Author Topic: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition  (Read 162859 times)

Offline Dan

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #420 on: July 16, 2020, 11:28:24 PM »
So... the CDC changed the current best estimate of the IFR to .65% (which is much more in line with reality) without telling anyone. I’m waiting to hear some breathless news reports in another couple of weeks about this “breaking news”.

(They also assume that asymptomatic people are 75% as infectious as symptomatic people, and 50% of transmission occurs before symptoms appear).

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html#box
Getting closer to my calculation...

Looks like a fatality rate of about 0.75% to me.
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #421 on: July 18, 2020, 11:25:45 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-18/covid-most-of-world-to-face-virus-without-vaccine-expert-says

Quote
We have to find a way to open our community in a way that supports our long-term medical goal, which is the least number of casualties over time, knowing that you cannot avoid the spread of infection. There is no other tool available.
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #422 on: July 18, 2020, 11:31:45 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-18/covid-most-of-world-to-face-virus-without-vaccine-expert-says
Interesting article, where he acknowledges that the wealthier countries are going to have a vaccine by the end of this year/beginning of next, although less connected countries may go months or a year before they have equal access. I highly doubt the WHO will be able to change DJT’s mind about that, so he’s probably right.
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #424 on: July 19, 2020, 02:55:10 PM »
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #425 on: July 19, 2020, 03:08:04 PM »
Very low sample size, all of the data can be attributed to a single teen super spreader

Would I be wrong if I said that most MSM COVID-19 studies/facts/science/etc. is holding onto straws for confirmation bias?

For real science I like to read @biobook's summaries of Daniel Griffin on TWiV.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #426 on: July 19, 2020, 03:10:33 PM »
Very low sample size, all of the data can be attributed to a single teen super spreader

Possible.

This is why younger people getting it matters in a huge way. What you do matters. What your kids do matters.





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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #427 on: July 19, 2020, 03:14:28 PM »
Would I be wrong if I said that most MSM COVID-19 studies/facts/science/etc. is holding onto straws for confirmation bias?

Yes. Where did they get the initial opinion from that they're trying to confirm? Almost everything we believe now we already knew from Chinese doctors in January.
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Offline S209

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #428 on: July 19, 2020, 03:55:18 PM »
Would I be wrong if I said that most MSM COVID-19 studies/facts/science/etc. is holding onto straws for confirmation bias?

For real science I like to read @biobook's summaries of Daniel Griffin on TWiV.
Yes, completely wrong. What are you talking about? What straws? Like the assumption that masks don’t work, that it’s not that deadly, that there are no long term effects?
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #429 on: July 19, 2020, 03:59:13 PM »
Yes. Where did they get the initial opinion from that they're trying to confirm? Almost everything we believe now we already knew from Chinese doctors in January.

Except that... we mostly don't know much and didn't know much in January.

There's a lot of guessing, but actual science? Did we know in January that blood clots are a major issue? That steroids and anti-coagulants save lives? That HCQ+Zinc+Azythromicin can work for many people?

Oh, we do know that several communities around NYC were very badly hit early on, suffered casualties, but despite largely ignoring social distancing, masks and other guidelines, have been able to go back to normal life without fear and without major reinfections and tragedies.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #430 on: July 19, 2020, 04:07:11 PM »
Except that... we mostly don't know much and didn't know much in January.

There's a lot of guessing, but actual science? Did we know in January that blood clots are a major issue? That steroids and anti-coagulants save lives? That HCQ+Zinc+Azythromicin can work for many people?

Oh, we do know that several communities around NYC were very badly hit early on, suffered casualties, but despite largely ignoring social distancing, masks and other guidelines, have been able to go back to normal life without fear and without major reinfections and tragedies.
🤦

We knew a lot in January, and we know more now, including (maybe) the two examples you gave.
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #431 on: July 19, 2020, 04:35:48 PM »
🤦

We knew a lot in January, and we know more now, including (maybe) the two examples you gave.

I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #433 on: July 19, 2020, 05:59:15 PM »
https://americanmind.org/essays/the-covid-coup/

Does your experience in CH correspond to his premise that this was a "manufacutred panic"?
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #434 on: July 19, 2020, 06:09:06 PM »
Does your experience in CH correspond to his premise that this was a "manufacutred panic"?

So now I actually have to read the article, rather than just glance through it, in order to provide a meaningful answer. I'll try to do that when I have a chance.

But just based on your question, without actually reading how it is written about in the article, and at the risk of being misunderstood, I will say that almost all panics are "manufactured".

Was there something terrible going on? Yes.
Was there very serious and real reason for concern? Absolutely.
Was the medical system overwhelmed, both by the volume of cases, as well as by their ignorance of how to properly treat them? A strong and resounding yes!
Does any of this justify panic? Not IMHO. Definitely not for someone striving to be a בעל אמונה ובטחון.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #435 on: July 19, 2020, 06:14:52 PM »
So now I actually have to read the article, rather than just glance through it, in order to provide a meaningful answer. I'll try to do that when I have a chance.

But just based on your question, without actually reading how it is written about in the article, and at the risk of being misunderstood, I will say that almost all panics are "manufactured".

Was there something terrible going on? Yes.
Was there very serious and real reason for concern? Absolutely.
Was the medical system overwhelmed, both by the volume of cases, as well as by their ignorance of how to properly treat them? A strong and resounding yes!
Does any of this justify panic? Not IMHO. Definitely not for someone striving to be a בעל אמונה ובטחון.

Nahh you don't need to read it. The premise of the articlew is that this was about the same as the flu.

Re panic. I fully agree that nobody should panic. Everyone should be calm and collected and just take whatever precautions they need to. That is very appropriate for someone striving to be a בעל אמונה ובטחון.

Were some of the precautions implemeted by the power hungry way overboard? YES and then on top of that they had zero exit strategy.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #436 on: July 19, 2020, 06:43:28 PM »
Would I be wrong if I said that most MSM COVID-19 studies/facts/science/etc. is holding onto straws for confirmation bias?

For real science I like to read @biobook's summaries of Daniel Griffin on TWiV.
@ExGingi   On what do you base your decision of whom to trust?  Why Dr Griffin, and not the doctors and scientists who write in newspapers or speak on tv, youtube or wherever?

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #437 on: July 19, 2020, 06:47:14 PM »
Were some of the precautions implemeted by the power hungry way overboard? YES and then on top of that they had zero exit strategy.

Right on the ball!
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #438 on: July 19, 2020, 06:53:03 PM »
@ExGingi   On what do you base your decision of whom to trust?  Why Dr Griffin, and not the doctors and scientists who write in newspapers or speak on tv, youtube or wherever?

Good question. It might be a hunch, it might be something in the style and content. IINM he hasn't been shy to acknowledge shortcomings and lack of knowledge. I pick up bits and pieces from many places. I don't read newspapers or watch TV. Google News, Bloomberg.com, Twitter, and some Jewish Websites (DDF being one of them) are my news/information feeds. I tend to doubt anything that sounds like it has the absolute grasp of facts or truth.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #439 on: July 19, 2020, 06:53:54 PM »
Right on the ball!
That was so obvious and I have been saying this for months already.
Feelings don't care about your facts