Author Topic: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?  (Read 218286 times)

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #140 on: March 23, 2020, 11:10:26 AM »
Your caption says masks but the tweet seems to say respirators. 500k respirators?!

ETA: Today I learned that face masks are called “temporary respirators”, please tell me I’m not the only one who only realized this now.

They're known as disposable respirators
Visibly Jewish

Offline sddd

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Offline zale

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Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #143 on: March 23, 2020, 11:30:27 AM »
Can you copy and paste the full article? It's behind a paywall.
Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: ‘We’re going to be fine’

By Joe MozingoStaff Writer
March 22, 2020
2:03 PM

Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.

Now he foresees a similar outcome in the United States and the rest of the world.

While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don’t support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.

“What we need is to control the panic,” he said. In the grand scheme, “we’re going to be fine.”

Here’s what Levitt noticed in China: On Jan. 31, the country had 46 new deaths due to the novel coronavirus, compared with 42 new deaths the day before.

Although the number of daily deaths had increased, the rate of that increase had begun to ease off. Essentially, although the car was still speeding up, it was not accelerating as rapidly as before.

“This suggests that the rate of increase in number of the deaths will slow down even more over the next week,” Levitt wrote in a report he sent to friends Feb. 1 that was widely shared on Chinese social media. And soon, he predicted, the number of deaths would be decreasing every day.

Three weeks later, Levitt told the China Daily News that the virus’ rate of growth had peaked. He predicted that the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China would end up around 80,000, with about 3,250 deaths.

This forecast turned out to be remarkably accurate: As of March 16, China had counted a total of 80,298 cases and 3,245 deaths — in a nation of nearly 1.4 billion people where roughly 10 million die every year. The number of newly diagnosed patients has dropped to around 25 a day, with no cases of community spread reported since Wednesday.

Now Levitt, who received the 2013 Nobel Prize in chemistry for developing complex models of chemical systems, is seeing similar turning points in other nations, even ones that did not instill the draconian isolation measures that China did.

He analyzed 78 countries with more than 50 reported cases of COVID-19 every day and sees “signs of recovery.” He’s not looking at cumulative cases, but the number of new cases every day — and the percentage growth in that number from one day to the next.

In Iran, for instance, the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases remained relatively flat last week, from 1,133 on Monday to 1,148 on Friday.

Of course, recovering from an initial outbreak doesn’t mean the virus won’t come back: China is now fighting to stop new waves of infection coming in from places where the virus is spreading out of control. Other countries are bound to face the same problem as well.

Levitt acknowledges that his figures are messy, and that the official case counts in many areas are too low because testing is spotty. But even with incomplete data, “a consistent decline means there’s some factor at work that is not just noise in the numbers,” he said.

The trajectory of deaths backs up his findings, he said. So do data from outbreaks in confined environments, such as the one on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Out of 3,711 people on board, 712 were infected and eight died. In his view, this unintended experiment in coronavirus spread will help researchers estimate the number of fatalities that would occur in a fully infected population.

Levitt said the social-distancing mandates are critical — particularly the ban on large gatherings — because the virus is so new that the population has no immunity to it and a vaccine is still many months away. “This is not the time to go out drinking with your buddies.”

Getting vaccinated against the flu is important because a coronavirus outbreak that strikes in the middle of a flu epidemic is much more likely to overwhelm hospitals and increases the odds that the coronavirus goes undetected. This was probably a factor in Italy, a country with a strong anti-vaccine movement, he said.

But he also blames the media for causing unnecessary panic by focusing on the relentless increase in the cumulative number of cases and spotlighting celebrities who contract the virus. By contrast, the flu has sickened 36 million Americans since September and killed an estimated 22,000, according to the CDC, but those deaths are largely unreported.

He fears the public health measures that have shut down large swaths of the economy could cause their own health catastrophe, as lost jobs lead to poverty and hopelessness. Time and again, researchers have seen that suicide rates go up when the economy spirals down.

The virus can grow exponentially only when it is undetected and no one is acting to control it, Levitt said. That’s what happened in South Korea, when it ripped through a closed-off cult that refused to report the illness.

“People need to be considered heroes for announcing they have this virus,” he said.

