COVID-19 (Wuhan Novel Coronavirus) Pandemic Master Thread

[Lurker]

To add perspective; Florida gave at at least 1 dose to 72% of residents over 60 by Feb 4. They account for ~90% of deaths, so after 10-20 days 66% efficacy x 72% x 90% = 42% deaths avoided.

There are many other factors but that’s a top of the head calculation

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/at-this-early-stage-of-the-covid-19-vaccine-roll-out-most-older-adults-have-not-yet-been-vaccinated-as-supply-remains-limited/

Just glanced at the article you posted, and this stood out to me:

To date, nearly 32 million people, or about 10% of the US population, have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. According to the CDC, adults ages 65 and older, including residents of long-term care facilities who are primarily in this age group, account for 29% of all people who were administered a COVID-19 vaccine dose in the first month of vaccination, disproportionate to their share of the overall population (15%).

First of all, 32M is one dose, not 2. Second, 29% of 32M is 9.2M people over 65 that were vaccinated.

Nationwide, more than 54 million people are age 65 or older, in addition to those who are living in long-term care facilities.

That's ~ 17% of the demo which has provided 90% of the deaths who have received at least one dose, maybe 2.

I'm not a big fan of any of those numbers, though, because towards the end of that article is this gem:

This analysis uses publicly available data from state websites pertaining to vaccine administration retrieved on February 4, 2021. Population estimates by age for each state come the from 2019 US Census Bureau.
There are some data limitations. Notably, 22 states do not report vaccination rates by age, which means it is not possible to calculate the overall share of older adults in the US who have received a COVID-19 vaccine based on state-level data. States also vary in the age increments they report, with some reporting data for those 65 and older with others reporting 60 and older or 70 and older. Tennessee reports data for adults 61 and older. One state, North Dakota, reports vaccination rates by age, but not vaccine distribution by age, and are therefore defined as not reporting vaccinations by age. Another state, Connecticut, reports age data for adults 75 and older by county, but not at the state level, and are therefore defined as not reporting vaccinations by age.

States also report vaccinations differently. States vary in whether they report the number of people who have received at least one vaccine dose, people who have received one dose and people who have received two doses, or total vaccinations administered. Where possible, we report data for the total number of people who have received at least one vaccine dose. However, some states only report total vaccinations, meaning people who have received two doses are included in the data twice. As of 2/4/21, Pennsylvania’s vaccine dashboard data does not include data from Philadelphia county due to differences in reporting criteria.

States also vary in whether their age data include long-term care facility residents. Currently, only three states (Maine, Massachusetts and Virginia) explicitly state that their age data include data from the Pharmacy Partnership for Long-Term Care and other long-term care facilities. One state, North Carolina specifies that data on doses administered as part of the Partnership are not reflected in their age data. The remainder of the states either do not specify whether their age data include data from long-term care facilities, or in others, it was unclear based on the description. According to CDC data, about 1.5 million residents of long-term care facilities received at least one dose of the vaccine nationwide, most of whom are presumably older than age 65. If states do not take into account long-term care residents who have been vaccinated, the shares reported here may somewhat understate the total share of older adults that have received at least one dose in those states. Finally, it is possible that the estimates of vaccination rates based on state websites may be low if there is a lag in reporting by states.

[Lurker]

Yes. US deaths by occurrence date dropped 50%+ since vaccines started working

You don't see a "coincidence" that your high water mark is 6 weeks ago, and it just happens to take 3-6 weeks for most deaths to be reported?

[PlatinumGuy]

From 1/2 to 1/9 the total number of deaths dropped from 77k to 64k, COVID deaths dropped by 3k. Please explain to me how that's any indication that COVID deaths are down? If anything they'll be higher when all the data is in.

Dec 26-Jan 2 2021 all cause death is 75k
Dec 28-Jan 4 2020 all cause death is 60k
Jan 2-Jan 9 2021 all cause death is 62k
Jan 4-Jan 11 2020 all cause death is 60k

From the 13k more that died Dec 26-Jan 2 2021, 3k are known to be covid. A few more thousand are likely due to covid as well, the rest are likely explained by normal fluctuations, holiday related suicides, and less medical procedures in the period immediately prior due to covid and the holidays.   

You literally have zero useful data, but you're using it as evidence SMH

I don't know if vaccines lowered US deaths by 60% or by 10%, but I do know the following statement is patently false, we know enough vaccines were administered to materially impact the death count, and the death count is indeed lower.

I don't think the vaccine is showing the number of deaths yet, it'll probably be another couple of months before vaccines have a significant effect on deaths.

You don't see a "coincidence" that your high water mark is 6 weeks ago, and it just happens to take 3-6 weeks for most deaths to be reported?

Source? So far it seems the coincidence is because you made up the fact to fit your claim and created a coincidence.

