I don't think this is right.

Your calculation assumes 5% of vaccinated people will get covid.

The clinical trial showed something different, that 5% of covid cases were among vaccinated people (95% among placebo). IIRC out of 20,000 vaccinated people, there were 9 cases after the second injection, which is .045% of vaccinated people.

So for 800,000 vaccinated people, we should expect 360 covid cases.

Unless I messed up a few decimal places...?

95:5 is the probability. The actual amount of people who get covid in any cohort is of course relative to incidence and prevalence, and not a set percentage of vaccine getters.

I’m too tired to do the math properly, but in the last 10 days since Israel started vaccinating, approx 40,000 people were PCR Positive, or roughly 4% of the population. A 95:5 efficiency would suggest vaccine receivers are 20x less likely, which would be 0.2%. 0.2% of 800,000 is 1500.

The reason it’s lower is likely because the people getting the vaccine in Israel are Higher risk and therefore more likely to be careful not to catch it.

In the trials, 5% of the Covid cases were in the vaccine cohort, but the size of the placebo group was identical. You have to adjust for the different size of the not vaccinated group.