That's a big if.
Anyway the whole thing will likely boil down to FL and OH again, so the only numbers that matter are foreclosures and unemployment in those states, not nationwide. And they ain't pretty.
I don't think it will come down to FL and OH only (though those 2 are very important). Remember Obama opened a whole new front out west against what was (sort of) safe Republican states like CO, NV. Those states are real toss-ups now and they will also be a big factor. On the other hand I think Republicans will be able to make a serious play for states like WI, MN, maybe even MI and PA. And they need to take back IN, VA, and NC (they will) if they are to stand any chance