Author Topic: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?  (Read 239301 times)

Offline cmey

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1320 on: July 19, 2020, 02:15:45 AM »
Sorry? Wouldnít you assume that a large majority of the 16.1% testing positive are from the 20% who were symptomatic, and a large percentage of the asymptomatic at a drive by site are people who were extremely exposed?

Remember, the initial Lakewood Bikur Cholim blood drive returned over 80% positive for antibodies, because they were symptomatic with exposure who all believed they had antibodies. If, as in Lakewood, 80% of the symptomatic people tested in Florida had antibodies, that would extrapolate to 16% without any of the asymptomatic testing positive at all.
Doesnít the average person test negative within 2-3 weeks after onset of symptoms? Antibodies donít start showing up in large numbers much before that. The would be some overlap, but not likely for the majority of patients

Offline S209

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1321 on: July 19, 2020, 04:26:57 AM »
Doesnít the average person test negative within 2-3 weeks after onset of symptoms? Antibodies donít start showing up in large numbers much before that. The would be some overlap, but not likely for the majority of patients
Iím not sure where youíre going with that. NY surpassed that level of antibodies at some point and Florida seems to be exceeding the surge NY saw. What are you pointing out?
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Offline cmey

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1322 on: July 19, 2020, 10:49:07 AM »
Iím not sure where youíre going with that. NY surpassed that level of antibodies at some point and Florida seems to be exceeding the surge NY saw. What are you pointing out?
I donít think NY State as a whole ever got much beyond that level. (Individual boroughs of NYC were in the 20ís). Perhaps that is an indication that Florida is peaking and will start on a downward trend, hopefully with a fraction of the deaths NY experienced...

Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1323 on: July 19, 2020, 10:58:26 AM »
Iím not sure where youíre going with that. NY surpassed that level of antibodies at some point and Florida seems to be exceeding the surge NY saw. What are you pointing out?
Exceeding the surge?? Hopefully Iím misunderstanding what you mean, but you really canít compare.

Offline S209

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1324 on: July 19, 2020, 04:20:43 PM »
Exceeding the surge?? Hopefully Iím misunderstanding what you mean, but you really canít compare.
What do you mean? Iím saying that Florida seems to be headed to more infections per capita than NYS had. They might be able to stop it by implementing restrictions, but it might be too late.
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Offline Yard sale

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1325 on: July 19, 2020, 10:18:55 PM »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/us/florida-residents-covid-19-parties.amp
Given that covid is likely going to run itís course rather than be halted by a shutdown in Florida since the governor doesnít appear to have any appetite for a lockdown, this may be a relatively good thing on balance if it results in the young population being infected in large numbers all at once....

Offline Jerseysteve

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1326 on: July 19, 2020, 10:29:24 PM »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/us/florida-residents-covid-19-parties.amp
Given that covid is likely going to run itís course rather than be halted by a shutdown in Florida since the governor doesnít appear to have any appetite for a lockdown, this may be a relatively good thing on balance if it results in the young population being infected in large numbers all at once....
Okay - I doubt when this thread was opened that this what anyone had in mind but........
« Last Edit: July 19, 2020, 10:40:21 PM by Jerseysteve »

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1327 on: July 19, 2020, 10:30:41 PM »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/us/florida-residents-covid-19-parties.amp
Given that covid is likely going to run itís course rather than be halted by a shutdown in Florida since the governor doesnít appear to have any appetite for a lockdown, this may be a relatively good thing on balance if it results in the young population being infected in large numbers all at once....

But when does it run its course? There are 20 million people in FL.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1328 on: July 19, 2020, 11:24:42 PM »
But when does it run its course? There are 20 million people in FL.
When they have 50k dead?  :-X
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Offline Barryg

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1329 on: July 19, 2020, 11:29:05 PM »
Okay - I doubt when this thread was opened that this what anyone had in mind but........
On ddf the good news can be found on the bad news thread (like getting twice thread) and on the good news thread there will be Q's and bad news. On that note, when I have extra time I should read the bash Trump threads to find out the real news.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1330 on: July 19, 2020, 11:41:37 PM »
...when I have extra time I should read the bash Trump threads to find out the real news.
That is called the good news thread.  :)
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Offline grodnoking

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1331 on: July 19, 2020, 11:48:40 PM »
But when does it run its course? There are 20 million people in FL.
Theres about 100,000 in Lakewood. I'm no good at statistics, but someone else can do the math. The amount of people who got it in Lakewood vs the population should show what percent you need for herd immunity.

