Author Topic: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition  (Read 162845 times)

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #960 on: December 06, 2020, 10:51:59 PM »
Community leadership.
Let's be real, it's not like you were listening to the C"H B"D about masks when they said in no uncertain terms to wear them. That wouldn't happen OOT.

Which part wouldn't happen OOT? 🙊

I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #962 on: December 07, 2020, 06:48:55 AM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-06/which-covid-19-rules-are-useless-too-many-of-them

This should be much louder IMHO. And is just further evidence that for the politicians it's all about power and control. If they really cared about science we would likely be in better shape (as a functioning economy, as well as physical and mental health).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline Lurker

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #963 on: December 07, 2020, 07:50:58 AM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-06/which-covid-19-rules-are-useless-too-many-of-them

This should be much louder IMHO. And is just further evidence that for the politicians it's all about power and control. If they really cared about science we would likely be in better shape (as a functioning economy, as well as physical and mental health).

Wouldn't help. Murica.
Failing at maintaining Lurker status.

Offline Ergel

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #964 on: December 07, 2020, 08:16:48 AM »
Wouldn't help. Murica.
Can't know till you try. Though it may be too late
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline aygart

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #965 on: December 07, 2020, 09:03:40 AM »
Can't know till you try. Though it may be too late
You can look at places that supposedly did.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline S209

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #966 on: December 07, 2020, 11:41:33 AM »
https://archive.is/p6Kfz#selection-2775.0-3141.163

Quote
The sheer onslaught of horrible Covid-19 data can be hard for the human mind to process. So think of it this way: The way things are going, the disease will soon be killing as many Americans every day as terrorist attacks did on Sept. 11, 2001.

In recent days, the Thanksgiving holiday has made the data particularly difficult to read. A lot of people got tested last week before traveling to visit friends and relatives, so there was a big spike in the number of tests and the number of confirmed cases, both of which set new records. Probably a lot of asymptomatic people discovered that they were positive just as they were getting ready to go see Grandma.
Now, in the wake of that testing-driven surge, daily cases and the seven-day average are going down. But that’s no reason for relief: The decline merely reflects an enormous reporting lag from the long holiday weekend. Over the next several days, expect a big rebound in both confirmed cases and deaths.
Taking the artificial holiday fluctuations into account, the trend isn’t pretty. The U.S. is averaging more than 140,000 cases a day and — given the transmission potential of the holiday season — appears likely to keep doing so at least through the end of the year. This means there’s a lot of suffering yet to come.
How much suffering? Let’s start with deaths. Covid-19 kills an estimated 2% of the people it infects. So of the 140,000 getting sick every day, eventually about 2,800 will die. That’s nearly as many as on 9/11, for each day that new infections remain at about 140,000 — and we’ve already been at that level for 21 days. On average, the deaths will happen about 12 days after people get sick. 1   Depending on the state, they might take as long as another month to get recorded and appear in the official data.
That’s not all. A significant portion of those who survive will become “long-haulers” — people who do not fully recover within a few weeks or months, experiencing symptoms such as brain fog and fatigue that can render them unable to work. Studies suggest that they comprise half or more of hospitalized Covid-19 cases. So for each new 140,000-case day, expect between 3,300 and 15,000 people to join the long-haulers.
The deaths and suffering are all the more tragic given that, with vaccines on the way and looking very promising, they are largely avoidable. It was one thing to risk seeing a dear friend when we had no end in sight, but now that the light is appearing at the end of the approximately six-month tunnel, we should keep our risky behavior to an absolute minimum.
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Offline S209

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #967 on: December 07, 2020, 12:35:06 PM »
How rare is it for that to happen? @ExGingi seemed to be implying it *never* happens.

Quote
Local public health authorities determine and establish the quarantine options for their jurisdictions. CDC currently recommends a quarantine period of 14 days. However, based on local circumstances and resources, the following options to shorten quarantine are acceptable alternatives.

Quarantine can end after Day 10 without testing and if no symptoms have been reported during daily monitoring.
With this strategy, residual post-quarantine transmission risk is estimated to be about 1% with an upper limit of about 10%.
When diagnostic testing resources are sufficient and available (see bullet 3, below), then quarantine can end after Day 7 if a diagnostic specimen tests negative and if no symptoms were reported during daily monitoring. The specimen may be collected and tested within 48 hours before the time of planned quarantine discontinuation (e.g., in anticipation of testing delays), but quarantine cannot be discontinued earlier than after Day 7.
With this strategy, the residual post-quarantine transmission risk is estimated to be about 5% with an upper limit of about 12%.
In both cases, additional criteria (e.g., continued symptom monitoring and masking through Day 14) must be met and are outlined in the full text.


