Author Topic: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition  (Read 162940 times)

Offline Lurker

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jul 2019
  • Posts: 5054
  • Total likes: 6390
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 2
    • View Profile
  • Location: As always, silence is NOT an admission of agreement on DDF. It just means that people lack the stamina to keep on arguing with made up "facts", illogical arguments, deceiving statements, nasty and degrading comments, and fuzzy math. - @yelped
Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1260 on: February 19, 2021, 12:27:03 PM »
2/3?? Don’t serological studies pretty much confirm this isn’t the case?

He has some backwards math equation extrapolating infections from assumptions about fatality rates.

ETA: His data is seemingly wildly speculative and inconsistent. First he says
Quote
Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

Then later
Quote
Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.

He also seems to be relying on an very generous prediction for vaccination rates:
Quote
Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2021, 12:36:49 PM by Lurker »
Failing at maintaining Lurker status.

Offline Traveler718

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jun 2010
  • Posts: 1220
  • Total likes: 693
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
    • View Profile
Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1261 on: February 19, 2021, 12:42:58 PM »
Update: The WSJ article I linked is now the lead store on Drudge. I knew it would spark discussion, but didn't realize it would go so viral so quickly. Looking forward to further analysis of his numbers and claims by our local DDF experts.

Offline S209

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2016
  • Posts: 7469
  • Total likes: 3930
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Gowns By Shevy
  • Location: Lakewood
  • Programs: Marriott Gold, Star Alliance Gold, Hyatt Explorist, Hertz PC, National EE, Rock Royalty Wild Card, Wyndham Diamond, MLife Gold, Caesars Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Uber VIP, IHG Platinum Elite, ANA Platinum, DDF Lifetime Prez Platinum Elite, AmEx Platinum
Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1262 on: February 19, 2021, 12:55:07 PM »
He has some backwards math equation extrapolating infections from assumptions about fatality rates.

ETA: His data is seemingly wildly speculative and inconsistent. First he says
Then later
He also seems to be relying on an very generous prediction for vaccination rates:
The only half decent math in there is the real chance of 250 million doses being administered by the end of March.
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline S209

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2016
  • Posts: 7469
  • Total likes: 3930
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Gowns By Shevy
  • Location: Lakewood
  • Programs: Marriott Gold, Star Alliance Gold, Hyatt Explorist, Hertz PC, National EE, Rock Royalty Wild Card, Wyndham Diamond, MLife Gold, Caesars Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Uber VIP, IHG Platinum Elite, ANA Platinum, DDF Lifetime Prez Platinum Elite, AmEx Platinum
Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1263 on: February 19, 2021, 12:56:04 PM »
Update: The WSJ article I linked is now the lead store on Drudge. I knew it would spark discussion, but didn't realize it would go so viral so quickly. Looking forward to further analysis of his numbers and claims by our local DDF experts.
It’s total garbage. See above.
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline ShimshonK

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Silver Elite
  • *****
  • Join Date: Nov 2018
  • Posts: 550
  • Total likes: 148
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
    • View Profile
Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1264 on: February 19, 2021, 02:36:30 PM »
https://www.wsj.com/articles/single-dose-of-pfizer-vaccine-is-85-effective-israeli-study-shows-11613723218
Quote
A single shot of the vaccine is 85% effective in preventing symptomatic disease 15 to 28 days after being administered, according to a peer-reviewed study conducted by the Israeli government-owned Sheba Medical Center and published in the Lancet medical journal.


Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1266 on: February 21, 2021, 01:47:15 AM »
https://www.wsj.com/articles/single-dose-of-pfizer-vaccine-is-85-effective-israeli-study-shows-11613723218

There are many flaws with Real World Data and a big one is network effects. Vaccinated people are much more likely to be around other vaccinated people than non-vaccinated people (Nursing homes - everybody vaccinated, Russian middle age - almost nobody vaccined, and social circles in between), so you don't know if the fact they didn't get infected is because their vaccine worked or the vaccine worked for those around them.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 30K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 30535
  • Total likes: 7832
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1267 on: February 21, 2021, 10:31:07 AM »
100% of Likes will be donated to support our brothers and sisters in Eretz Yisrael

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 30K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 30535
  • Total likes: 7832
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1268 on: February 23, 2021, 10:20:05 PM »
100% of Likes will be donated to support our brothers and sisters in Eretz Yisrael

Offline ExGingi

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Nov 2015
  • Posts: 15633
  • Total likes: 7723
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 19
    • View Profile
  • Location: 770
  • Programs: בשורת הגאולה. From Exile to Redemption. GIYF. AAdvantage Executive Platinum®
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 30K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 30535
  • Total likes: 7832
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
100% of Likes will be donated to support our brothers and sisters in Eretz Yisrael

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 30K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 30535
  • Total likes: 7832
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1271 on: February 24, 2021, 09:58:56 PM »
Variant-fearmongering, or a real concern deveoping?

Cluster of dangerous COVID variant B.1.526 found in upper Manhattan and dispersed in other parts of NYC. If it’s a real threat, just-before-Purim timing couldn’t have been worse, may Hashem watch over all of us.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/24/health/coronavirus-variant-nyc.html
100% of Likes will be donated to support our brothers and sisters in Eretz Yisrael

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1272 on: February 24, 2021, 10:32:34 PM »
Variant-fearmongering, or a real concern deveoping?

Cluster of dangerous COVID variant B.1.526 found in upper Manhattan and dispersed in other parts of NYC. If it’s a real threat, just-before-Purim timing couldn’t have been worse, may Hashem watch over all of us.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/24/health/coronavirus-variant-nyc.html

One thing that's for sure is that in the last 2-3 weeks NY numbers are worse than most other states, despite having been from the best for the 6-8 months prior.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 30K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 30535
  • Total likes: 7832
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1273 on: February 24, 2021, 10:38:56 PM »
One thing that's for sure is that in the last 2-3 weeks NY numbers are worse than most other states, despite having been from the best for the 6-8 months prior.

That’s true, and the first viable explanation I’ve heard.
100% of Likes will be donated to support our brothers and sisters in Eretz Yisrael

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1274 on: February 24, 2021, 10:52:56 PM »
That’s true, and the first viable explanation I’ve heard.
I think the prevalence of B.1.526 is fairly well established, but there isn't any credible indication of clinical significance, yet.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1275 on: March 01, 2021, 10:07:08 PM »
Variant-fearmongering, or a real concern deveoping?

Cluster of dangerous COVID variant B.1.526 found in upper Manhattan and dispersed in other parts of NYC. If it’s a real threat, just-before-Purim timing couldn’t have been worse, may Hashem watch over all of us.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/24/health/coronavirus-variant-nyc.html

https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1366581304800669700

This may have significant impact on NYC-TLV flights
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 30K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 30535
  • Total likes: 7832
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1276 on: March 01, 2021, 11:17:06 PM »
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1366581304800669700

This may have significant impact on NYC-TLV flights

Are challenge tests less of an ethical issue for testing a vaccinated person against variants?
100% of Likes will be donated to support our brothers and sisters in Eretz Yisrael

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1277 on: March 01, 2021, 11:47:07 PM »
https://twitter.com/gerlicl/status/1366487303649177601

Israeli AI predicated 80% of Covid positive individuals in a huge dataset. I didn’t see how many were falsely predicted to test positive.

It can dramatically revolutionize contact tracing
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 30K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 30535
  • Total likes: 7832
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1278 on: March 01, 2021, 11:50:30 PM »
https://twitter.com/gerlicl/status/1366487303649177601

Israeli AI predicated 80% of Covid positive individuals in a huge dataset. I didn’t see how many were falsely predicted to test positive.

It can dramatically revolutionize contact tracing

“AI” is a buzzword. What data did this algorithm have access to? Is similar data even available in other countries?
100% of Likes will be donated to support our brothers and sisters in Eretz Yisrael

Offline PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 14958
  • Total likes: 2421
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 11
    • View Profile
Re: Interesting Articles: COVID-19 Edition
« Reply #1279 on: March 01, 2021, 11:55:46 PM »
“AI” is a buzzword. What data did this algorithm have access to? Is similar data even available in other countries?
The preprint in the link details the data. In this is case the AI/machine learning term is accurate, being that the model compares infection episodes to previous positive tests in the same location and other similarities.

The info should be available anywhere with centralized healthcare, which is pretty much every developed country other than the US.

Are challenge tests less of an ethical issue for testing a vaccinated person against variants?
Yup, UK already started one.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56097088
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים