How many COVID-19 Cases Did China Really Have?

[hvaces42]

With the US supposedly surpassing China lets do a little exercise in guessing how many cases China really had.

[shwarmabob]

nobody has any idea. they can tell you any number they find convenient
would they even count the people who die in reeducation camps that "don't exist"

[zale]

I believe they had a lot more than they claimed, but not in the millions. I believe that if it were in the millions it would be impossible to hide. The fact is that despite China's ban on reporting, information still trickles out. You can't stop 1.4 billion people from sharing information.

As for lying about the numbers, to an extent it can be fudged. Since 90% of fatalities are the elderly, they can always attribute the cause of death to natural aging, cardiac etc. Even here, I'm seeing names of elderly that have clearly succumbed to Corona R"L, but they make no mention of it. All they really need to account for are the young, which make up a small percentage of fatalities. I can see them hiding a few hundred thousand cases, but not millions. Though I've been wrong before, and I can be wrong again.

[hvaces42]

I believe they had a lot more than they claimed, but not in the millions. I believe that if it were in the millions it would be impossible to hide. The fact is that despite China's ban on reporting, information still trickles out. You can't stop 1.4 billion people from sharing information.

As for lying about the numbers, to an extent it can be fudged. Since 90% of fatalities are the elderly, they can always attribute the cause of death to natural aging, cardiac etc. Even here, I'm seeing names of elderly that have clearly succumbed to Corona R"L, but they make no mention of it. All they really need to account for are the young, which make up a small percentage of fatalities. I can see them hiding a few hundred thousand cases, but not millions. Though I've been wrong before, and I can be wrong again.

Coding deaths is one thing. Its clear as day they lied and big time. You can probably add 2 zeros to every number they released if not 3 zeros. If we lost 1,000 in a few days they lost 1,000,000 in the 6 months this has been going on.

They probably categorized the people that died of starvation in the welded shut apartments as died of natural causes instead of as corona victims.

[S209]

I believe they had a lot more than they claimed, but not in the millions. I believe that if it were in the millions it would be impossible to hide. The fact is that despite China's ban on reporting, information still trickles out. You can't stop 1.4 billion people from sharing information.

As for lying about the numbers, to an extent it can be fudged. Since 90% of fatalities are the elderly, they can always attribute the cause of death to natural aging, cardiac etc. Even here, I'm seeing names of elderly that have clearly succumbed to Corona R"L, but they make no mention of it. All they really need to account for are the young, which make up a small percentage of fatalities. I can see them hiding a few hundred thousand cases, but not millions. Though I've been wrong before, and I can be wrong again.

Agree with everything you said.

About the elderly dying here, I have some theories, ranging from the reasonable to a wacky conspiracy theory. But there are definitely an extraordinary number of deaths that are officially not corona related.

[balderdash]

When some people can have mild to no symptoms, comparing countries by case #s is tricky. Let alone different reporting standards (China some time ago only counted cases where they could also see chest symptoms - so explicitly undercounting). In the US they are prioritizing testing of course so they aren't confirming many likely cases

Nonetheless, once there is an antibody test available we will get a transparent and accurate estimate of the spread; in China they probably will do the same study but will not publicize the real figures

Epidemiologists have been trying to estimate the true # of cases now as it is an important factor to model the future growth of the pandemic. We should all be *hoping* it has spread a lot lot more than confirmed, since that means we are that much closer to getting to the end of it...

[hvaces42]

When some people can have mild to no symptoms, comparing countries by case #s is tricky. Let alone different reporting standards (China some time ago only counted cases where they could also see chest symptoms - so explicitly undercounting). In the US they are prioritizing testing of course so they aren't confirming many likely cases

Nonetheless, once there is an antibody test available we will get a transparent and accurate estimate of the spread; in China they probably will do the same study but will not publicize the real figures

Epidemiologists have been trying to estimate the true # of cases now as it is an important factor to model the future growth of the pandemic. We should all be *hoping* it has spread a lot lot more than confirmed, since that means we are that much closer to getting to the end of it...

How many tests have actually been performed in the US? What % are positive? I's venture to guess we have 10x the number of tested positives in NYC for sure. 

[AsherO]

We should all be *hoping* it has spread a lot lot more than confirmed, since that means we are that much closer to getting to the end of it...

Does antibodies automatically mean the person is no longer ill and no longer contagious?

[hvaces42]

Does antibodies automatically mean the person is no longer ill and no longer contagious?

I'm hearing 72 hours after all symptoms are gone one is no longer contagious. But who really knows?

[AsherO]

I'm hearing 72 hours after all symptoms are gone one is no longer contagious. But who really knows?

They’re saying the longer of 72h after symptoms end or 7d after symptoms start, and you’re right, nobody really knows.

But I’m asking about antibodies specifically. Does the body start producing sufficient antibodies to test positive before the illness is no longer a risk to the person himself or to anyone else via contagion?

[ExGingi]

I'm hearing 72 hours after all symptoms are gone one is no longer contagious. But who really knows?

I hear that too all over, but after my brief visit to the ER last week I was told I needed to self-isolate until I am symptom free for 48 hours.

That being said, I'm not sure what symptoms they are talking about, as I have been fever free since just before my visit to the ER, and I saw somewhere that they look at that as a symptom to be free of. Despite being fever free I was still feeling cold for several days, and was extremely exhausted and weak.

[chbochur]

I hear that too all over, but after my brief visit to the ER last week I was told I needed to self-isolate until I am symptom free for 48 hours.

That being said, I'm not sure what symptoms they are talking about, as I have been fever free since just before my visit to the ER, and I saw somewhere that they look at that as a symptom to be free of. Despite being fever free I was still feeling cold for several days, and was extremely exhausted and weak.

Dr Rosen has been saying no fever for 72 hours and once symptom free but it must be at least 7 days from onset.

[ExGingi]

Dr Rosen has been saying no fever for 72 hours and once symptom free but it must be at least 7 days from onset.

I've had no fever for 72 hours way before 7 days from onset were over.

[AsherO]

I've had no fever for 72 hours way before 7 days from onset were over.

Perhaps you should volunteer to donate antibodies, then you can find out for sure.

[yuneeq]

With the US supposedly surpassing China lets do a little exercise in guessing how many cases China really had.

It’s not like the unconfirmed US numbers are any better. I’d say either country might be ahead right now, but by next week it will be US by a mile.

[hvaces42]

It’s not like the unconfirmed US numbers are any better. I’d say either country might be ahead right now, but by next week it will be US by a mile.

For sure. As i said elsewhere...we are 10x untested positives.

[yitzgar]

How many tests have actually been performed in the US? What % are positive? I's venture to guess we have 10x the number of tested positives in NYC for sure.

In Ohio 4.8 percent of tests are positive. Out of about 15k

[AsherO]

In Ohio 4.8 percent of tests are positive. Out of about 15k

How many of those tests are for medical professionals/responders? It sounds to me like ratios like that tell you that they have adequate testing capacity in Ohio.

[etech0]

Dr Rosen has been saying no fever for 72 hours and once symptom free but it must be at least 7 days from onset.

That's what the CDC said also I believe

[AsherO]

That's what the CDC said also I believe

Interesting that NYC hospital discharge would say something different than the CDC. Why isn’t (state) DoH or (city) DoHHS or whatever on the same page as the CDC?