This is getting serious... a somber thread about COVID-19

[yuneeq]

We are around 1.4%? That should go down with more testing, no?

I wish I could say yes. But no, it will go up. These 2 data sources are our best case scenarios, at least few weeks after the outbreak started to die down in those places. 9 days ago South Korea was at 0.9%. They didn’t have any overloaded hospitals. In the US the death rate is going down because we’re still infecting way too many people each day. But time will tell the truth. If we somehow don’t overload hospitals, we shouldn’t expect better than 1.4%. But if we do, and we’re right at the brink...

[Shmobaum]

Village of KJ released a letter bashing Dr. Zelenko.

https://twitter.com/hasidic_1/status/1242496162042609667?s=20

I’m sorry but they have nothing against him. Their only claim is that he said that KJ is 90% positive which I believe is absolutely true same with Lakewood,BP Williamsburg. Everyone I know has some symptoms whether it’s no smell or taste, very sore throat etc etc. I believe that if everyone in our communities would get tested the number would be very close to 90%...
We were all together up until last week Tuesday...(probably even later...)

[aygart]

I’m sorry but they have nothing against him. Their only claim is that he said that KJ is 90% positive which I believe is absolutely true same with Lakewood,BP Williamsburg. Everyone I know has some symptoms whether it’s no smell or taste, very sore throat etc etc. I believe that if everyone in our communities would get tested the number would be very close to 90%...

That is not borne out by the testing in BP

[Shmobaum]

That is not borne out by the testing in BP

Let me repeat. They’re only testing ppl with high fever/shortness of breath.
Had they tested everyone with the milder symptoms the number would 90%. Common sense as everyone was together crammed in stores and shuls and what not

[yuneeq]

Let me repeat. They’re only testing ppl with high fever/shortness of breath.
Had they tested everyone with the milder symptoms the number would 90%. Common sense as everyone was together crammed in stores and shuls and what not

Do you understand what you, or aygart are saying?
If testing in BP, which presumably included people more likely to test as they had symptoms, and they still only found a 10% positive rate, how will testing people with more mild symptoms than the people tested, show a higher percentage?

[Shmobaum]

Do you understand what you, or aygart are saying?
If testing in BP, which presumably included people more likely to test as they had symptoms, and they still only found a 10% positive rate, how will testing people with more mild symptoms than the people tested, show a higher percentage?

“Presumably “. You don’t have the facts straight. As I said they’re only gonna test you if you have fever/shortness of breath.

[yuneeq]

“Presumably “. You don’t have the facts straight. As I said they’re only gonna test you if you have fever/shortness of breath.

You want to say that people that at least have the most common symptoms of fever or shortness of breath, only test positive 10% of the time, but people with more mild or uncommon symptoms or perhaps asymptomatic, would raise the amount of positives tests results above 90%.

Don’t be an idiot or a troll.

[Shmobaum]

You want to say that people that at least have the most common symptoms of fever or shortness of breath, only test positive 10% of the time, but people with more mild or uncommon symptoms or perhaps asymptomatic, would raise the amount of positives tests results above 90%.

Don’t be an idiot or a troll.

Sudden loss of smell and taste in young patients most definitely will be covid. Ma shein kein fever is a common year round ill symptom. Chop?
(Thanks for keeping the somber spirit in your replies)

[yuneeq]

Sudden loss of smell and taste in young patients most definitely will be covid. Ma shein kein fever is a common year round ill symptom. Chop?
(Thanks for keeping the somber spirit in your replies)

I spoke to people that lost sense of smell, they also had fever at some point. Possibly others didn’t.
But if you think you can test 10k people and find 90% with corona, you’re just delusional. You’re also delusional if you think loss of smell is the only symptom worth testing for.

[Shmobaum]

I spoke to people that lost sense of smell, they also had fever at some point. Possibly others didn’t.
But if you think you can test 10k people and find 90% with corona, you’re just delusional. You’re also delusional if you think loss of smell is the only symptom worth testing for.

I never said that nose going offline is the only symptom to be tested. But that would definitely catch all the stealth-carriers of the virus as per>>> https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-symptoms-loss-of-smell-taste-covid-19-anosmia-hyposmia-2020-3

[aygart]

I never said that nose going offline is the only symptom to be tested. But that would definitely catch all the stealth-carriers of the virus as per>>> https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-symptoms-loss-of-smell-taste-covid-19-anosmia-hyposmia-2020-3

You are having a hard time with math.

[avromie7]

You want to say that people that at least have the most common symptoms of fever or shortness of breath, only test positive 10% of the time, but people with more mild or uncommon symptoms or perhaps asymptomatic, would raise the amount of positives tests results above 90%.

Don’t be an idiot or a troll.

Nationwide it's 10%, in NY it's 28%.

[Lurker]

“Presumably “. You don’t have the facts straight. As I said they’re only gonna test you if you have fever/shortness of breath.

You are saying that:

A) you know many people have it, and that the 90% number given for KJ is accurate for KJ, CH, BP, and other tri-state Frum communities.

B) the reason the numbers of confirmed cases are so low is because they are only testing people with more blatant symptoms.

What @aygart is telling you is that of those people in B who are getting tested because of blatant symptoms, only 10% are testing positive. So it stands to reason that those with less blatant symptoms would not be more likely to test positive. Ergo, the 90% number you threw out there is the grossly exaggerated, per the numbers currently available to us.

As an aside, I've been told by a doctor at Johns Hopkins who's been working with covid-19 patients for months in the US and Italy, that the tests to date are only 50-60% accurate, with many, many false negatives.

[aygart]

Nationwide it's 10%, in NY it's 28%.

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en/test?state=NY
14.5%

[avromie7]

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en/test?state=NY
14.5%

I got my number from here. https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york/

[chevron]

I got my number from here. https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york/

these are very scary numbers It shows that more people are testing positive by the day and more people are being hospitalized by the day.

[flatbush guy]

The problem with the 90% number is that it was based on 14 tests.
He himself has said 60% now.
I believe the real numbers are much higher than the official ones, but not anything close to 90%
A doctor in Israel said on Israeli tv today that the Weitzman insitute in israel thinks that between a half and one percent of israel population is positive.
That would equal 45 to about 90 k
the official numbers are about 2 k
Reasonable to assume that the numbers in nyc and other chareidi locations would be similar because of similar traits.
AND maybe it is much higher than that in Chareidy neighborhoods.Without testing its difficult to know

[hvaces42]

Mount Sinai lost a nurse who contracted the virus. Terrible. Will not let my daughter apply for any of the well paying nursing jobs until PPE and personal safety is guaranteed. Theyre offering nurses $95 an hour for 4x12 shifts for 8 weeks.

[ckmk47]

The problem with the 90% number is that it was based on 14 tests.
He himself has said 60% now.

The problem with the 90% number, was that he did the math wrong.  9 positive out of 14 tested is 64%.  So now he concedes it's only 60%.
It doesn't give me great confidence in his medical advice.

[YitzyS]

https://www.thelakewoodscoop.com/news/2020/03/letter-i-didnt-take-this-mageifa-seriously-until-my-brother-in-law-was-rushed-to-the-hospital.html