Author Topic: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?  (Read 238748 times)

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״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Online AsherO

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1541 on: February 17, 2021, 02:12:18 PM »
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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1542 on: February 17, 2021, 09:40:49 PM »
Demand still outpaces supply, and that's even with eligiblity restrictions
'And half the cup is still empty'
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Online AsherO

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1543 on: February 17, 2021, 10:09:00 PM »
'And half the cup is still empty'
והסנה אנחנו אוכל

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Offline Ver hut gazugt

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1544 on: February 17, 2021, 10:10:05 PM »
https://twitter.com/aslavitt46/status/1361907808619356162

It’s a good start but as we see from EY you need at least 2 in 10 with both shots to have a real effect on severe infection.

Another positive lately shots have been up from 1m a day to now about 1.5-2m per day.

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1545 on: February 17, 2021, 11:08:06 PM »
https://twitter.com/aslavitt46/status/1361907808619356162

Personal opinion: I hate the optics of this tweet. It inspires false confidence. The people who are vaccinated are highly clustered together. The chances of the average person on the street bumping into someone who was vaccinated is much, much less than 1 in 20. The people who are most likely to spread the virus are also less likely to have been vaccinated. IMO, the cup is much less than half full here.
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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1546 on: February 17, 2021, 11:12:44 PM »
Personal opinion: I hate the optics of this tweet. It inspires false confidence. The people who are vaccinated are highly clustered together. The chances of the average person on the street bumping into someone who was vaccinated is much, much less than 1 in 20. The people who are most likely to spread the virus are also less likely to have been vaccinated. IMO, the cup is much less than half full here.

Are they still pre-allocating 50% of vaccine supply pipeline for second doses? Otherwise they’re going to get into serious trouble needing to supply the second dose on time while keeping the momentum going on the 1st dose initiative.
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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1547 on: February 17, 2021, 11:14:27 PM »
Personal opinion: I hate the optics of this tweet. It inspires false confidence. The people who are vaccinated are highly clustered together. The chances of the average person on the street bumping into someone who was vaccinated is much, much less than 1 in 20. The people who are most likely to spread the virus are also less likely to have been vaccinated. IMO, the cup is much less than half full here.
It depends what you infer from it. If you drop precautions, you're an idiot. If you're reassured that there's an end in sight and gather more patience to maintain caution, you're doing it right.


The people who are vaccinated are highly clustered together.


You're touching on a very important point. It's a flaw in the Israeli real world data. We know for example Russians in Israel in particular ar less likely to be vaccinated, and the inverse of that is that somebody who is vaccinated is more likely to be around others who are vaccinated, so if they don't get Covid, it is not only because of their vaccine but also because of the network effect of their contacts being more likely to be vaccinated.

Are they still pre-allocating 50% of vaccine supply pipeline for second doses? Otherwise they’re going to get into serious trouble needing to supply the second dose on time while keeping the momentum going on the 1st dose initiative.
I believe they are.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1548 on: February 17, 2021, 11:15:11 PM »
Are they still pre-allocating 50% of vaccine supply pipeline for second doses? Otherwise they’re going to get into serious trouble needing to supply the second dose on time while keeping the momentum going on the 1st dose initiative.
At least one location I know of that is out of "1st doses" and is only giving 2nd doses

Online AsherO

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1549 on: February 17, 2021, 11:17:49 PM »
At least one location I know of that is out of "1st doses" and is only giving 2nd doses

That’s true for now, but once the 1st dose count catches up the tides will shift and second doses will be harder to find for people who don’t automatically get a second appointment for some reason, can’t make it, or show up and there’s no dose for them for some reason.
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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1550 on: February 18, 2021, 07:07:54 PM »
You can check overall hospitalization rates and I'm sure you'll find they match the trend-line of covid hospitalizations. You're posing a theory which is extremely outlandish, and the main reason it's hard to believe it's true is that it would require coordination from 100s of thousands of people. The trend of cases/hospitalizations/death is similar in the vast majority of the country, there is no way it's all a farce.

Yup, sage advice. The Gemara teaches us the wisdom of relying on one who is humble over someone who is overconfident, and @biobook and I are polar opposites on that. Trust @biobook.

Came across an excellent line from Confucius “Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance.”
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Online AsherO

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1551 on: February 18, 2021, 07:16:02 PM »
Came across an excellent line from Confucius “Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance.”

תכלית הידיעה שלא נדע?
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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1552 on: February 18, 2021, 07:25:35 PM »
תכלית הידיעה שלא נדע?
Yes - where is that taken from?

Aristotle said "The more you know, the more you realize you don't know."
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1553 on: February 18, 2021, 07:27:35 PM »
Yes - where is that taken from?

Can of worms I don’t want to open. FWIU the concept is mentioned in several rishonim, but it’s not so novel/complex an idea that it had to originate in one place.
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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1554 on: February 18, 2021, 07:37:19 PM »
Can of worms I don’t want to open. FWIU the concept is mentioned in several rishonim, but it’s not so novel/complex an idea that it had to originate in one place.
Yes I understand, thought you were quoting a specific source. The bottom line I think is similar to much in Judaism (and life in general) - everybody agrees knoweldge is important, and everybody agrees certain things cannot be known, and there is large spectrum of opinions on how to balance those two truths.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline S209

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1555 on: February 18, 2021, 09:39:33 PM »
You both seem to be referring to the Dunning-Kruger effect, which details the inverse correlation between knowledge and confidence.

Quote
“It is paradoxical, yet true, to say, that the more we know, the more ignorant we become in the absolute sense, for it is only through enlightenment that we become conscious of our limitations.”
—Nikola Tesla (1915)


“The best lack all conviction, while the worst / Are full of passionate intensity.”
— W. B. Yeats, The Second Coming (1919)


“The fundamental cause of trouble in the world is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”
— Bertrand Russell,
Mortals and Others 1: American Essays (1931-35)


“The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence.”
― Charles Bukowski (circa 1960)

From here

ETA: Maharsha and Rosh on Kiddushin 6a mention the issue of the ignorant being unaware of the extent of their own ignorance.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2021, 09:42:57 PM by S209 »
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1556 on: February 18, 2021, 09:42:17 PM »
You both seem to be referring to the Dunning-Kruger effect, which details the inverse correlation between knowledge and confidence.

From here
Yup. “One's work may be finished someday, but one's education never.” 
― Alexandre Dumas
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1557 on: February 18, 2021, 09:55:26 PM »
You both seem to be referring to the Dunning-Kruger effect, which details the inverse correlation between knowledge and confidence.

From here

ETA: Maharsha and Rosh on Kiddushin 6a mention the issue of the ignorant being unaware of the extent of their own ignorance.
Reminds me of Rav Yisoel Salanter in 14
I know; bad OCR
Small people talk about other people.
Average people talk about things
BIG PEOPLE TALK ABOUT IDEAS.

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1558 on: February 18, 2021, 10:12:16 PM »
Came across an excellent line from Confucius “Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance.”

Aristotle said "The more you know, the more you realize you don't know."

It' a good line and true, but it's an issue when that humble mentality leads to analysis paralysis or over exaggerating uncertainty. Too many times we have experts claiming "We still don't know anything about COVID!" or "we don't know if vaccines will prevent transmission!". Oh yes, you do, you know more than enough to make many practical decisions with confidence.

Experts should be bold, confident, and stop downplaying their knowledge.
Visibly Jewish

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Re: Is there any good news in the fight against COVID-19?
« Reply #1559 on: February 18, 2021, 10:28:10 PM »
It' a good line and true, but it's an issue when that humble mentality leads to analysis paralysis or over exaggerating uncertainty. Too many times we have experts claiming "We still don't know anything about COVID!" or "we don't know if vaccines will prevent transmission!". Oh yes, you do, you know more than enough to make many practical decisions with confidence.

Experts should be bold, confident, and stop downplaying their knowledge.

The bottom line I think is similar to much in Judaism (and life in general) - everybody agrees knoweldge is important, and everybody agrees certain things cannot be known, and there is large spectrum of opinions on how to balance those two truths.

In a way, it is a Machlokes Rambam & Raaved

Quote
לא נהג זה המחבר מנהג החכמים שאין אדם מתחיל בדבר ולא ידע להשלימו והוא החל בשאלות קושיות והניח הדבר בקושיא והחזירו לאמונה וטוב היה לו להניח הדבר בתמימות התמימים ולא יעורר לבם ויניח דעתם בספק ואולי שעה אחת יבא הרהור בלבם על זה.
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