Author Topic: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?  (Read 57049 times)

Offline ari3

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #165 on: March 24, 2020, 02:31:27 PM »
Most of our communities have been more or less quarantined since Thursday or so. While unfortunately there are a number of serious cases (and even deaths ל"ע) and many many people have less severe cases, still I think it's not nearly as bad as the doomsday predictions were.
One would think with most people being in quarantine for 5 days or so we should be peaking with the new cases soon.
Just my thoughts fwiw.
Refua sheleima to all

Offline aygart

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #166 on: March 24, 2020, 02:36:21 PM »
https://www.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd8-11ea-89df-41bea055720b
The main point is that the, although the effects of the virus are severe for many, Oxford U researchers feel that it has spread MUCH more than we are hearing and that this is a good thing. By it having spread so much it can cause herd immunity which can help bring down the virus.
(All those who shun vaccines because they "are not animals in a herd" are welcome to remain quarantined for longer)
« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 02:42:03 PM by aygart »
The thing with the hamster is that running on the wheel is actually what it is trying to do.

Offline Dan

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Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #168 on: March 24, 2020, 02:40:22 PM »
Paywall
The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.

The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.

However, she was reluctant to criticise the government for shutting down the country to suppress viral spread, because the accuracy of the Oxford model has not yet been confirmed and, even if it is correct, social distancing will reduce the number of people becoming seriously ill and relieve severe pressure on the NHS during the peak of the epidemic.

The Oxford study is based on a what is known as a “susceptibility-infected-recovered model” of Covid-19, built up from case and death reports from the UK and Italy. The researchers made what they regard as the most plausible assumptions about the behaviour of the virus.

The modelling brings back into focus “herd immunity”, the idea that the virus will stop spreading when enough people have become resistant to it because they have already been infected. The government abandoned its unofficial herd immunity strategy — allowing controlled spread of infection — after its scientific advisers said this would swamp the National Health Service with critically ill patients.

But the Oxford results would mean the country had already acquired substantial herd immunity through the unrecognised spread of Covid-19 over more than two months. If the findings are confirmed by testing, then the current restrictions could be removed much sooner than ministers have indicated.

Although some experts have shed doubt on the strength and length of the human immune response to the virus, Prof Gupta said the emerging evidence made her confident that humanity would build up herd immunity against Covid-19.

To provide the necessary evidence, the Oxford group is working with colleagues at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to start antibody testing on the general population as soon as possible, using specialised “neutralisation assays which provide reliable readout of protective immunity,” Prof Gupta said. They hope to start testing later this week and obtain preliminary results within a few days.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline aygart

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The thing with the hamster is that running on the wheel is actually what it is trying to do.

Offline Dan

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Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline YossieW

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Offline dealfinder11

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Offline dealfinder11

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #173 on: March 24, 2020, 11:39:12 PM »
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Offline aygart

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #174 on: March 25, 2020, 11:39:28 AM »
The thing with the hamster is that running on the wheel is actually what it is trying to do.

Offline chevron

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #175 on: March 25, 2020, 02:43:30 PM »
This study is showing that many more than we thought are infected and at the symptoms are mostly nothing are encouraging but I feel that this gives people false sense of freedom.

First and foremost like we discussed in the past that it is targeting people who otherwise were thought healthy and they are struggling and that doesn't include the elderly or people with underlying medical conditions

Also I would probably say that we could go back to normal if we had the proper facilities to treat people who are going to get infected in masses

I have a lot of unanswered questions

Offline jose34

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #176 on: March 25, 2020, 04:33:00 PM »
How quarantining works - Chief Rabbi of Beijing: Things are getting back to normal

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/277806

Offline jose34

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #177 on: March 25, 2020, 04:34:11 PM »
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 04:37:49 PM by jose34 »

Offline Ergel

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #178 on: March 25, 2020, 05:36:48 PM »
How quarantining works - Chief Rabbi of Beijing: Things are getting back to normal

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/277806

Quote
We asked Rabbi Freundlich if the warmer spring weather is partially responsible for the improved situation. “Well, to an extent, the virus is like a food item that can be preserved in the refrigerator but spoils if left out. When a virus is in cooler surroundings, it finds it easier to take hold, and when it’s warmer, it’s harder for it to survive outside a human host. Similarly, if someone coughs or sneezes when the weather’s cold, the virus can remain suspended in the air for up to sixty seconds. When it’s warmer, it falls to the ground much more quickly. But that doesn’t mean that the danger’s over,” he warns. “It’s still around, and we still have to be careful.”
::) I guess now he is a viral disease expert?
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Offline incendia

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #179 on: March 25, 2020, 06:00:39 PM »
The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.


If it infected the 1st half of the population without overwhelming the ICU's than there is no reason to believe the 2nd half of the population will overwhelm the ICU's.

This wasn't the case for Italy and it doesn't look like the case for NY. I doubt the UK will be different.