Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?

[SSLPhD]

Sounds like we are mostly in agreement

One important item IMHO is that people not be stupid. For example, someone who goes to a hotspot should not be going to a full shul with no mask for 2 weeks (or whatever time they are now saying). These types of things can keep Lakewood with its low case count and hopefully avoid a resurgence and the harsher measure that come with that.

What would you say to/about someone that has antibodies, went to a hotspot and believes it's OK to go to shul? OK or not?

[avromie7]

What would you say to/about someone that has antibodies, went to a hotspot and believes it's OK to go to shul? OK or not?

In the real world, telling people coming back from FL to stay home for 2 weeks is not going to happen. If you want any hope of keeping people coming back from FL somewhat contained you need to be practical.

[aygart]

What would you say to/about someone that has antibodies, went to a hotspot and believes it's OK to go to shul? OK or not?

In the real world, telling people coming back from FL to stay home for 2 weeks is not going to happen. If you want any hope of keeping people coming back from FL somewhat contained you need to be practical.

Note that I didn't say not to go to shul. With antibodies from before I would imagine okay.

[Mtrasb]

What would you say to/about someone that has antibodies, went to a hotspot and believes it's OK to go to shul? OK or not?

Although he may not be affected by the virus, is it possible that he may have picked it up and is able to spread it despite his being immune?

[PlatinumGuy]

Although he may not be affected by the virus, is it possible that he may have picked it up and is able to spread it despite his being immune?

Prevailing medical belief is that one cannot be a vector.

[S209]

The problem is that you can never test the theory of herd immunity in Lakewood if the bar keeps changing. When shuls opened en masse, followed by schools over two months ago with no social distancing we were assured by some on this forum that Lakewood was not even close to herd immunity and we would likely see a surge of infections. When that didn’t materialize we were told it was because there was no exposure in the community but once people started bringing it in from Florida it would rapidly spread. Now we have had lots of exposure and contact with no precautions but that still doesn’t indicate herd immunity because we actually need a critical mass of spreaders to get anywhere.

How about we pick one benchmark and stick with it. To me it seems that we should take a look at where things go the next couple of weeks and if we don’t see a massive wave of new home grown infections we can be reasonable sure that Lakewood has a decent amount of herd immunity. To be sure, if you manage to introduce a large amount of any virus be it measles, covid etc. into Lakewood there will be some limited spread as long as there are any non immune individuals. But that’s  not what herd immunity is about. Florida is a different story as it never had the opportunity to achieve herd immunity so it was a matter of the virus being present and people letting down their guard. That will continue to happen in other locales until a vaccine is introduced.

You’ve made this claim before, I’ve challenged you, and you’ve come up short, so let’s do it again: who has claimed that Lakewood has definitely not reached herd immunity and that we will definitely see a new surge in infections?

I’ll tell you the answer: you’re lying. Nobody said that there definitely isn’t, they said you have no proof that there *is*.

I have a different idea. How about we don't make up our own goalposts for herd immunity and continue with life the way it is now, which is mostly back to normal, but keep in mind that we should not turn our brains off and be on the lookout for the chance that maybe there is not enough immunity to give a shtemple of herd immunity.  This way we will be on the lookout to catch any potential resurgence and nip it in the bud. This is what makes sense considering that we still do not know how much immunity is needed for herd immunity or what a resurgence would really look like. No need to go crazy, just keep our eyes open and our brains on.

This is a reasonable approach and the one that most of the leadership in Lakewood is currently taking

[Jerseysteve]

https://m.jpost.com/health-science/israel-looking-to-acquire-covid-19-vaccines-from-astrazeneca-635705

[Jerseysteve]

https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/coronavirus-doubling-rate-drops-to-every-24-days-hebrew-u-635689

[Yard sale]

You’ve made this claim before, I’ve challenged you, and you’ve come up short, so let’s do it again: who has claimed that Lakewood has definitely not reached herd immunity and that we will definitely see a new surge in infections?

I’ll tell you the answer: you’re lying. Nobody said that there definitely isn’t, they said you have no proof that there *is*.

Wow, lying is a pretty strong accusation, and a baseless accusation at that. While you may not have said “definitely” (just a tad of over the top hysteria is more like it)

We are once again at *potentially* the beginning of an outbreak. No, it’s not the same as cars or the flu or all that good stuff. Yes, we should all be wearing masks in crowded indoor spaces, davening outdoors, and limiting crowd sizes or “bubbles”. False equivalency: your straw man argument, as usual, is ridiculous and tiresome. You want to wait until it’s too late again? Once there’s a full on outbreak it’s too late. We’ve seen that happen already. TO US.