CDC


Additional sources on ending quarantine early with a negative PCR test:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.27.20211631v4
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.21.20177808v3
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.23.20237412v1

In short: it appears that quarantining contacts for 14 days from exposure reduces transmission risk by nearly 100%. Reducing quarantine to 10 days (with no symptoms) appears to still lower transmission risk by ~98%, while further reducing quarantine to 7 days with a negative PCR test seemingly still decreases transmission risk by ~95%. Exercising extreme caution for the remaining 4-7 days (mask wearing, avoiding crowds, distancing, and symptom monitoring) further reduces ongoing transmission risk.

It’s certainly likely that with a quarantine period cut in half, compliance would rise dramatically. Additionally, it’s reasonable to assume it would be better for the economy, mental health, education, etc. If the virus is not heavily prevalent in a population it may be worthwhile to eliminate as many avenues of transmission as possible despite the cost but where we currently stand as a country the CBA certainly seems to greatly favor increasing compliance at the cost of somewhat elevated transmission risk. The fact that this would encourage greater testing among exposed contacts would definitely be helpful as well.

IMO, in a population with a large amount of immunity (like Lakewood or BP), even where the virus is not heavily prevalent, it makes sense to adopt a policy of 7 days plus a negative PCR. However, that is only true if all or most contacts will comply with quarantine policies (unlike Lakewood or BP). Otherwise, even the slightly elevated risk can get blown out of proportion by a few irresponsible people due to the k factor.
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Offline biobook

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #968 on: December 07, 2020, 02:10:53 PM »

CDC


Additional sources on ending quarantine early with a negative PCR test:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.27.20211631v4
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.21.20177808v3
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.23.20237412v1

In short: it appears that quarantining contacts for 14 days from exposure reduces transmission risk by nearly 100%. Reducing quarantine to 10 days (with no symptoms) appears to still lower transmission risk by ~98%, while further reducing quarantine to 7 days with a negative PCR test seemingly still decreases transmission risk by ~95%. Exercising extreme caution for the remaining 4-7 days (mask wearing, avoiding crowds, distancing, and symptom monitoring) further reduces ongoing transmission risk.

It’s certainly likely that with a quarantine period cut in half, compliance would rise dramatically. Additionally, it’s reasonable to assume it would be better for the economy, mental health, education, etc. If the virus is not heavily prevalent in a population it may be worthwhile to eliminate as many avenues of transmission as possible despite the cost but where we currently stand as a country the CBA certainly seems to greatly favor increasing compliance at the cost of somewhat elevated transmission risk. The fact that this would encourage greater testing among exposed contacts would definitely be helpful as well.

IMO, in a population with a large amount of immunity (like Lakewood or BP), even where the virus is not heavily prevalent, it makes sense to adopt a policy of 7 days plus a negative PCR. However, that is only true if all or most contacts will comply with quarantine policies (unlike Lakewood or BP). Otherwise, even the slightly elevated risk can get blown out of proportion by a few irresponsible people due to the k factor.

Thanks!  This is great! I think this answers @ExGingi 's concern, which was decreasing the time to exit isolation after exposure to an infected person. 

Though it doesn't answer the specific study he wanted, which was "Let's take a group of people with a known exposure to a positive case, isolate them for two weeks to prevent a second exposure, and conduct repeated PCR tests during this time to determine how long it takes for the first positive test to appear." 

I haven't found any study to answer that particular question, but probably for good reason - it would be a waste of time and tests in pursuit of a point of information that is not really practically useful now.  More important is to monitor time since infection and possible symptoms, rather than testing for the virus.   

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #969 on: December 07, 2020, 09:54:53 PM »

CDC


Additional sources on ending quarantine early with a negative PCR test:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.27.20211631v4
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.21.20177808v3
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.23.20237412v1

In short: it appears that quarantining contacts for 14 days from exposure reduces transmission risk by nearly 100%. Reducing quarantine to 10 days (with no symptoms) appears to still lower transmission risk by ~98%, while further reducing quarantine to 7 days with a negative PCR test seemingly still decreases transmission risk by ~95%. Exercising extreme caution for the remaining 4-7 days (mask wearing, avoiding crowds, distancing, and symptom monitoring) further reduces ongoing transmission risk.

It’s certainly likely that with a quarantine period cut in half, compliance would rise dramatically. Additionally, it’s reasonable to assume it would be better for the economy, mental health, education, etc. If the virus is not heavily prevalent in a population it may be worthwhile to eliminate as many avenues of transmission as possible despite the cost but where we currently stand as a country the CBA certainly seems to greatly favor increasing compliance at the cost of somewhat elevated transmission risk. The fact that this would encourage greater testing among exposed contacts would definitely be helpful as well.

