Author Topic: Famous People With Coronavirus  (Read 20277 times)

Offline biobook

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #140 on: January 01, 2021, 12:17:04 AM »
800,000 people got vaccinated in Israel. Even at 95% efficacy we can expect 40,000 Covid cases.
I don't think this is right. 
Your calculation assumes 5% of vaccinated people will get covid.
The clinical trial showed something different, that 5% of covid cases were among vaccinated people (95% among placebo). IIRC out of 20,000 vaccinated people, there were 9 cases after the second injection, which is .045% of vaccinated people. 
So for 800,000 vaccinated people, we should expect 360 covid cases.
Unless I messed up a few decimal places...?

Offline yelped

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #141 on: January 01, 2021, 12:19:28 AM »
@biobook I would say that the clinical trials were mostly completed between waves, so it is to be expected that there are more than 360 infections in real life within the first 10 days.

Offline biobook

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #142 on: January 01, 2021, 12:29:05 AM »
@biobook I would say that the clinical trials were mostly completed between waves, so it is to be expected that there are more than 360 infections in real life within the first 10 days.
The clinical trials were in multiple locations, not necessarily "between waves" in all places.

In the clinical trial, the placebo and vaccinated groups both had 20-30 cases in the week after injection (vaccine or placebo).  So, yes, in theory, within the first 10 days the number of infections in vaccinated people could be as high as
the real life infection level in that location.  Unless, of course, the vaccinated people understand that they're not protected during that initial period, and they socially-distance accordingly, and thereby keep their infection rate low.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #143 on: January 01, 2021, 12:42:38 AM »
I don't think this is right. 
Your calculation assumes 5% of vaccinated people will get covid.
The clinical trial showed something different, that 5% of covid cases were among vaccinated people (95% among placebo). IIRC out of 20,000 vaccinated people, there were 9 cases after the second injection, which is .045% of vaccinated people. 
So for 800,000 vaccinated people, we should expect 360 covid cases.
Unless I messed up a few decimal places...?
95:5 is the probability. The actual amount of people who get covid in any cohort is of course relative to incidence and prevalence, and not a set percentage of vaccine getters.

I’m too tired to do the math properly, but in the last 10 days since Israel started vaccinating, approx 40,000 people were PCR Positive, or roughly 4% of the population. A 95:5 efficiency would suggest  vaccine receivers are 20x less likely, which would be 0.2%. 0.2% of 800,000 is 1500.

The reason it’s lower is likely because the people getting the vaccine in Israel are Higher risk and therefore more likely to be careful not to catch it.

In the trials, 5% of the Covid cases were in the vaccine cohort, but the size of the placebo group was identical. You have to adjust for the different size of the not vaccinated group.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Ergel

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #144 on: January 01, 2021, 05:23:36 AM »
.4% have tested positive, not 4%. But either way, testing positive 10 days post vaccination means infection was 4 or 5 days post vaccination. At which point the vaccination probably had done nothing. I'm not sure why this is a news story.
If you look at the infection graph from the Pfizer trials, infections were identical through day 10 between the vaccine and placebo group
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline aygart

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #145 on: January 01, 2021, 10:00:00 AM »
  Unless, of course, the vaccinated people understand that they're not protected during that initial period, and they socially-distance accordingly, and thereby keep their infection rate low.
Two weeks to stop the spread.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline YitzyS

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #146 on: January 01, 2021, 10:05:25 AM »
.4% have tested positive, not 4%. But either way, testing positive 10 days post vaccination means infection was 4 or 5 days post vaccination. At which point the vaccination probably had done nothing. I'm not sure why this is a news story.
If you look at the infection graph from the Pfizer trials, infections were identical through day 10 between the vaccine and placebo group
There is also another possibility, that the virus was induced by the vaccination. No?
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Offline S209

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #147 on: January 01, 2021, 10:10:59 AM »
There is also another possibility, that the virus was induced by the vaccination. No?
There isn’t any virus in the vaccine, not even dead virus.
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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #148 on: January 01, 2021, 12:00:47 PM »
There is also another possibility, that the virus was induced by the vaccination. No?
Not with Moderna/Pfizer, although Ontario didn't realize that and is recommending people stay home for 2-3 days after getting vaccinating.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline avromie7

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #149 on: January 01, 2021, 12:17:23 PM »
Not with Moderna/Pfizer, although Ontario didn't realize that and is recommending people stay home for 2-3 days after getting vaccinating.
That's good for stopping people who got vaccinated from getting covid right away, essentially wasting the vaccine.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #150 on: January 01, 2021, 12:47:14 PM »
That's good for stopping people who got vaccinated from getting covid right away, essentially wasting the vaccine.

1. Wasting the vaccine
2. By getting it, they assume the risks that come with COVID (especially true for seniors or those with risk factors who are likely to be vaccinated earlier
3. By getting it they risk spreading it further.

Anyone who gets vaccinated should continue taking the same precautions as before for a week  or two, but there’s no reason to believe they’re more susceptible to infection than anyone else.

Offline TimT

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #151 on: January 02, 2021, 08:18:26 PM »
Larry King

Offline TimT

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #152 on: January 04, 2021, 09:22:47 PM »
Rosh Yeshivas Chevron HaRav Dovid Cohen.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #153 on: January 04, 2021, 09:30:06 PM »
Rosh Yeshivas Chevron HaRav Dovid Cohen.
This is following an outbreak at Chevron which was one of the most careful Yeshivos and had full MoH guidance and compliance.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline TimT

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #154 on: January 04, 2021, 11:13:45 PM »
Congresswoman Kay Granger

Offline TimT

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #155 on: January 09, 2021, 06:43:43 PM »
NYPD Commissioner Dermot Shea

Offline Kobe Bryant

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #156 on: January 16, 2021, 07:08:34 PM »
Former Ashkenazi chief Rabbi Yisrael Meir Lau has tested positive for coronavirus, days after he received the second dose of a coronavirus vaccine, according to Hebrew media reports. It is not immediately clear when Rabbi Lau, 83, was infected with the virus.

He is reportedly feeling well and doesn’t have any symptoms. His name for Tehillim is ישראל מאיר בן חיה.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #157 on: January 16, 2021, 09:15:41 PM »
Former Ashkenazi chief Rabbi Yisrael Meir Lau has tested positive for coronavirus, days after he received the second dose of a coronavirus vaccine, according to Hebrew media reports. It is not immediately clear when Rabbi Lau, 83, was infected with the virus.

He is reportedly feeling well and doesn’t have any symptoms. His name for Tehillim is ישראל מאיר בן חיה.


Davening that he continues to feel well and fully recovers soon Bez”H.

Offline YitzyS

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Re: Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #158 on: January 16, 2021, 10:41:01 PM »
According to this doctor, this famous person has Covid.
Monkeys don't fly unless you put them on airplanes

Online Euclid

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Famous People With Coronavirus
« Reply #159 on: January 16, 2021, 11:18:16 PM »
According to this doctor, this famous person has Covid.
His bedside manner needs improvement.