Author Topic: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?  (Read 238850 times)

Offline S209

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1340 on: July 20, 2020, 01:14:12 PM »
Statistically guaranteed is not considered absolute.
Source?
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1341 on: July 20, 2020, 01:50:55 PM »
Sure it is. אשו משום חציו & רוח מצויה
To make sure we're on the same page, how does this apply to COVID?
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.


Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1343 on: July 20, 2020, 03:52:58 PM »
To make sure we're on the same page, how does this apply to COVID?
One example is somebody contagious going into a space where he is likely to infect somebody who is high risk. Another example is somebody who is high risk going into a space where there is a high likelihood of being infected.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline yaakov35

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1344 on: July 20, 2020, 03:55:37 PM »
One example is somebody contagious going into a space where he is likely to infect somebody who is high risk. Another example is somebody who is high risk going into a space where there is a high likelihood of being infected.
Still nowhere near a guarantee, at most its irresponsible.

Offline yaakov35

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1345 on: July 20, 2020, 03:55:59 PM »
To make sure we're on the same page, how does this apply to COVID?
Does not, he just pulled it out of a hat.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1346 on: July 20, 2020, 03:58:15 PM »
One example is somebody contagious going into a space where he is likely to infect somebody who is high risk. Another example is somebody who is high risk going into a space where there is a high likelihood of being infected.
I misunderstood, I thought you meant if everyone does xyz there it is statistically guaranteed that "someone" will die. That being said I think we agree that the overwhelming majority of what's being discussed here would fall under risk, not absolute.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1347 on: July 20, 2020, 04:00:02 PM »
Does not, he just pulled it out of a hat.
You are trying to accuse me of stating something irrelevant; but instead used a phrase describing something fabricated.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline yaakov35

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1348 on: July 20, 2020, 04:03:24 PM »
You are trying to accuse me of stating something irrelevant; but instead used a phrase describing something fabricated.
Sorry used the wrong terminology. In any case a רוח מצויה is guaranteed to be מזיק. That is not the case here by any stretch of the imagination. Yes its dumb, irresponsible and wrong. Yes people infect other people, but could you imagine how many cases there would be if every single person with corona gave it to someone else?.

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1349 on: July 20, 2020, 04:14:47 PM »
Sorry used the wrong terminology. In any case a רוח מצויה is guaranteed to be מזיק. That is not the case here by any stretch of the imagination. Yes its dumb, irresponsible and wrong. Yes people infect other people, but could you imagine how many cases there would be if every single person with corona gave it to someone else?.
Your posts never cease to amaze me. רוח מצויה means common, not guaranteed. Somebody who lights a fire is responsible for damage cause when any common wind transfers the fire, לא עלה על דעת that it needs to be Ďguaranteedí. In fact the Mahrsha points out that if a fire travels by its own means without the assistance of an outside force like wind (perhaps also with a guaranteed wind), itís אדם המזיק & one is chayav even without the גזירת הכתוב of אש.

So my point stands that an action that is likely to lead to harm (e.g. statically guaranteed) is in many ways treated the same halachically as absolute harm.

If every person with Corona would only infect one person, we would have far LESS cases. Unfortunately, most people with Corona infect a lot more than 1 person. The rate of transmission falls under 1 only when carriers are isolated and arenít exposed to people who arenít immune yet.

״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1350 on: July 20, 2020, 04:21:10 PM »
I misunderstood, I thought you meant if everyone does xyz there it is statistically guaranteed that "someone" will die. That being said I think we agree that the overwhelming majority of what's being discussed here would fall under risk, not absolute.
Thats a subjective definition. NY at the peak had 1 out of every 5-10 people infected, so think everybody would probably have a duty to isolate themselves, or at the very least wear a mask. I would think that even if 1/100 people are carriers it would be within the realms of רוח מצויה - like I would assume אבנו סכינו ומשאו שהניחו בראש גגו ונפלו ברוח מצויה חייב, would be Chayav even if itís a wind that comes 1/100 days.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1351 on: July 20, 2020, 04:39:20 PM »
Thats a subjective definition. NY at the peak had 1 out of every 5-10 people infected, so think everybody would probably have a duty to isolate themselves, or at the very least wear a mask. I would think that even if 1/100 people are carriers it would be within the realms of רוח מצויה - like I would assume אבנו סכינו ומשאו שהניחו בראש גגו ונפלו ברוח מצויה חייב, would be Chayav even if itís a wind that comes 1/100 days.
Assuming it's true that 1 in 5-10 were infected, only a fraction of them are actually contagious at any time. Even if someone knows they are infected and somehow they know they're contagious, they're still very unlikely to kill someone. Maybe you can argue that someone who knows he's infected should be considered a רוח מצויה, although I would think unless he goes among high risk people it shouldn't be.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline aygart

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1352 on: July 20, 2020, 04:52:43 PM »
In any case a רוח מצויה is guaranteed to be מזיק.
I hope these people who cannot understand that there are levels between lockdown and belittling someone who wears a mask has a better understanding of the gemara than he has regarding COVID.
Confirmed as a false hope. Oh well.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Yard sale

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1353 on: July 20, 2020, 05:13:47 PM »
There were certainly far more than 20 infected people in Florida for months, but there was no extreme spread. Not every interaction with an infected person will result in an infection, and many infected people seem to shed very low doses. There seems to need to be a critical mass of introductions before it gains traction.

Also, there is no doubt that there is currently a very large amount of people with antibodies in Lakewood. The question is only if it is a high enough number for herd immunity.
The problem is that you can never test the theory of herd immunity in Lakewood if the bar keeps changing. When shuls opened en masse, followed by schools over two months ago with no social distancing we were assured by some on this forum that Lakewood was not even close to herd immunity and we would likely see a surge of infections. When that didnít materialize we were told it was because there was no exposure in the community but once people started bringing it in from Florida it would rapidly spread. Now we have had lots of exposure and contact with no precautions but that still doesnít indicate herd immunity because we actually need a critical mass of spreaders to get anywhere.

How about we pick one benchmark and stick with it. To me it seems that we should take a look at where things go the next couple of weeks and if we donít see a massive wave of new home grown infections we can be reasonable sure that Lakewood has a decent amount of herd immunity. To be sure, if you manage to introduce a large amount of any virus be it measles, covid etc. into Lakewood there will be some limited spread as long as there are any non immune individuals. But thatís  not what herd immunity is about. Florida is a different story as it never had the opportunity to achieve herd immunity so it was a matter of the virus being present and people letting down their guard. That will continue to happen in other locales until a vaccine is introduced.

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1354 on: July 20, 2020, 05:25:21 PM »
The problem is that you can never test the theory of herd immunity in Lakewood if the bar keeps changing. When shuls opened en masse, followed by schools over two months ago with no social distancing we were assured by some on this forum that Lakewood was not even close to herd immunity and we would likely see a surge of infections. When that didnít materialize we were told it was because there was no exposure in the community but once people started bringing it in from Florida it would rapidly spread. Now we have had lots of exposure and contact with no precautions but that still doesnít indicate herd immunity because we actually need a critical mass of spreaders to get anywhere.

How about we pick one benchmark and stick with it. To me it seems that we should take a look at where things go the next couple of weeks and if we donít see a massive wave of new home grown infections we can be reasonable sure that Lakewood has a decent amount of herd immunity. To be sure, if you manage to introduce a large amount of any virus be it measles, covid etc. into Lakewood there will be some limited spread as long as there are any non immune individuals. But thatís  not what herd immunity is about. Florida is a different story as it never had the opportunity to achieve herd immunity so it was a matter of the virus being present and people letting down their guard. That will continue to happen in other locales until a vaccine is introduced.
Why is Lakewood safer than Iran & Louisiana?
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline yakov116

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1355 on: July 20, 2020, 05:35:59 PM »
Why is Lakewood safer than Iran & Louisiana?

Because everyone is a rabbi?
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1356 on: July 20, 2020, 05:39:05 PM »
Why is Lakewood safer than Iran & Louisiana?
The same reason NYC is safer than Albany.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline aygart

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1357 on: July 20, 2020, 05:44:51 PM »
The problem is that you can never test the theory of herd immunity in Lakewood if the bar keeps changing. When shuls opened en masse, followed by schools over two months ago with no social distancing we were assured by some on this forum that Lakewood was not even close to herd immunity and we would likely see a surge of infections. When that didnít materialize we were told it was because there was no exposure in the community but once people started bringing it in from Florida it would rapidly spread. Now we have had lots of exposure and contact with no precautions but that still doesnít indicate herd immunity because we actually need a critical mass of spreaders to get anywhere.

How about we pick one benchmark and stick with it. To me it seems that we should take a look at where things go the next couple of weeks and if we donít see a massive wave of new home grown infections we can be reasonable sure that Lakewood has a decent amount of herd immunity. To be sure, if you manage to introduce a large amount of any virus be it measles, covid etc. into Lakewood there will be some limited spread as long as there are any non immune individuals. But thatís  not what herd immunity is about. Florida is a different story as it never had the opportunity to achieve herd immunity so it was a matter of the virus being present and people letting down their guard. That will continue to happen in other locales until a vaccine is introduced.


I have a different idea. How about we don't make up our own goalposts for herd immunity and continue with life the way it is now, which is mostly back to normal, but keep in mind that we should not turn our brains off and be on the lookout for the chance that maybe there is not enough immunity to give a shtemple of herd immunity.  This way we will be on the lookout to catch any potential resurgence and nip it in the bud. This is what makes sense considering that we still do not know how much immunity is needed for herd immunity or what a resurgence would really look like. No need to go crazy, just keep our eyes open and our brains on.
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Offline Yard sale

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1358 on: July 20, 2020, 05:57:04 PM »
I have a different idea. How about we don't make up our own goalposts for herd immunity and continue with life the way it is now, which is mostly back to normal, but keep in mind that we should not turn our brains off and be on the lookout for the chance that maybe there is not enough immunity to give a shtemple of herd immunity.  This way we will be on the lookout to catch any potential resurgence and nip it in the bud. This is what makes sense considering that we still do not know how much immunity is needed for herd immunity or what a resurgence would really look like. No need to go crazy, just keep our eyes open and our brains on.

Thatís a reasonable approach. Thereís no guarantee of herd immunity. Itís not out of the realm of possibility that we experience a resurgence. But thereís a risk/ reward ratio that should take every data point into account. There was one reality before pesach, and a very different reality now. At this point the data is such that it is unreasonable to be convinced that a second wave is lurking behind every bend, and it must be that we are missing just one more ingredient to trigger it.

 It is certainly reasonable for contingency plans to be in place and basic precautions that are simple to implement and donít inconvenience anyone be implemented (BYW wearing a mask into Target today in 110 realfeel temps was horribly uncomfortable not just a minor inconvenience) and of course those who are vulnerable should be exercising more caution than the general population, but acting as if Lakewood is Iran is not what we ought to be doing right now.

3 new cases today per OCHD. Number has been between 0 and 3 for a few days.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2020, 06:08:02 PM by Yard sale »

Offline aygart

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1359 on: July 20, 2020, 06:11:13 PM »
Thatís a reasonable approach. Thereís no guarantee of herd immunity. Itís not out of the realm of possibility that we experience a resurgence. But thereís a risk/ reward ratio that should take every data point into account. There was one reality before pesach, and a very different reality now. At this point the data is such that it is unreasonable to be convinced that a second wave is lurking behind every bend, and it must be that we are missing just one more ingredient to trigger it.

 It is certainly reasonable for contingency plans to be in place and basic precautions that are simple to implement and donít inconvenience anyone be implemented (BYW wearing a mask into Target today in 110 realfeel temps was horribly uncomfortable not just a minor inconvenience) and of course those who are vulnerable should be exercising more caution than the general population, but acting as if Lakewood is Iran is not what we ought to be doing right now.

3 new cases today per OCHD. Number has been between 0 and 3 for a few days.

Sounds like we are mostly in agreement :)

One important item IMHO is that people not be stupid. For example, someone who goes to a hotspot should not be going to a full shul with no mask for 2 weeks (or whatever time they are now saying). These types of things can keep Lakewood with its low case count and hopefully avoid a resurgence and the harsher measure that come with that.
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