IMO, in a population with a large amount of immunity (like Lakewood or BP), even where the virus is not heavily prevalent, it makes sense to adopt a policy of 7 days plus a negative PCR. However, that is only true if all or most contacts will comply with quarantine policies (unlike Lakewood or BP). Otherwise, even the slightly elevated risk can get blown out of proportion by a few irresponsible people due to the k factor.
Thanks!  This is great! I think this answers @ExGingi 's concern, which was decreasing the time to exit isolation after exposure to an infected person. 

Though it doesn't answer the specific study he wanted, which was "Let's take a group of people with a known exposure to a positive case, isolate them for two weeks to prevent a second exposure, and conduct repeated PCR tests during this time to determine how long it takes for the first positive test to appear." 

I haven't found any study to answer that particular question, but probably for good reason - it would be a waste of time and tests in pursuit of a point of information that is not really practically useful now.  More important is to monitor time since infection and possible symptoms, rather than testing for the virus.   
Thanks for posting @S209. I would argue that הא בהא תליא. Evidence of a sensible policy to shorten quarantine would get more people to willingly comply.

As to @biobook's assertion that such a study is a waste of time, that is beyond me. I would argue that it would be an extremely useful study, as it would enable improved accuracy of quarantine requirements, showing goodwill of kinds to people who are experiencing draconian measures, enabling more of a back-to-normal life, without any increased risk to public health. On the contrary, people are more likely to comply if they have a reasonable route to a quicker way out of it.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #970 on: December 07, 2020, 10:23:24 PM »
Thanks for posting @S209. I would argue that הא בהא תליא. Evidence of a sensible policy to shorten quarantine would get more people to willingly comply.

As to @biobook's assertion that such a study is a waste of time, that is beyond me. I would argue that it would be an extremely useful study, as it would enable improved accuracy of quarantine requirements, showing goodwill of kinds to people who are experiencing draconian measures, enabling more of a back-to-normal life, without any increased risk to public health. On the contrary, people are more likely to comply if they have a reasonable route to a quicker way out of it.

Agreed. I don't usually think your COVID takes are reasonable but this one certainly sounds sensible to me.
Visibly Jewish

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #971 on: December 07, 2020, 10:53:35 PM »
Agreed. I don't usually think your COVID takes are reasonable but this one certainly sounds sensible to me.

If you go back and read them, now that you've agreed with this one, you'll find my reasoning to be consistent. It might have just come across to you differently.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline yuneeq

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #972 on: December 08, 2020, 12:34:01 AM »
If you go back and read them, now that you've agreed with this one, you'll find my reasoning to be consistent. It might have just come across to you differently.

I don't need to look back to remember them, just take the W and move on :P
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Offline TimT

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Offline S209

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #974 on: December 08, 2020, 10:55:10 PM »
https://www.fox5ny.com/news/new-york-legislation-would-make-covid-19-vaccination-mandatory
It’s very wrong. Let capitalism do its part. When vaccines are freely available to all the government’s job is over.
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Offline TimT

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #975 on: December 08, 2020, 11:10:04 PM »
capitalism
B’shem all NY politicians; what’s this ?

Offline iluv2travel

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #976 on: December 08, 2020, 11:12:57 PM »
It’s very wrong. Let capitalism do its part. When vaccines are freely available to all the government’s job is over.

Agree. Totally out of order.

I'm wondering how this will be enforced. With vaccines for kids they can't attend daycare or school if they're not up to date, so most of the time that gets people to comply. This vaccine isn't being marketed for kids yet as far as I know (has it even been tested on kids yet?), so how are they going to force adults to get a vaccine if they don't want it? Just wait for all those medical exemptions to roll in.

I personally think there are enough people who want to get vaccinated; no need for an unnecessary law.

Offline iluv2travel

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #977 on: December 08, 2020, 11:14:08 PM »
B’shem all NY politicians; what’s this ?

Ask AOC. She definitely knows.

Offline yesitsme

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #978 on: December 08, 2020, 11:14:59 PM »
I have no problem with a mandate if they do a mail in vaccine

Offline TimT

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Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #979 on: December 08, 2020, 11:27:49 PM »
I'm wondering how this will be enforced.
If it’s up to the politicians probably the same way China’s gonna do it. And hand out “I Vaccinated” pins.
I personally think there are enough people who want to get vaccinated; no need for an unnecessary law.
Will more take this one than measles ?