Studies show that ~2 million in NYC were infected yet only ~400k were reported. Florida is at max testing capacity (theres a terrible backlog) so however many where tested there are many times more that where actually infected.

IMHO (and I actually mean humble, I'm just speculating) I'd say herd immunity is just about to set in and the "curve will flatten" - and go down real soon.

I know MANY people in Lakewood who didn't have antibodies, and have not been practicing social distancing (along with the rest of lakewood) for ~5 weeks now and still have not gotten it. Many people with people in the same house who've gotten it have not gotten it.

The biggest question I get from all this is, what is value of a human life? How much do you give up as a race to save lives? We can all live in shelter in our homes for the rest of our lives, not just to save people from this virus, but from any other too. From car crashes and from cancer from living in a smog filled city. Or we can walk around destroying our universe, bringing upon us all sorts of disease and death, but "living life to our fullest".
Obviously there is a middle ground that is right, but how do you determine that?
« Last Edit: July 19, 2020, 11:55:40 PM by grodnoking »
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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1332 on: July 20, 2020, 12:31:16 AM »
Theres about 100,000 in Lakewood. I'm no good at statistics, but someone else can do the math. The amount of people who got it in Lakewood vs the population should show what percent you need for herd immunity.
....

 herd immunity is just about to set in and the "curve will flatten" - and go down real soon.
Iran & Louisiana prove it can come back even after the fantasy of herd immunity

The biggest question I get from all this is, what is value of a human life? How much do you give up as a race to save lives? We can all live in shelter in our homes for the rest of our lives, not just to save people from this virus, but from any other too. From car crashes and from cancer from living in a smog filled city. Or we can walk around destroying our universe, bringing upon us all sorts of disease and death, but "living life to our fullest".
Obviously there is a middle ground that is right, but how do you determine that?


I agree with the question and started a dedicated thread about the topic, however in Jewish law there is not much that justifies a death (risk yes, absolute - rarely).
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1333 on: July 20, 2020, 12:51:16 AM »
What do you mean? Iím saying that Florida seems to be headed to more infections per capita than NYS had. They might be able to stop it by implementing restrictions, but it might be too late.
The positivity rate in NY was over 50 percent at the peak. If they were doing the amount of tests that Florida did it wouldnít be a comparable number.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1334 on: July 20, 2020, 09:19:13 AM »
I agree with the question and started a dedicated thread about the topic, however in Jewish law there is not much that justifies a death (risk yes, absolute - rarely).
Statistically guaranteed is not considered absolute.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Jerseysteve

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Offline S209

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1336 on: July 20, 2020, 12:13:49 PM »
Theres about 100,000 in Lakewood. I'm no good at statistics, but someone else can do the math. The amount of people who got it in Lakewood vs the population should show what percent you need for herd immunity.

Studies show that ~2 million in NYC were infected yet only ~400k were reported. Florida is at max testing capacity (theres a terrible backlog) so however many where tested there are many times more that where actually infected.

IMHO (and I actually mean humble, I'm just speculating) I'd say herd immunity is just about to set in and the "curve will flatten" - and go down real soon.

I know MANY people in Lakewood who didn't have antibodies, and have not been practicing social distancing (along with the rest of lakewood) for ~5 weeks now and still have not gotten it. Many people with people in the same house who've gotten it have not gotten it.
Florida had plenty of infected people coming in consistently before the spread became pandemic, and it took months before the spread got out of control. There is no evidence that Lakewood has had lots of infected people coming in. So far there have been about 20 known cases and all have been tested and isolated (as far as they know) so hopefully they didnít cause much damage. You can walk around unprotected all you want but unless there are infected people introduced youíll never know if thereís herd immunity. You canít assuming herd immunity because uninflected people are not getting infected by other uninflected people.

