Author Topic: Superspreaders and small sample size  (Read 1847 times)

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Superspreaders and small sample size
« Reply #15 on: May 27, 2020, 10:30:37 AM »
Very interesting. Have you seen anything to back that up?
The same data that you saw. We know that at a certain point people still test positive in PCR & yet PFU assays show the virus isn't potent enough for transmission.
We also know it takes some time from exposure to becoming contagious. At least 15 minutes that it takes to circulate...

So perhaps the interval is too short?

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Offline junion

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Re: Superspreaders and small sample size
« Reply #16 on: May 27, 2020, 12:37:22 PM »

We also know it takes some time from exposure to becoming contagious. At least 15 minutes that it takes to circulate...

source?

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Superspreaders and small sample size
« Reply #17 on: May 27, 2020, 01:02:36 PM »
source?

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.12886.pdf

Quote

Once a person is infected, it
takes a period of time known as the latent period before they are able to transmit the
virus. The current best-estimate of the median latent time is ≈3 days followed by a
≈4 day infectious period ​(Li et al. 2020​, ​He et al. 2020)​.


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4440524/

Quote
For example, the average length of the eclipse phase has been estimated to be around 24 h for infections with the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)10,11,12,13,14, and varied from 6 h to as much as 12 h for infections with different strains of influenza virus4,15,16,17,18.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0516_article

Quote
Finally, we evaluated the replication kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 in a multistep growth curve. In brief, we infected Vero CCL-81 and HUH7.0 cells with SARS-CoV-2 at a low multiplicity of infection (0.1) and evaluated viral replication every 6 h for 72 h postinoculation, with separate harvests in the cell-associated and supernatant compartments (Figure 4). Similar to SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2 replicated rapidly in Vero cells after an initial eclipse phase, achieving 105 TCID50/mL by 24 h postinfection and peaking at >106 TCID50/mL. We observed similar titers in cell-associated and supernatant compartments, which indicated efficient egress. Despite peak viral titers by 48 h postinoculation, major CPE was not observed until 60 h postinoculation and peaked at 72 h postinoculation, indicating that infected monolayers should be harvested before peak CPE is observed. Replication in HUH7.0 cells also increased quickly after an initial eclipse phase but plateaued by 24 h postinoculation in the intracellular compartment at 2 ื 103 TCID50/mL and decreased after 66 h postinoculation. Virus was not detected in the supernatant of infected HUH7 cells until 36 h postinoculation and exhibited lower titers at all timepoints (Figure 4). Major CPE was never observed in HUH7.0 cells. These results are consistent with previous reports for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, which suggested similar replication dynamics between the zoonotic CoV strains (23,24).




See also https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15752773
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Superspreaders and small sample size
« Reply #18 on: September 21, 2020, 11:24:46 PM »
I don't think it has to do with the actual viral genome so much as other circumstances causing transmission. My guess is a brief interval of time where the virus is multiplying enough to be contagious yet the immune system hasn't neutralized it sufficiently. That period may not occur in most people, or be too short to infect others.
 
Spreading would also be increased by a cold with sneezing, caughing, & extra droplet production early on before the immune system renders it intransmittable.

As to your wife, perhaps you overcame the virus fast enough that it wasn't transmittable by the time you got home from NY

Looks like my theory has been proven

https://www.vox.com/21296067/coronavirus-covid-symptoms-superspreaders-superspreading-contagious-bars-restaurants
Quote
  The research suggests that people carrying this virus are potentially infectious for about two and a half days — and rise to a “moderate probability of transmission per contact” for “less than half a day,” the researchers write


So Super-Spreaders aren't necessarily distinct, it's just per chance that their contagious period was when they were around a lot of people.
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: Superspreaders and small sample size
« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2020, 11:16:46 PM »
This fact gets me nervous, especially for Yomim Noraim. All you need is one superspreader, and even if there is %50 immunity in the community, maybe half to a quarter of people in the room can get it. especially since people are there for many hours and davening loudly. Add that to the posbility that immunity might wear off by that time. OUCH. :o

This post from May is spot on

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Re: Superspreaders and small sample size
« Reply #20 on: September 30, 2020, 11:58:07 PM »
/photo/1

Possibly the largest super spreader event in the world (although I suspect it's more than one infection chain and people infected each other before/after Yo'T)
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Offline yitzgar

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Re: Superspreaders and small sample size
« Reply #21 on: October 01, 2020, 01:11:15 AM »
This fact gets me nervous, especially for Yomim Noraim. All you need is one superspreader, and even if there is %50 immunity in the community, maybe half to a quarter of people in the room can get it. especially since people are there for many hours and davening loudly. Add that to the posbility that immunity might wear off by that time. OUCH. :o
Wow, did this happen!