There’s no what if. There is an uptick. Last time it took a couple of weeks max before dozens died and hundreds were hospitalized. Car accidents, my eye.

others have not been shy about their predictions. For example:

Many of us were predicting this, but thankfully we were wrong until now. I will happily eat crow because I truly expected to see more cases at an earlier date. I think we can control this outbreak but people need to be cautious again.

[SSLPhD]

Note that I didn't say not to go to shul. With antibodies from before I would imagine okay.

My point is, you're wanting people to not be "stupid." But people going to shul without a mask after visiting a hotspot may have rationale on why it's smart/good to do so. You say OK if they have antibodies. What if they didn't test for antibodies, but had a positive test.  What if they're just not showing antibodies yet/anymore? What if they think that to keep up immunity longer-term, it's important to continually be exposed to the virus?  Etc, etc.

[Euclid]

My point is, you're wanting people to not be "stupid." But people going to shul without a mask after visiting a hotspot may have rationale on why it's smart/good to do so. You say OK if they have antibodies. What if they didn't test for antibodies, but had a positive test.  What if they're just not showing antibodies yet/anymore? What if they think that to keep up immunity longer-term, it's important to continually be exposed to the virus?  Etc, etc.

Except by going to shul and/or not wearing a mask they're telling other people, implicitly, that it's okay not to use your brain. Not everyone knows their situation, and is akin to maaris ayin.
IMO, that's what happened to mask wearing in Lakewood - all those who had antibodies (or assumed they did) stopped wearing masks thereby causing other at-risk people (no antibodies) to also stop wearing masks.

[aygart]

My point is, you're wanting people to not be "stupid." But people going to shul without a mask after visiting a hotspot may have rationale on why it's smart/good to do so. You say OK if they have antibodies. What if they didn't test for antibodies, but had a positive test.  What if they're just not showing antibodies yet/anymore? What if they think that to keep up immunity longer-term, it's important to continually be exposed to the virus?  Etc, etc.

So then in those cases it wouldn't be stupid. Not sure what your question is.
Re the last question,, to go expose people who may not have any immunity based on some half baked theory that some others may benefit with zero evidence is from most stupid things out there.

[SSLPhD]

So then in those cases it wouldn't be stupid. Not sure what your question is.
Re the last question,, to go expose people who may not have any immunity based on some half baked theory that some others may benefit with zero evidence is from most stupid things out there.

It boils down to this: everyone has some way to look at what they're doing as smart.  Without clear rules (e.g., "everyone must wear a mask"), everyone does their own thing.

[S209]

Wow, lying is a pretty strong accusation, and a baseless accusation at that. While you may not have said “definitely” (just a tad of over the top hysteria is more like it)
others have not been shy about their predictions. For example:

Did you miss the word *potentially* with two asterisks around it? That’s what I said then and what I say now. This virus can *potentially* kill many more than car accidents or the flu, *as it already has*. I was pointing out how your comparisons to car accidents and the flu are ridiculous. They were then and they are now.

Is that hysteria? Then I guess I’m hysterical.

Far cry from “we were assured that we are not close to herd immunity” and “I’m amazed at the emunah of some people”. That’s the definition of a straw man- inventing a false argument that was never made.

[S209]

It boils down to this: everyone has some way to look at what they're doing as smart.  Without clear rules (e.g., "everyone must wear a mask"), everyone does their own thing.

How about: Everyone who hasn’t had the virus must wear a mask after visiting a hotspot?

[how]

How about: Everyone who hasn’t had the virus must wear a mask after visiting a hotspot?

I wish this would be the case

[ExGingi]

How about: Everyone who hasn’t had the virus must wear a mask after visiting a hotspot?

Let me make another prediction (early on I foresaw international travel coming to a halt, followed by domestic air travel):

Despite and over the objections of the WHO, CDC, and whomever, we will eventually have some form of "immunity passports" (just like the Chinese did months ago).

[PlatinumGuy]

"immunity passports" (just like the Chinese did months ago).

Source?

[aygart]

Let me make another prediction (early on I foresaw international travel coming to a halt, followed by domestic air travel):

Despite and over the objections of the WHO, CDC, and whomever, we will eventually have some form of "immunity passports" (just like the Chinese did months ago).

By whomever, are you referring to economists?

[ExGingi]

Source?

Where's @TimT when we need him. IINM I posted about this when it was a news story. They had smartphone apps with a 2D barcode which was required in order to board public transportation. This must have been in March.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/15/asia/china-coronavirus-qr-code-intl-hnk/index.html