Author Topic: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition  (Read 65943 times)

Online S209

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1245 on: February 18, 2021, 10:32:52 AM »
Probably a repost but
Key quote:
Quote
The baseline assumptions for the model were that peak infectiousness occurred at the median of symptom onset and that 30% of individuals with infection never develop symptoms and are 75% as infectious as those who do develop symptoms. Combined, these baseline assumptions imply that persons with infection who never develop symptoms may account for approximately 24% of all transmission.

This modeling uses broad (sometimes outdated) assumptions to reach conclusions.

Another quote:
Quote
The proportion of individuals with infection who never have apparent symptoms is difficult to quantify because it requires intensive prospective clinical sampling and symptom screening from a representative sample of individuals with and without infection. Nonetheless, evidence from household contact studies indicates that asymptomatic or very mild symptomatic infections occur
They conflate mild symptoms with no symptoms
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1246 on: February 19, 2021, 10:23:42 AM »
Professor at Johns Hopkins claims we're almost at national herd immunity and Covid will be mostly gone by April, halevai it's not just clickbait:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1247 on: February 19, 2021, 10:49:24 AM »
Professor at Johns Hopkins claims we're almost at national herd immunity and Covid will be mostly gone by April, halevai it's not just clickbait:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

Quote
My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature and conversations with experts.

I'll take that bet.
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1248 on: February 19, 2021, 10:50:25 AM »
Professor at Johns Hopkins claims we're almost at national herd immunity and Covid will be mostly gone by April, halevai it's not just clickbait:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1249 on: February 19, 2021, 10:56:57 AM »
I'll take that bet.
"mostly" gone

Not gonna nail anyone down for a bet with that wording.

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1250 on: February 19, 2021, 11:06:20 AM »
"mostly" gone

Not gonna nail anyone down for a bet with that wording.

100K+ cases per day (7 day avg) on April 1st?
When you find yourself agreeing with me more often than not, it's time for a cheshbon hanefesh.

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1251 on: February 19, 2021, 11:20:37 AM »
So the cases dropped because of vaccination or because the wave is fading?

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1252 on: February 19, 2021, 11:26:31 AM »
So the cases dropped because of vaccination or because the wave is fading?

The biggest mistake in this article, IMO, is the first paragraph:
Quote
After nearly a year of social isolation and sacrifice in the long war on COVID-19, the end stage of the pandemic is finally in sight. Millions of Americans are being vaccinated each week, and the number of coronavirus-related hospitalizations in the United States has plunged by more than 40 percent in the past month.
Correlating the numbers going down from the second wave with the vaccine rollout may ultimately cause serious harm when the third wave hits.
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1253 on: February 19, 2021, 11:31:20 AM »
So the cases dropped because of vaccination or because the wave is fading?
Vaccination has to be playing a massive role, considering 60 million doses have already been distributed skewed heavily towards those with the highest risk of contracting COVID/severe COVID.
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1254 on: February 19, 2021, 11:36:37 AM »
Vaccination has to be playing a massive role, considering 60 million doses have already been distributed skewed heavily towards those with the highest risk of contracting COVID/severe COVID.

Highest risk also correlates to most-precautions, so should have the least effect on spread/cases

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1256 on: February 19, 2021, 11:39:08 AM »
Highest risk also correlates to most-precautions, so should have the least effect on spread/cases

I think ultimately it's a wash, especially with the new strains seemingly spreading faster and impacting children at a higher rate.
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1257 on: February 19, 2021, 11:42:35 AM »
I think ultimately it's a wash, especially with the new strains seemingly spreading faster and impacting children at a higher rate.

I'm asking from the perspective of the Johns Hopkins professor.

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1258 on: February 19, 2021, 11:45:58 AM »
I'm asking from the perspective of the Johns Hopkins professor.

He's working on the assumption that 2/3 of the US has been infected. If the higher risk populations were more careful and have not been previously infected, then the effect of the vaccinations would be that much more pronounced, especially with his T-cell immunity beliefs, leading to his conclusion that we are almost at herd immunity thresholds.
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1259 on: February 19, 2021, 12:21:49 PM »
He's working on the assumption that 2/3 of the US has been infected. If the higher risk populations were more careful and have not been previously infected, then the effect of the vaccinations would be that much more pronounced, especially with his T-cell immunity beliefs, leading to his conclusion that we are almost at herd immunity thresholds.

2/3?? Donít serological studies pretty much confirm this isnít the case?