Author Topic: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?  (Read 57703 times)

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #345 on: March 31, 2020, 09:38:39 AM »
But they weren't testing everyone yesterday or the day before either. Unless you think they are testing fewer people, the rate of infection is not useless

So because testing was random before and it's random now, the numbers magically correlate to meaningful data? They are absolutely testing fewer people. They're telling you stay at home and don't move unless you can't breathe. That's a lot of infected people not getting tested.
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #346 on: March 31, 2020, 09:43:02 AM »
CNN: Some good news: Rate of increase of new coronavirus cases appears to be slowing in New York.

An analysis of CNN's count shows that average rate of day-over-day increase for the last seven days was 17% - compared to 58% for the previous seven-day period.

In other news, NY stopped testing as much. Positive tests are growing faster than overall. The good news is that the growth in hospitalizations and deaths is slowing down. And last Thursday was a real disaster apparently. See data I put together based on https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york/#history

Offline aygart

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #347 on: March 31, 2020, 09:43:22 AM »
That's some pretty funky math. Forget percentages. Look at the number of deaths. That's the only real number. If you were able to accurately get the number of hospital beds + vents still available, that would also be relevant. Everything else is garbage.
That is a lagging indicator
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Offline aygart

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #348 on: March 31, 2020, 09:45:16 AM »
In other news, NY stopped testing as much. Positive tests are growing faster than overall. The good news is that the growth in hospitalizations and deaths is slowing down. And last Thursday was a real disaster apparently. See data I put together based on https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york/#history
Which of those are daily and which are cumulative?
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #349 on: March 31, 2020, 09:48:58 AM »
Which of those are daily and which are cumulative?

Starting from left to right - "Positive" column is cumulative, next column is the new positive cases for that day, next is the % increase day over day. Same for the rest of sheet basically.

Attached the sheet here.

Offline aygart

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The thing with the hamster is that running on the wheel is actually what it is trying to do.

Offline Yammer

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Offline aygart

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #352 on: March 31, 2020, 01:55:09 PM »
Major game changer
Yes. especially since it is an antibody test.
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Offline aygart

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #353 on: March 31, 2020, 07:03:17 PM »
Starting from left to right - "Positive" column is cumulative, next column is the new positive cases for that day, next is the % increase day over day. Same for the rest of sheet basically.

Attached the sheet here.
Do you have a similar sheet for China with daily new cases/deaths/ICU admissions?
The thing with the hamster is that running on the wheel is actually what it is trying to do.

Offline yuneeq

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Offline aygart

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #355 on: April 01, 2020, 12:09:01 AM »
The thing with the hamster is that running on the wheel is actually what it is trying to do.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #356 on: April 01, 2020, 12:21:26 AM »
Do you have a similar sheet for China with daily new cases/deaths/ICU admissions?

Wait, you were serious? You want numbers and charts from China? Lol
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Offline aygart

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #357 on: April 01, 2020, 12:25:51 AM »
Wait, you were serious? You want numbers and charts from China? Lol
Yes with the knowledge that they are a bunch of bunk.
The thing with the hamster is that running on the wheel is actually what it is trying to do.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #358 on: April 01, 2020, 12:29:37 AM »
Yes with the knowledge that they are a bunch of bunk.
So then what's the point? Just make up your own numbers. You may end up closer to the real numbers than anything you can pull online.
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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #359 on: April 01, 2020, 12:30:46 AM »
So then what's the point? Just make up your own numbers. You may end up closer to the real numbers than anything you can pull online.
If I see what I think I will then I will show you.
The thing with the hamster is that running on the wheel is actually what it is trying to do.