Iím not sure what you mean by herd immunity, but herd immunity wouldnít protect people from infected household members. Also, even if a place reaches the threshold for herd immunity the spread wonít stop while there is a critical mass of infected people, as the sheer amount of infection would negate the effects of immune people. First the number of infected would have to be lowered for herd immunity to protect the susceptible.

As far as Florida and NY testing, itís an interesting point that youíd be assuming just as many people in Florida are infected as NY but if positivity rate is what matters (which people have been saying for weeks as proof that there wasnít as much spread) then there are still less infected people in Florida than there were in NY although they definitely seem to be heading there.

The biggest question I get from all this is, what is value of a human life? How much do you give up as a race to save lives? We can all live in shelter in our homes for the rest of our lives, not just to save people from this virus, but from any other too. From car crashes and from cancer from living in a smog filled city. Or we can walk around destroying our universe, bringing upon us all sorts of disease and death, but "living life to our fullest".
Obviously there is a middle ground that is right, but how do you determine that?
This is a great question and has always been the only question. Itís also a decision we make consciously and unconsciously throughout our lives. Judaism and secular law probably donít have the exact same answer, and the answers vary depending on what the costs are and what the reward is. Some ethicists would throw in that it also depends on your personal connection to the potentially vulnerable (if you or a close family member were extremely vulnerable that changes your personal equation).

Fortunately, just about nobody in the US is ďlocked down foreverĒ so itís purely hypothetical.
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Offline Yard sale

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1337 on: July 20, 2020, 12:27:40 PM »
Florida had plenty of infected people coming in consistently before the spread became pandemic, and it took months before the spread got out of control. There is no evidence that Lakewood has had lots of infected people coming in. So far there have been about 20 known cases and all have been tested and isolated (as far as they know) so hopefully they didnít cause much damage. You can walk around unprotected all you want but unless there are infected people introduced youíll never know if thereís herd immunity. You canít assuming herd immunity because uninflected people are not getting infected by other uninflected people.

Iím not sure what you mean by herd immunity, but herd immunity wouldnít protect people from infected household members. Also, even if a place reaches the threshold for herd immunity the spread wonít stop while there is a critical mass of infected people, as the sheer amount of infection would negate the effects of immune people. First the number of infected would have to be lowered for herd immunity to protect the susceptible.

As far as Florida and NY testing, itís an interesting point that youíd be assuming just as many people in Florida are infected as NY but if positivity rate is what matters (which people have been saying for weeks as proof that there wasnít as much spread) then there are still less infected people in Florida than there were in NY although they definitely seem to be heading there.
This is a great question and has always been the only question. Itís also a decision we make consciously and unconsciously throughout our lives. Judaism and secular law probably donít have the exact same answer, and the answers vary depending on what the costs are and what the reward is. Some ethicists would throw in that it also depends on your personal connection to the potentially vulnerable (if you or a close family member were extremely vulnerable that changes your personal equation).

Fortunately, just about nobody in the US is ďlocked down foreverĒ so itís purely hypothetical.
Tose who were infected were circulating all over Lakewood when they still had peak viral load. The thousands of people in Lakewood who were in contact with the the 20 infected people in Lakewood and some of the 40 infected people from Deal were never quarantined or isolated. I know some of those in the day camp and they have been all over.....

Offline S209

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1338 on: July 20, 2020, 12:43:08 PM »
Tose who were infected were circulating all over Lakewood when they still had peak viral load. The thousands of people in Lakewood who were in contact with the the 20 infected people in Lakewood and some of the 40 infected people from Deal were never quarantined or isolated. I know some of those in the day camp and they have been all over.....
There were certainly far more than 20 infected people in Florida for months, but there was no extreme spread. Not every interaction with an infected person will result in an infection, and many infected people seem to shed very low doses. There seems to need to be a critical mass of introductions before it gains traction.

Also, there is no doubt that there is currently a very large amount of people with antibodies in Lakewood. The question is only if it is a high enough number for herd immunity.
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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1339 on: July 20, 2020, 01:09:45 PM »
Statistically guaranteed is not considered absolute.
Sure it is. אשו משום חציו & רוח מצויה
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים