete facts.

And the Kool-Aid comment was on your estimate of vaccines cutting the daily deaths by 30-65% already. That's a bit extreme.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4051 on: February 09, 2021, 04:15:21 PM »
Meanwhile my 21 year old son in Israel got vaccinated with a regular next day appointment even though he had antibodies from last April.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4052 on: February 09, 2021, 04:24:12 PM »
the Kool-Aid comment was on your estimate of vaccines cutting the daily deaths by 30-65% already. That's a bit extreme.
30%+ of all US Covid deaths are from a pool of 3M LTC residents
~30% of US deaths are over 85
~30% of US deaths are 75-85
~20% of US deaths are 65-75
~15% of US deaths are 55-65

There are only 25m people in the US over 75.

If 3M LTC residents got 1 dose, 10-20 days later US deaths would drop by 15%

If 20m 75+ got 1 dose, 10-20 days later US deaths would drop by 40%

1000-2000 deaths are already being avoided every day by vaccines

״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4053 on: February 09, 2021, 05:00:37 PM »
To add perspective; Florida gave at at least 1 dose to 72% of residents over 60 by Feb 4. They account for ~90% of deaths, so after 10-20 days 66% efficacy x 72% x 90% = 42% deaths avoided.

There are many other factors but that’s a top of the head calculation

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/at-this-early-stage-of-the-covid-19-vaccine-roll-out-most-older-adults-have-not-yet-been-vaccinated-as-supply-remains-limited/
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4054 on: February 09, 2021, 05:04:12 PM »
To add perspective; Florida gave at at least 1 dose to 72% of residents over 60 by Feb 4. They account for ~90% of deaths, so after 10-20 days 66% efficacy x 72% x 90% = 42% deaths avoided.

There are many other factors but that’s a top of the head calculation

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/at-this-early-stage-of-the-covid-19-vaccine-roll-out-most-older-adults-have-not-yet-been-vaccinated-as-supply-remains-limited/
So is this reflected in the actual results?
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4055 on: February 09, 2021, 05:08:47 PM »
So is this reflected in the actual results?
Yes. US deaths by occurrence date dropped 50%+ since vaccines started working


US deaths by occurrence date:

Jan 30-Feb 6 2528
Jan 23-30 8909
Jan 16-23 13610
Jan 9-16 16122
Jan 2-9 18584
HIGH WATER MARK EXACTLY WHEN VACCINES STARTED WORKING
Dec 26-Jan 2 21384
Dec 19-26 21493
Dec 12-19 20905
Dec 5-12 19853


https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Yes, there is a reporting lag impacting the numbers slightly, but US deaths peaked exactly when the vaccine came into effect, and very dramatically so. There are likely 1000-2000 US deaths avoided every day solely by vaccines.

״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4056 on: February 09, 2021, 05:12:50 PM »
Yes. US deaths by occurrence date dropped 50%+ since vaccines started working
There's no way you can know that, we need to wait for the backlog to catch up. I'm sorry but you're being ridiculous to use incomplete data as proof of efficacy.
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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4057 on: February 09, 2021, 05:15:41 PM »
There's no way you can know that, we need to wait for the backlog to catch up. I'm sorry but you're being ridiculous to use incomplete data as proof of efficacy.
There is a backlog of vaccination data just like there is a backlog of death data.
We know the efficacy very well from Israel and the trials, I’m not trying to prove it.
I’m demonstrating how the math we already know is playing out in real life and you don’t want to see it 
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4058 on: February 09, 2021, 05:16:48 PM »
There is a backlog of vaccination data just like there is a backlog of death data.
We know the efficacy very well from Israel and the trials, I’m not trying to prove it.
I’m demonstrating how the math we already know is playing out in real life and you don’t want to see it
You literally have zero useful data, but you're using it as evidence SMH
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread
« Reply #4059 on: February 09, 2021, 05:21:09 PM »
From 1/2 to 1/9 the total number of deaths dropped from 77k to 64k, COVID deaths dropped by 3k. Please explain to me how that's any indication that COVID deaths are down? If anything they'll be higher when all the data is in.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.