The goal needs to be better early detection — not just through testing but perhaps with body temperature surveillance, which China is implementing — and immediate social isolation.

While the COVID-19 fatality rate appears to be significantly higher than that of the flu, Levitt says it is quite simply put, “not the end of the world.”

Based on the experience of the Diamond Princess, he estimates that being exposed to the new coronavirus doubles a person’s risk of dying in the next two months. However, most people have an extremely low risk of death in a two-month period, and that risk remains extremely low even when doubled.

“The real situation is not as nearly as terrible as they make it out to be,” he said.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline chevron

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #144 on: March 23, 2020, 11:47:33 AM »
This is certainly great news. however,

See how he emphasises social distancing

New York City is way behind, the outbreak has mushroomed .

I'm sure there was hope if there can be containment.

How many korbanos will it cost?

Basically they have to stop the spread. They need to have enough supplies to deal with the sick people, assuming and hoping for medicine help and treatment.

NY and NJ is spread way more than China.


Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #145 on: March 23, 2020, 01:30:46 PM »
New York City is way behind...
Coast to coast we are way behind. Just look at your moron governor keeping the beaches open.
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Offline Dan

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #146 on: March 23, 2020, 02:36:33 PM »
Italy new deaths and new cases have dropped for 2 days in a row.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline etech0

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #147 on: March 23, 2020, 02:37:38 PM »
Quote
Vitamin D May help Prevent Contracting Coronavirus
Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden Tells Fox News - Coronavirus Risk May Be Reduced By Vitamin D: As we race to develop effective treatments and a vaccine against COVID-19, people are looking to reduce their risk of getting sick. One thing that might help is as obvious as the sun in the sky and as close as your medicine cabinet – Vitamin D.



Higher COVID-19 mortality rates among older people and those with chronic conditions suggest that a weakened immune system contributes to poor outcomes. There are many crackpot claims about miracle cures floating around, but the science supports the possibility – although not the proof – that Vitamin D may strengthen the immune system, particularly of people whose Vitamin D levels are low.



Vitamin D supplementation reduces the risk of respiratory infection, regulates cytokine production and can limit the risk of other viruses such as influenza. A respiratory infection can result in cytokine storms – a vicious cycle in which our inflammatory cells damage organs throughout the body – which increase mortality for those with COVID-19. Adequate Vitamin D may potentially provide some modest protection for vulnerable populations.

Workflowy. You won't know what you're missing until you try it.

Offline chevron

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #148 on: March 23, 2020, 03:01:44 PM »
Coast to coast we are way behind. Just look at your moron governor keeping the beaches open.

But vitamin d and sunshine is good for you ;)

Offline Luvisrael

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Offline yitzgar

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Offline Dan

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #151 on: March 23, 2020, 08:47:06 PM »
Hold my Corona.....I'll be right over!
ftfy
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline good sam

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #152 on: March 23, 2020, 11:59:45 PM »
I have not had a cigarette in 8 days
If you don't care why would you comment?
HT: DMYD

Offline Luvisrael

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #153 on: March 24, 2020, 12:16:18 AM »
I have not had a cigarette in 8 days
good for you. Prob bad for others ;)

Offline good sam

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #154 on: March 24, 2020, 12:21:59 AM »
good for you. Prob bad for others ;)
Na I'm fine, I'm not heavily dependent on them. I'm glad I was forced to stop temporarily because I'm concerned about the capacity of my lungs to withstand the virus
If you don't care why would you comment?
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Offline ltttc

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #155 on: March 24, 2020, 12:26:28 AM »
Na I'm fine, I'm not heavily dependent on them. I'm glad I was forced to stop temporarily because I'm concerned about the capacity of my lungs to withstand the virus
Good for you! Don't know who you are but I'm cheering you on and proud of u!

Offline TimT

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #156 on: March 24, 2020, 12:29:04 AM »
On this note: Much less second-hand smoke around

Offline good sam

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #157 on: March 24, 2020, 12:29:36 AM »
Good for you! Don't know who you are but I'm cheering you on and proud of u!
Lol thanks
If you don't care why would you comment?
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Offline chevron

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Offline chevron

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #159 on: March 24, 2020, 12:32:14 AM »
This should also help people breathe better :)