Author Topic: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition  (Read 64561 times)

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1260 on: February 19, 2021, 12:27:03 PM »
2/3?? Donít serological studies pretty much confirm this isnít the case?

He has some backwards math equation extrapolating infections from assumptions about fatality rates.

ETA: His data is seemingly wildly speculative and inconsistent. First he says
Quote
Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

Then later
Quote
Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.

He also seems to be relying on an very generous prediction for vaccination rates:
Quote
Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2021, 12:36:49 PM by Lurker »
When you find yourself agreeing with me more often than not, it's time for a cheshbon hanefesh.

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1261 on: February 19, 2021, 12:42:58 PM »
Update: The WSJ article I linked is now the lead store on Drudge. I knew it would spark discussion, but didn't realize it would go so viral so quickly. Looking forward to further analysis of his numbers and claims by our local DDF experts.

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1262 on: February 19, 2021, 12:55:07 PM »
He has some backwards math equation extrapolating infections from assumptions about fatality rates.

ETA: His data is seemingly wildly speculative and inconsistent. First he says
Then later
He also seems to be relying on an very generous prediction for vaccination rates:
The only half decent math in there is the real chance of 250 million doses being administered by the end of March.
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1263 on: February 19, 2021, 12:56:04 PM »
Update: The WSJ article I linked is now the lead store on Drudge. I knew it would spark discussion, but didn't realize it would go so viral so quickly. Looking forward to further analysis of his numbers and claims by our local DDF experts.
Itís total garbage. See above.
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1264 on: February 19, 2021, 02:36:30 PM »
https://www.wsj.com/articles/single-dose-of-pfizer-vaccine-is-85-effective-israeli-study-shows-11613723218
Quote
A single shot of the vaccine is 85% effective in preventing symptomatic disease 15 to 28 days after being administered, according to a peer-reviewed study conducted by the Israeli government-owned Sheba Medical Center and published in the Lancet medical journal.


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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1266 on: February 21, 2021, 01:47:15 AM »
https://www.wsj.com/articles/single-dose-of-pfizer-vaccine-is-85-effective-israeli-study-shows-11613723218

There are many flaws with Real World Data and a big one is network effects. Vaccinated people are much more likely to be around other vaccinated people than non-vaccinated people (Nursing homes - everybody vaccinated, Russian middle age - almost nobody vaccined, and social circles in between), so you don't know if the fact they didn't get infected is because their vaccine worked or the vaccine worked for those around them.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1267 on: February 21, 2021, 10:31:07 AM »

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1271 on: February 24, 2021, 09:58:56 PM »
Variant-fearmongering, or a real concern deveoping?

Cluster of dangerous COVID variant B.1.526 found in upper Manhattan and dispersed in other parts of NYC. If itís a real threat, just-before-Purim timing couldnít have been worse, may Hashem watch over all of us.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/24/health/coronavirus-variant-nyc.html

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1272 on: February 24, 2021, 10:32:34 PM »
Variant-fearmongering, or a real concern deveoping?

Cluster of dangerous COVID variant B.1.526 found in upper Manhattan and dispersed in other parts of NYC. If itís a real threat, just-before-Purim timing couldnít have been worse, may Hashem watch over all of us.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/24/health/coronavirus-variant-nyc.html

One thing that's for sure is that in the last 2-3 weeks NY numbers are worse than most other states, despite having been from the best for the 6-8 months prior.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1273 on: February 24, 2021, 10:38:56 PM »
One thing that's for sure is that in the last 2-3 weeks NY numbers are worse than most other states, despite having been from the best for the 6-8 months prior.

Thatís true, and the first viable explanation Iíve heard.

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1274 on: February 24, 2021, 10:52:56 PM »
Thatís true, and the first viable explanation Iíve heard.
I think the prevalence of B.1.526 is fairly well established, but there isn't any credible indication of clinical significance, yet.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר Ė יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים