Author Topic: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition  (Read 162827 times)

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #881 on: December 01, 2020, 12:46:24 AM »
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/11/28/asia/japan-suicide-women-covid-dst-intl-hnk/index.html
Quote
Japan is the only G-7 country where suicide is the leading manner of death for young people aged 15 to 39. And suicides among those under 20 had been increasing even before the pandemic, according to health ministry.
Wow. That’s really sad.
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #882 on: December 01, 2020, 10:11:13 AM »
Wow. That’s really sad.

At those ages I would be surprised if it is different in any advanced economy that's not engaged in war.
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #883 on: December 01, 2020, 10:43:52 AM »
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-likely-in-u-s-in-mid-december-2019-cdc-scientists-report-11606782449?mod=e2tw

In analyzing the blood samples, the CDC scientists found antibodies in 39 samples from California, Oregon and Washington state collected between December 13 and December 16.
The findings suggest there were isolated cases of coronavirus infection on the U.S. West Coast in mid-December, the scientists wrote.
They also found 67 samples with antibodies in Massachusetts, Michigan, Wisconsin or Iowa, and Connecticut or Rhode Island collected between Dec. 30 and Jan. 17.
Those findings indicated that cases were more dispersed—yet still isolated—by early this year.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2020, 10:47:11 AM by aygart »
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #884 on: December 01, 2020, 11:31:36 AM »
At those ages I would be surprised if it is different in any advanced economy that's not engaged in war.
There is no advanced economy that’s engaged in war
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #885 on: December 01, 2020, 11:35:07 AM »
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-likely-in-u-s-in-mid-december-2019-cdc-scientists-report-11606782449?mod=e2tw

In analyzing the blood samples, the CDC scientists found antibodies in 39 samples from California, Oregon and Washington state collected between December 13 and December 16.
The findings suggest there were isolated cases of coronavirus infection on the U.S. West Coast in mid-December, the scientists wrote.
They also found 67 samples with antibodies in Massachusetts, Michigan, Wisconsin or Iowa, and Connecticut or Rhode Island collected between Dec. 30 and Jan. 17.
Those findings indicated that cases were more dispersed—yet still isolated—by early this year.
can anyone post the full article?
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #886 on: December 01, 2020, 11:38:00 AM »
can anyone post the full article?
The new coronavirus infected people in the U.S. in mid-December 2019, a few weeks before it was officially identified in China and about a month earlier than public health authorities found the first U.S. case, according to a government study published Monday.

The findings significantly strengthen evidence suggesting the virus was spreading around the world well before public health authorities and researchers became aware, upending initial thinking about how early and quickly it emerged.

Scientists at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found evidence of infection in 106 of 7,389 blood donations collected by the American Red Cross from residents in nine states across the U.S., according to the study published online in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases.
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The scientists based their study on blood samples that the American Red Cross collected between Dec. 13 and Jan. 17 and later sent to the CDC for testing to see if any had antibodies to the new coronavirus, which is named SARS-CoV-2.

“SARS-CoV-2 infections may have been present in the U.S. in December 2019, earlier than previously recognized,” the authors wrote.

A person’s immune system develops antibodies when exposed to a pathogen like a virus to fight it off. Their presence suggests exposure to a virus.

In analyzing the blood samples, the CDC scientists found antibodies in 39 samples from California, Oregon and Washington state collected between Dec. 13 and Dec. 16.

The findings suggest there were isolated cases of coronavirus infection on the U.S. West Coast in mid-December, the scientists wrote.

They also found 67 samples with antibodies in Massachusetts, Michigan, Wisconsin or Iowa, and Connecticut or Rhode Island collected between Dec. 30 and Jan. 17.

Those findings indicated that cases were more dispersed—yet still isolated—by early this year.
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The scientists said they ruled out the possibility that the antibodies they found had developed to fight off other coronaviruses, which cause the common cold. They did that by looking for antibodies specific to the new coronavirus in 90 of the samples.

They said they found antibodies specific to SARS-CoV-2 in 84 of the samples, or nearly all of them.

The results add to growing evidence suggesting Covid-19 was present outside of China earlier than previously known. Researchers found the virus, for example, in a retrospective analysis of a specimen from a patient who was hospitalized in France on Dec. 27, 2019.

The first Covid-19 case in the U.S. was reported on Jan. 19, two days after testing for the virus began there, the CDC researchers said. A young man returning from China a few days earlier suspected he might have the disease and sought care for his symptoms.

Two other people who were subsequently diagnosed in the U.S. also developed symptoms in mid-January.

Earlier studies have also suggested that Covid-19 had moved beyond just isolated cases and was spreading in communities in the U.S. by mid- to late-January, though epidemiologists say that the virus likely didn’t circulate widely in communities until later in February.

The new study shows the value of screening routinely collected blood samples for evidence of viruses spreading in a population, the CDC authors said, adding that the agency is continuing to conduct surveillance for Covid-19 this way.

Not only did Covid-19 likely appear in the U.S. earlier than previously known, but researchers have found evidence that the virus is far more widespread in the U.S. than testing indicates.

Some 53 million people in the U.S. likely had contracted Covid-19 by the end of September, according to a modeling estimate published last week by CDC researchers. Roughly 6.9 million infections had been confirmed within that time period, suggesting that roughly one in every eight cases was identified.

Yet, the majority of the U.S. population hasn’t been infected. On Nov. 24, a CDC study published in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine estimated that fewer than 1% to 23% of people in the U.S. had antibodies, depending on the location.

Write to Betsy McKay at betsy.mckay@wsj.com

Copyright ©2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Appeared in the December 1, 2020, print edition as 'Virus Was Likely In U.S. in Late 2019.'
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #887 on: December 01, 2020, 11:38:36 AM »
thanks!
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #888 on: December 01, 2020, 02:15:19 PM »
There is no advanced economy that’s engaged in war

Irrelevant.
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #889 on: December 02, 2020, 02:43:13 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-02/cdc-updates-quarantine-travel-advice-amid-winter-s-covid-threat

They had to wait this long to issue guidance that made sense months ago. Quarantine with daily testing most probably should end after no more than 5 or 6 days. But will anyone allow that level of relative freedom?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #890 on: December 02, 2020, 02:48:41 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-02/cdc-updates-quarantine-travel-advice-amid-winter-s-covid-threat

They had to wait this long to issue guidance that made sense months ago. Quarantine with daily testing most probably should end after no more than 5 or 6 days. But will anyone allow that level of relative freedom?
I know quite a few people who developed symptoms more than 7 days after exposure. I even know of one 14 days after (they were in quarantine). The CDC admits that one can still become infected after these dates but says this will boost compliance with a relatively lower risk of infection.

Tachlis. When can I come out of quarantine?
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #891 on: December 02, 2020, 02:50:24 PM »
I know quite a few people who developed symptoms more than 7 days after exposure. I even know of one 14 days after (they were in quarantine). The CDC admits that one can still become infected after these dates but says this will boost compliance with a relatively lower risk of infection.

Tachlis. When can I come out of quarantine?

Who said anything about symptoms? Were the people who "developed symptoms more than 7 days after exposure" tested daily within those 7 days?
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #892 on: December 02, 2020, 02:50:54 PM »
I know quite a few people who developed symptoms more than 7 days after exposure.
but would they have tested positive already on day 7?
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #893 on: December 02, 2020, 02:55:23 PM »
but would they have tested positive already on day 7?

Why obfuscate with facts?
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #894 on: December 02, 2020, 03:04:29 PM »
Why obfuscate with facts?
It was a question, not facts, so we're good
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #895 on: December 02, 2020, 03:58:08 PM »
It was a question, not facts, so we're good

And mine was a Jewish answer to a question! (sarcastically pointing out that the claim brought forth by @S209 had nothing to do with the science that would show that quarantine with testing likely to be of sufficient length at less than 7 days).
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #896 on: December 02, 2020, 04:17:27 PM »
And mine was a Jewish answer to a question! (sarcastically pointing out that the claim brought forth by @S209 had nothing to do with the science that would show that quarantine with testing likely to be of sufficient length at less than 7 days).
Source for this science that they would test positive after 7 days even if not yet showing symptoms? (for this they wouldn't even need daily testing-just test on day 7)
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #897 on: December 02, 2020, 04:32:16 PM »
Source for this science that they would test positive after 7 days even if not yet showing symptoms? (for this they wouldn't even need daily testing-just test on day 7)

לא ראינו אינה ראיה  :P

I don't read everything out there, but I seem to recall seeing something about it. Maybe @biobook can chime in.

Is there any source to show otherwise? That people have gone into quarantine (Isolation) and tested negative on day 1 and day 7 (and preferably all days in between) and yet started presenting symptoms after 7 days of isolation and negative tests?

ETA:

My post was about the fact that @S209's post has nothing to do with any sciene, showing one way or the other, in regards to testing negative after 5 or 6 days in isolation after exposure and being safely cleared from isolation/quarantine.
« Last Edit: December 02, 2020, 05:14:35 PM by ExGingi »
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #898 on: December 02, 2020, 05:23:33 PM »
לא ראינו אינה ראיה  :P

I don't read everything out there, but I seem to recall seeing something about it. Maybe @biobook can chime in.

Is there any source to show otherwise? That people have gone into quarantine (Isolation) and tested negative on day 1 and day 7 (and preferably all days in between) and yet started presenting symptoms after 7 days of isolation and negative tests?

ETA:

My post was about the fact that @S209's post has nothing to do with any sciene, showing one way or the other, in regards to testing negative after 5 or 6 days in isolation after exposure and being safely cleared from isolation/quarantine.

Then @etech0 had written it correctly as a question. Since you wrote it is an answer, your answer is unproven and therefore unreliable. Your claim about his ignoring some sort of science that you made up is stam silly.
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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #899 on: December 02, 2020, 08:25:34 PM »
And mine was a Jewish answer to a question! (sarcastically pointing out that the claim brought forth by @S209 had nothing to do with the science that would show that quarantine with testing likely to be of sufficient length at less than 7 days).
Some quotes from the article you posted:
Quote
The idea is that quarantines shorter than 14 days carry low infection risks and will boost compliance, CDC officials said on a call with reporters.

Quote
The agency still recommends previous guidance outlining a 14-day quarantine for people who may have been exposed to the novel coronavirus. But the officials said the new time limits were being suggested based on modeling by the agency, academic centers and public health departments.

Quote
“All of these point in the same direction, which is that we can safely reduce the length of quarantine, but accepting there is a small residual risk that a person who is leaving quarantine early could transmit to someone else if they became infectious,” said John Brooks, chief medical officer for the CDC’s Covid-19 response.

Seems like testing on day 7 does *not* eliminate the risk, but does alleviate it to a large extent. Right now we’re not at a place as a country where we are going to eliminate each path of infection but compliance is waning, so they are taking a calculated risk designed to increase compliance and reduce overall spread.

A Nafka Mina? If the shorter length is just to increase compliance, it’s quite probable that halachically one must still wait the full 14 days. This isn’t hypothetical- I am quarantined at the moment due to exposure to my wife.
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