2/3?? Don’t serological studies pretty much confirm this isn’t the case?
Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.
Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.
Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.
He has some backwards math equation extrapolating infections from assumptions about fatality rates.ETA: His data is seemingly wildly speculative and inconsistent. First he saysThen laterHe also seems to be relying on an very generous prediction for vaccination rates:
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.
Update: The WSJ article I linked is now the lead store on Drudge. I knew it would spark discussion, but didn't realize it would go so viral so quickly. Looking forward to further analysis of his numbers and claims by our local DDF experts.
A single shot of the vaccine is 85% effective in preventing symptomatic disease 15 to 28 days after being administered, according to a peer-reviewed study conducted by the Israeli government-owned Sheba Medical Center and published in the Lancet medical journal.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/single-dose-of-pfizer-vaccine-is-85-effective-israeli-study-shows-11613723218
https://nypost.com/2021/02/18/single-pfizer-moderna-vaccine-dose-nearly-as-effective-as-two/https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2036242
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/02/23/newborn-child-covid-variant-viral-load/?outputType=amp
Variant-fearmongering, or a real concern deveoping?Cluster of dangerous COVID variant B.1.526 found in upper Manhattan and dispersed in other parts of NYC. If it’s a real threat, just-before-Purim timing couldn’t have been worse, may Hashem watch over all of us.https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/24/health/coronavirus-variant-nyc.html
One thing that's for sure is that in the last 2-3 weeks NY numbers are worse than most other states, despite having been from the best for the 6-8 months prior.
That’s true, and the first viable explanation I’ve heard.
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1366581304800669700This may have significant impact on NYC-TLV flights
https://twitter.com/gerlicl/status/1366487303649177601Israeli AI predicated 80% of Covid positive individuals in a huge dataset. I didn’t see how many were falsely predicted to test positive. It can dramatically revolutionize contact tracing
“AI” is a buzzword. What data did this algorithm have access to? Is similar data even available in other countries?
Are challenge tests less of an ethical issue for testing a vaccinated person against variants?