Author Topic: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?  (Read 218133 times)

Offline Jerseysteve

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #940 on: May 21, 2020, 09:41:33 PM »
Hamodia
By Shmuel Smith
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
Isaac Ben-Israel, chairman of Israel’s Space Agency and a prominent mathematician, told The Times of Israel on Thursday that his prediction about the trajectory of the coronavirus has been confirmed by events.

Ben-Israel said a month ago that the virus will run its course and fade out in 70 days regardless of the state’s response, a statement that was not accepted by health professionals, who continued the regime of quarantines and distancing.

His analysis of the data of the disease’s spread led him to the conclusion that COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and drops to almost zero after 70 days, and has derided the “hysteria…as contagious as biological diseases.”

On April 19, he wrote that “it turns out that the peak of the virus’s spread has been behind us for about two weeks now, and will probably fade within two more weeks.”

On May 2, the number of newly infected people per day dropped to under 100 for the first time since late March, and health officials have taken it as a sign that it’s safe to restart the economy.

Still, there are warnings that there could be a resurgence of the coronavirus and a re-imposition of quarantines and shutdowns.

“It’s very amusing that people talk about a second wave. How do they know there will be a second wave? And how do they know that it will come in the winter?”

While Ben-Israel’s expertise is in mathematics and security matters, and he has no medical background, he asserts that it’s irrelevant. The numbers, he says, reveals the pattern of the virus’s spread, and that lockdowns are “unnecessary no matter what,” have been a needless disruption to life and a waste of money.

Furthermore, he argues that there is no direct link between the rate of infection and the number of fatalities.

“There is a natural assumption that fewer infections means fewer deaths but it’s not correct,” he said. “There is no explainable relationship between the number of people infected and the number of people who die. The ratio between deaths and infections differs sometimes by a factor of 100 or more between different countries.”

Offline aygart

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #941 on: May 21, 2020, 09:50:35 PM »



“There is a natural assumption that fewer infections means fewer deaths but it’s not correct,” he said. “There is no explainable relationship between the number of people infected and the number of people who die. The ratio between deaths and infections differs sometimes by a factor of 100 or more between different countries.”
Are these numbers true?
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Offline Zevwolf

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #943 on: May 21, 2020, 10:28:18 PM »
Hamodia
By Shmuel Smith
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
Isaac Ben-Israel, chairman of Israel’s Space Agency and a prominent mathematician, told The Times of Israel on Thursday that his prediction about the trajectory of the coronavirus has been confirmed by events.
I didn't want to quote the whole thing, but it sounds like this guy has a more than healthy amount of hubris.

Offline Barryg

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Offline S209

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Offline yuneeq

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #946 on: May 22, 2020, 12:22:14 AM »
Or the travel between them and their styles of living and working or many other variables

The Spanish flu traveled the world pretty quickly, I don’t think corona has a problem with travel 100 years later. If anything the places with slums should have major outbreaks once you have just a few people infected. Look at test numbers if you want to look at numbers.
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Offline Barryg

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #947 on: May 22, 2020, 02:27:46 AM »
Why is this good news??
The fact that over 1700 people died in OH from Covid isn't good news, but that number was known before the article. IF "at least 1,247 patients of nursing homes and other long-term care facilities have died with coronavirus" that leaves "at most" 500 Covid deaths in OH - which has over 11 million people. They should do some heavy research in Florida (or just do the opposite of whatever NY was doing) put some focus into stopping the spread in nursing homes.
The original reason I thought this belonged in the good news thread is that we are acting (and will continue to take precautions) as we are living in a Magaifa. If the death rate outside of nursing homes is .005% including assumed Covid deaths then to me it fits in the good news section.

Offline aygart

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #948 on: May 22, 2020, 08:15:12 AM »
Why is this good news??
That the vast majority of deaths are from one setting which is mostly controllable?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Jerseysteve

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #949 on: May 22, 2020, 10:52:36 AM »
The fact that over 1700 people died in OH from Covid isn't good news, but that number was known before the article. IF "at least 1,247 patients of nursing homes and other long-term care facilities have died with coronavirus" that leaves "at most" 500 Covid deaths in OH - which has over 11 million people. They should do some heavy research in Florida (or just do the opposite of whatever NY was doing) put some focus into stopping the spread in nursing homes.
The original reason I thought this belonged in the good news thread is that we are acting (and will continue to take precautions) as we are living in a Magaifa. If the death rate outside of nursing homes is .005% including assumed Covid deaths then to me it fits in the good news section.
Agreed - Also add the numbers in OH from prisons and b"h we are left with very little.