[PlatinumGuy]

That's ~ 17% of the demo which has provided 90% of the deaths who have received at least one dose, maybe 2.

That alone would lower deaths by close to 10% assuming efficacy of 66% after 1 dose.

[Lurker]

Source? So far it seems the coincidence is because you made up the fact to fit your claim and created a coincidence.

It's been very well documented up and down this board for months now.

[Lurker]

That alone would lower deaths by close to 10% assuming efficacy of 66% after 1 dose.

Great. That's about 300 deaths a day, not 2k.

[PlatinumGuy]

Great. That's about 300 deaths a day, not 2k.

Right, so can we at least agree that vaccines are already lowering US deaths?

Now, I believe the number is closer to 50% than 10%, for several key reasons.

1)  The 17% figure you quoted is only using data from half of the states who report vaccines by age. Realistically speaking, if we assume the proportion of 60+/60- getting vaccines in States that aren't reporting by age is the same as States reporting by age (2:1), we'd be at around 25% of 60+

2) That 25% is of 60+, if you narrow it to LTC I'm guessing you're at 80%+ vaccinated, and 75+ probably 50%+ vaccinated (group is half the size + more prioritization). That's already 66% efficacy after one dose x 60% of deaths 75+ x 50% vaccinated = 20% reduction in deaths (besides for the reduction in under 75)

3) There are 10m people with a second dose and 95%+ efficacy against deaths, again biased towards the highest risk group (LTC residents and staff)

4) The efficacy rate is 66% against infection. Against death, even after one dose, it's likely closer to 85%+.


If you add up the optimistic numbers of 85% efficacy against death +  50% of 75+ vaccinated (60% of deaths) + 25% of 60+ vaccinated (30% of deaths), you get 30%+ reduction in deaths. Now compound that with less spread inside LTC (where staff members were also vaccinated), and between the elderly and their peers, and it's easy to see 50%.

I'm not defending any specific number, I'm arguing that vaccines are definitely reducing US deaths already, and it's not crazy to assume that number is over 1000/day currently.

[yzj]

The hundreds of thousands of flu hospitalizations and tens of thousands of deaths are non existent this year.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/02/09/health/coronavirus-flu-spread-cdc-wellness/index.html

[Lurker]

I'm not defending any specific number, I'm arguing that vaccines are definitely reducing US deaths already, and it's not crazy to assume that number is over 1000/day currently.

None of the numbers you used just now are based in anything other than assumptions. A far cry from cold, hard facts.

Ultimately, I don't disagree that vaccines are helping. I don't think anyone disputes that. I took issue with your 1-2k/day number, and my issue stands. I also don't disagree that the vaccine strategy will save lives, and that it will be measurable in the immediate future. I just believe that in the long run, prioritizing the highly mobile demos over the higher risk demos will end the pandemic quicker. Given my track record in life, I'm more likely to be wrong than right. But nothing you've posted has changed my opinion.

[PlatinumGuy]

it just happens to take 3-6 weeks for most deaths to be reported?

I think you're conflating the fact the deaths rise 3-6 weeks after cases, which is because the first wave of cases spreads in a younger demo and takes a few weeks before it filters through to the older and LTC.

I don't think there is any basis to assume the CDC doesn't know how many people died 6 weeks ago in the US yet, so insofar as I can tell, assuming the CDC death count is incomplete is koolaid.

 

Ultimately, I don't disagree that vaccines are helping. I don't think anyone disputes that.

Here, this was disputed:

I don't think the vaccine is showing the number of deaths yet, it'll probably be another couple of months before vaccines have a significant effect on deaths.

I just believe that in the long run, prioritizing the highly mobile demos over the higher risk demos will end the pandemic quicker.

I agree with you in theory, but we know for a fact the efficacy is much greater in terms of severe illness/hospitalization/deaths than it is in terms of infection/transmission, and we know for a fact the demo of spreaders than you're talking about is 2-3x the size of the demo that accounts for 90%+ of severe illness/hospitalization/deaths, so realistically, eradicating the pool of potential deaths will be much faster than eradicating the pool of of potential spreaders (which may never happen even if the entire demo is vaccinated if efficacy against transmission is low enough that behavior changes can counter it entirely)

[PlatinumGuy]

To add perspective; Florida gave at at least 1 dose to 72% of residents over 60 by Feb 4. They account for ~90% of deaths, so after 10-20 days 66% efficacy x 72% x 90% = 42% deaths avoided.

There are many other factors but that’s a top of the head calculation

https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/at-this-early-stage-of-the-covid-19-vaccine-roll-out-most-older-adults-have-not-yet-been-vaccinated-as-supply-remains-limited/

I just looked at the data again and I misread it originally. 72% of vaccine recipients were 65+, but only 29% of 65+ received a first vaccine dose, not 72% of 60+.

[PlatinumGuy]

None of the numbers you used just now are based in anything other than assumptions. A far cry from cold, hard facts.

The CDC recently added full age data. At least 8.5m people 75+ received a first dose. That's 35% vaccinated out of a group who compose 65% of deaths (likely responsible for a larger amount of deaths when they infect their peers)

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-demographic


1.7m (out of 3m) LTC residents got 1 dose + 1.2m staff, and 600k+400k of them got a second dose. Around 1.2m residents have natural immunity, so if these 1.7m are on top of that, we pretty much eradicated all LTC cases which accounted for 30% of US covid deaths (around 1000/day at peak a few weeks ago)

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations-ltc


In Israel first dose efficacy is close to 90% on day 21.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.01.21250957v1


At the very least, the cold hards fact support a 20% reduction in US deaths due to vaccines within the next 20-30 days at the very latest.

[Lurker]

At the very least, the cold hards fact support a 20% reduction in US deaths due to vaccines within the next 20-30 days at the very latest.

A reduction in deaths of 600/day about 60-90 days from the start of the vaccine rollout makes a ton more sense to me than a reduction of 1-2k/day 45 days after the start. Can you understand my Kool-Aid comment now?

[PlatinumGuy]

A reduction in deaths of 600/day about 60-90 days from the start of the vaccine rollout makes a ton more sense to me than a reduction of 1-2k/day 45 days after the start. Can you understand my Kool-Aid comment now?

LTC deaths are 1000/day, and it seems like those were all but eradicated, aside from the other reductions.

I understood your Kool-Aid statement very well, it's just wrong. My position that 1000-2000/day deaths are avoided now is very well supported by data even if it is isn't proven conclusively.

[Lurker]

LTC deaths are 1000/day, and it seems like those were all but eradicated, aside from the other reductions.

I understood your Kool-Aid statement very well, it's just wrong. My position that 1000-2000/day deaths are avoided now is very well supported by data even if it is isn't proven conclusively.

I don't need you to agree with me. I just want it to be clear that when the numbers support 600/day in a few weeks from now, 1-2k/day right now is a very extreme position. Who knows? Maybe you'll be proven right. I don't think anyone will complain if you are. It just looks like Kool-Aid to me right now.

[PlatinumGuy]

I don't need you to agree with me. I just want it to be clear that when the numbers support 600/day in a few weeks from now, 1-2k/day right now

LTC is ~1000/day, not 600. 600k LTC residents + 400k staff already got a second dose, which is already 1/5th or 200/day, and the additional 1.1m is already in effect and will gradually increase.

It's very possible the current impact on US deaths is 10%/300, although I think the data suggests closer to 50%/2000.

The only point I'm confident about is that vaccines are already lowering US deaths to some extent or another, and I'm happy we agree on that.

[aygart]

LTC is ~1000/day, not 600. 600k LTC residents + 400k staff already got a second dose, which is already 1/5th or 200/day, and the additional 1.1m is already in effect and will gradually increase.

It's very possible the current impact on US deaths is 10%/300, although I think the data suggests closer to 50%/2000.

The only point I'm confident about is that vaccines are already lowering US deaths to some extent or another, and I'm happy we agree on that.

Either way, that has little to do with the crux of his argument

[PlatinumGuy]

Either way, that has little to do with the crux of his argument

My point was to illustrate how close we are to eradicating most of the acute problem (hospitalizations/deaths). It would take 55m doses to eradicate 80-90% of the problem if you vaccinate all 60+ with one dose, while 55m doses administered to 25-45yo may not even have an impact at all.

we know for a fact the efficacy is much greater in terms of severe illness/hospitalization/deaths than it is in terms of infection/transmission, and we know for a fact the demo of spreaders than you're talking about is 2-3x the size of the demo that accounts for 90%+ of severe illness/hospitalization/deaths, so realistically, eradicating the pool of potential deaths will be much faster than eradicating the pool of of potential spreaders (which may never happen even if the entire demo is vaccinated if efficacy against transmission is low enough that behavior changes can counter it entirely)

[PlatinumGuy]

The hundreds of thousands of flu hospitalizations and tens of thousands of deaths are non existent this year.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/02/09/health/coronavirus-flu-spread-cdc-wellness/index.html

So all the flu hospitalizations and deaths in previous years were only there bc we didn't distance enough, and if we distance more, we wouldn't have Covid hospitalizations/death either

Not saying we should, just pointing out most of the problem is manmade, even if it's justly so.

[Lurker]

LTC is ~1000/day, not 600.

I think this number is wrong. From what I can see, the highest death tolls in LTCFs were in April 2020. I think the mistake you're making is taking a stat that is not time specific (1/3 of all Covid deaths are from LTCF) and smoothing the percentage. In reality, the LTCF deaths made up a larger percentage of the deaths early in the pandemic. While they are still a very significant number of the current deaths, I don't believe they are still 33%.