Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?

[biobook]

Why do you think a  high percentage of the NY Jewish community has a high percentage of covid vulnerable people?
Looking up and down my block, I  counted all young, healthy people, plus those who already had covid vs those older, quarantining people.
I got less than 20% still needing quarantine.
What area do you live in?  Do you have so many more people who are still in a position to catch it for whom it would be dangerous?

@ckmk47 I agree that we'll never know the health of the entire Jewish community, and we have to figure this out by looking at a smaller sample.  You've looked at the sample of your own block, where less than 20% of people are vulnerable.

I heard from someone living in a 55+ area of Lakewood that nobody on her block had covid, so 100% are still vulnerable.

It's likely that neither of these two blocks are representative of the Jewish community in general, but with no other data, we could settle on an average of 50-60% still being vulnerable, either because of their own health condition, or because they live with someone more vulnerable. 

You said yesterday "It's time to open completely and let the vulnerable population decide their own risk tolerance."  So my questions to you are these:

If society opens completely, and 50% of people feel that it's too risky to mingle again in society, can the opened-up society flourish? 

If a restaurant or barber or clothing store re-opens, but only 50% of former customers return, will the business survive?

[ckmk47]

I'm assuming they'll have a better chance of flourishing than if they stay closed.

[CountValentine]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/two-missouri-hairstylists-who-had-coronavirus-saw-140-clients-but-no-one-got-infected/ar-BB15kqzS?ocid=spartanntp

[Jerseysteve]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2020/05/20/the-man-betting-1-billion-that-pfizer-can-deliver-a-vaccine-by-this-fall/#6cd42ef8382e

[Jerseysteve]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-masks-study/widespread-mask-wearing-could-prevent-covid-19-second-waves-study-idUSKBN23G37V

[avromie7]

@ckmk47 I agree that we'll never know the health of the entire Jewish community, and we have to figure this out by looking at a smaller sample.  You've looked at the sample of your own block, where less than 20% of people are vulnerable.

I heard from someone living in a 55+ area of Lakewood that nobody on her block had covid, so 100% are still vulnerable.

It's likely that neither of these two blocks are representative of the Jewish community in general, but with no other data, we could settle on an average of 50-60% still being vulnerable, either because of their own health condition, or because they live with someone more vulnerable. 

You said yesterday "It's time to open completely and let the vulnerable population decide their own risk tolerance."  So my questions to you are these:

If society opens completely, and 50% of people feel that it's too risky to mingle again in society, can the opened-up society flourish? 

If a restaurant or barber or clothing store re-opens, but only 50% of former customers return, will the business survive?

Why should the government be making the decision for them?

[biobook]

Why should the government be making the decision for them?

I'm interested in you, not the government. 

Would you rush to re-open a business, if you knew that only half of your former customers would show up?

[avromie7]

I'm interested in you, not the government. 

Would you rush to re-open a business, if you knew that only half of your former customers would show up?

Of course, why not? Unless the cost of operation minus fixed costs (rent etc.) is more than the business can make with half the customers why wouldn't they open?

[etech0]

Of course, why not? Unless the cost of operation minus fixed costs (rent etc.) is more than the business can make with half the customers why wouldn't they open?

I guess it's a decision each business can make on their own, assuming the government allows it.

Just like some parents may choose not to send their children to camp, but that doesn't mean we need the government to ban them.

[etech0]

Unless the cost of operation minus fixed costs (rent etc.) is more than the business can make with half the customers

And if that's the case they may be able to make adjustments. Open for fewer hours, by appointment, etc. Give people a chance to figure things out and they can come up with solutions.

[biobook]

Of course, why not? Unless the cost of operation minus fixed costs (rent etc.) is more than the business can make with half the customers why wouldn't they open?

Because half the customers will bring in half the revenue, which might not cover the costs. Or might not produce enough profit to justify the continuation of the business.

[etech0]

Because half the customers will bring in half the revenue, which might not cover the costs. Or might not produce enough profit to justify the continuation of the business.

Is that worse than what's happening now?

[biobook]

And if that's the case they may be able to make adjustments. Open for fewer hours, by appointment, etc. Give people a chance to figure things out and they can come up with solutions.

Yes, I agree! 

People have to figure things out now, and try to come up with solutions, so that once the government gives the green light, they'll have those plans in place.

I see a lot of calls for "let's open up right now!" but not a lot of thought being given to how that opening up will have to proceed. 

[aygart]

Because half the customers will bring in half the revenue, which might not cover the costs. Or might not produce enough profit to justify the continuation of the business.

So who should make that decision?

[etech0]

Yes, I agree! 

People have to figure things out now, and try to come up with solutions, so that once the government gives the green light, they'll have those plans in place.

I see a lot of calls for "let's open up right now!" but not a lot of thought being given to how that opening up will have to proceed.

How do you know the businesses who are asking to reopen don't have a plan yet?

[avromie7]

Because half the customers will bring in half the revenue, which might not cover the costs. Or might not produce enough profit to justify the continuation of the business.

Every business will make this decision for themselves. As @etech0 said, they can reduce hours etc., but that decision should remain up to them.

Yes, I agree! 

People have to figure things out now, and try to come up with solutions, so that once the government gives the green light, they'll have those plans in place.

I see a lot of calls for "let's open up right now!" but not a lot of thought being given to how that opening up will have to proceed. 

I don't think business owners are looking for comments from the peanut gallery on how to open their business back up, they make their own decisions based on their personal situation.

[biobook]

Every business will make this decision for themselves. As @etech0 said, they can reduce hours etc., but that decision should remain up to them. I don't think business owners are looking for comments from the peanut gallery on how to open their business back up, they make their own decisions based on their personal situation.

Oh.  I had assumed that posters who were advocating for rapidly re-opening businesses were themselves business owners.  If you're not, then why do you think society should re-open quickly?

[AsherO]

Oh.  I had assumed that posters who were advocating for rapidly re-opening businesses were themselves business owners.  If you're not, then why do you think society should re-open quickly?

Do I have to be a business owner to understand the economic impact of businesses staying closed?

(Not advocating for or against, just suggesting another perspective)

[biobook]

Do I have to be a business owner to understand the economic impact of businesses staying closed?

(Not advocating for or against, just suggesting another perspective)

Right, my previous post was to suggest that discussion of the economic impact of businesses staying closed or re-opening soon needs to take into account the readiness of customers to return to those businesses. 

[ckmk47]

Right, my previous post was to suggest that discussion of the economic impact of businesses staying closed or re-opening soon needs to take into account the readiness of customers to return to those businesses.

The customers are ready!
Maybe not all, but those who already had covid, those at low risk, and those throwing caution to the wind.