Offline KSMH

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #951 on: May 23, 2020, 10:43:53 PM »
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/study-suggests-majority-population-may-already-have-some-degree

This quotes the study @Afrages6 posted here. I have a few questions about that study.


First, if up to 60% of people are immune, and up to 20% of people got it in NY, does that mean half of the possible infections happened within 2 months? What does that say about how contagious this thing actually is versus how contagious we thought it was?


Second, the cell they say they found in up to 60% of people without Covid was found in 100% of Covid patients. How do they know these people didn't already have the cell pre-Covid and still got sick? Without before and after testing, what does the cell's presence prove, if up to 60% of all people have it regardless of Covid infection?
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Online Afrages6

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #952 on: May 23, 2020, 11:00:25 PM »
This quotes the study @Afrages6 posted here. I have a few questions about that study.


First, if up to 60% of people are immune, and up to 20% of people got it in NY, does that mean half of the possible infections happened within 2 months? What does that say about how contagious this thing actually is versus how contagious we thought it was?


Second, the cell they say they found in up to 60% of people without Covid was found in 100% of Covid patients. How do they know these people didn't already have the cell pre-Covid and still got sick? Without before and after testing, what does the cell's presence prove, if up to 60% of all people have it regardless of Covid infection?

I believe that the unexposed blood cells were from pre COVID days. Saw somewhere that blood cells from 2015 were immune because of the T cells.

It does make sense theoretically that it spread the way it did in NYC and 75-80 percent of NYC was exposed to the virus. It was percolating for at least a month before everyone caught on and you’re talking about the most dense area in the world. Subways, restaurants, offices.

Offline KSMH

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Offline KSMH

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #954 on: May 24, 2020, 03:36:51 PM »
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32405162/?fbclid=IwAR3lpo_jjq7MRsoIXgzmjjGREL7lzW22XeRRk0NO_Y7rvVl150e4CbMo0cg

"We report here a case of the asymptomatic patient and present clinical characteristics of 455 contacts, which aims to study the infectivity of asymptomatic carriers."


"Conclusion: In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak."
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Offline aygart

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #955 on: May 24, 2020, 04:03:00 PM »
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32405162/?fbclid=IwAR3lpo_jjq7MRsoIXgzmjjGREL7lzW22XeRRk0NO_Y7rvVl150e4CbMo0cg

"We report here a case of the asymptomatic patient and present clinical characteristics of 455 contacts, which aims to study the infectivity of asymptomatic carriers."


"Conclusion: In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak."
This is great news and consistent with the super spreader concept that Dan mentioned
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Offline ari3

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #956 on: May 24, 2020, 04:54:54 PM »
This quotes the study @Afrages6 posted here. I have a few questions about that study.


First, if up to 60% of people are immune, and up to 20% of people got it in NY, does that mean half of the possible infections happened within 2 months? What does that say about how contagious this thing actually is versus how contagious we thought it was?


Second, the cell they say they found in up to 60% of people without Covid was found in 100% of Covid patients. How do they know these people didn't already have the cell pre-Covid and still got sick? Without before and after testing, what does the cell's presence prove, if up to 60% of all people have it regardless of Covid infection?
I think the key here is "some degree of immunity" meaning they could still catch the virus but be better equipped to fight it. That may go a long way in explaining why some people get only mild symptoms and some get very severe symtomps

Offline points 99

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Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #958 on: May 24, 2020, 06:37:30 PM »
I think the key here is "some degree of immunity" meaning they could still catch the virus but be better equipped to fight it. That may go a long way in explaining why some people get only mild symptoms and some get very severe symtomps

Unless they had an underlying comorbidity they didn't know about. Or a myriad of other variables.
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Offline Ergel

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #959 on: May 25, 2020, 03:41:44 AM »
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/280793
.26% death rate

If that's the case, then 28K deaths in NY means nearly 11 million infections!?!? which should mean 50% antibody rates. But that's not what the numbers say?
And 100K deaths in the US means 38 million infections?

And Sweden's 4K deaths should mean 1.5 million infections, so why is there antibody levels in Stockholm only 7%

Something doesn't add up
« Last Edit: May 25, 2020, 03:45:13 AM by Ergel »
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